ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i would take a rainstorm at this point and a flash freeze would be great to keep the pack around and make it bullet proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i would take a rainstorm at this point and a flash freeze would be great to keep the pack around and make it bullet proof No. Another month of Winter snows followed by a milder dry period would be best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 hoping it stays cold then we can a ton of rain and warm weather kind of looking forward to the ice jams No. Another month of Winter snows followed by a milder dry period would be best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A cutter ia alleviation? Couldn't be more of the opposite. Say bye to your roofs, thanks euro! We are at the Mercy of Mother Nature right now I think we are going to have to thread the needle to get out of this snowpack without some sort of dis as tah. To me I think the absolute worst would be a pounding rain storm (wether it is 35F rain or 55F rain, both have their downsides for potential impact) followed by a fast return to -20 850's. Then a repeat of that in another 5 days. With Ice dams all that water falling on roofs will find a way down, so unless you have created a valley ( A break somewhere in the ice damming) for water to fall to the ground, the water will find it's way thru the roof into houses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior. Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out WPC still is waiting for GFS to get on board weekend storm till it buys a ticket http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1424122179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior. At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo. Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH. Much weaker system on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out If things break right, this pack will present the opportunity for historic flooding around here. Time a cutoff Rainer with new moon and Peabody will be done for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo. Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH. Much weaker system on ensembles. Yeah it's weak luckily. Still don't buy it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I just did a quick number crunch based on GEFS output for my area. I ADDED ten degrees due to outputs over snow cover being crazy. GEFS says I average 12 degrees for the rest of Feb. That would be astonishingly 20 degrees below normal, saying I would finish -15 for the month. The combo of record snow and record cold is totally unprecedented. Look at how much BHO blew away their Jan Feb record BHO Snowiest January-February, inches (1886-2015): 1) 114.2 in 2015 (through Feb 15 at 1:00 PM EST) 2) 77.9 in 1948 3) 70.2 in 2005 4) 68.7 in 1904 5) 67.5 in 1920 6) 66.9 in 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out WPC still is waiting for GFS to get on board weekend storm till it buys a ticket http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1424122179 Amazing the amount of roofs that haven't even been touched; any liquid precip at this point would be disastrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If things break right, this pack will present the opportunity for historic flooding around here. Time a cutoff Rainer with new moon and Peabody will be done for days. ahhhhh lol and then follow it up with a deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo. Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH. Much weaker system on ensembles. In 78 with a pack that was 6 inches w/e it was epically boring for 6 weeks and things just melted quietly. Unfortunately I don"t see that happening , instead the pack will grow and saturate more and more until the warmth overcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. Blue Hills Observatory, just south of BOS at 500' ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. Blue Hill Observatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. Blue Hill Observatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am the ultimate weenie but this ain"t going to end good, that extensive extended cold is not matched in history here. Theres ALWAYS been at least 2-3 days of thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. Blue Hill Observatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Also our indices that are heavily touted here from CPC are GEFS derived. There are two other sets of guidance that don't always agree. Are these GEFS derived as well ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In 78 with a pack that was 6 inches w/e it was epically boring for 6 weeks and things just melted quietly. Unfortunately I don"t see that happening , instead the pack will grow and saturate more and more until the warmth overcomes. After the blizzard of 78, there was no activity for a month. Then there was an early march storm that dumped 6-10 and I think that was it. I was in town for the march event and it was still on top of impressive depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Where is BHO? Google says... BHO Airport, Raja Bhoj International Airport, Bhopal, India. He was pulling a Dentrite, sending everyone to google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior. Each run trickles farther and farther east. How many times have we seen this play out? It's a SWFE that ends as 32-33 and drizzle then quick freeze up..Nothing melts..we add weight and density to the pack and track the one after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is the defining comparison month 1934, below is BOS 2015, below that is 1934 DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 30 12 21 -9 44 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.8 22 270 M M 4 29 270 2 31 10 21 -9 44 0 0.78 16.2 M 18.0 36 50 M M 10 1289 45 50 3 22 6 14 -16 51 0 0.00 0.0 M 13.0 24 300 M M 3 89 33 300 4 38 14 26 -4 39 0 0.01 0.0 M 9.3 20 230 M M 8 26 220 5 36 7 22 -8 43 0 0.09 0.8 M 14.7 30 320 M M 8 18 40 310 6 21 5 13 -17 52 0 T T M 11.5 21 300 M M 4 29 300 7 29 16 23 -7 42 0 0.07 0.9 M 10.7 20 240 M M 8 1 26 230 8 29 13 21 -10 44 0 0.37 7.4 M 13.5 22 30 M M 10 1 28 40 9 25 14 20 -11 45 0 0.88 14.8 M 15.0 26 30 M M 10 129 32 20 10 30 14 22 -9 43 0 0.05 0.7 M 11.2 21 360 M M 8 19 24 350 11 25 14 20 -11 45 0 0.01 0.5 M 11.7 23 20 M M 8 189 31 40 12 30 16 23 -8 42 0 0.03 1.0 M 5.3 16 330 M M 9 18 21 330 13 22 7 15 -16 50 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.5 28 290 M M 3 8 37 300 14 30 3 17 -15 48 0 0.23 3.2 M 9.7 22 120 M M 7 1 24 320 15 20 -2 9 -23 56 0 0.39 13.0 M 20.7 33 310 M M 7 129 51 280 ================================================================================ SM 418 149 688 0 2.91 58.5 191.6 M 107 ================================================================================ AV 27.9 9.9 12.8 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 36 50 # 51 280 ============================================================================= 1934-02-01 37 29 33.0 32 0 0.50 6.5 1 1934-02-02 30 8 19.0 46 0 0.11 1.3 7 1934-02-03 22 3 12.5 52 0 0.00 0.0 6 1934-02-04 22 8 15.0 50 0 0.10 1.1 6 1934-02-05 21 9 15.0 50 0 0.00 0.0 5 1934-02-06 17 3 10.0 55 0 T T 5 1934-02-07 24 1 12.5 52 0 T T 5 1934-02-08 14 -12 1.0 64 0 0.00 0.0 4 1934-02-09 3 -18 -7.5 72 0 0.00 0.0 4 1934-02-10 25 -2 11.5 53 0 0.00 0.0 4 1934-02-11 35 15 25.0 40 0 0.00 0.0 3 1934-02-12 39 24 31.5 33 0 0.00 M 3 1934-02-13 35 5 20.0 45 0 T T 3 1934-02-14 19 -3 8.0 57 0 0.00 0.0 3 1934-02-15 44 13 28.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 T 1934-02-16 16 2 9.0 56 0 0.00 0.0 T 1934-02-17 26 12 19.0 46 0 T T T 1934-02-18 33 10 21.5 43 0 0.00 0.0 0 1934-02-19 41 24 32.5 32 0 0.47 2.0 T 1934-02-20 32 14 23.0 42 0 1.87 13.0 15 1934-02-21 36 10 23.0 42 0 0.00 0.0 12 1934-02-22 44 25 34.5 30 0 0.03 0.0 10 1934-02-23 40 11 25.5 39 0 0.52 0.0 7 1934-02-24 14 3 8.5 56 0 0.00 0.0 7 1934-02-25 19 3 11.0 54 0 0.09 1.0 7 1934-02-26 23 11 17.0 48 0 0.76 8.0 15 1934-02-27 19 8 13.5 51 0 0.00 0.0 14 1934-02-28 29 4 16.5 48 0 0.00 0.0 13 Sum 759 220 - 1324 0 4.45 32.9 - Average 27.1 7.9 17.5 - - - - 5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 High temp of 3 in Boston, Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Blue Hills Observatory, just south of BOS at 500' ish. Blue Hill Observatory Blue Hill Observatory. Blue Hill Observatory. Thanks guys... should've been able to figure that one out on my own. Seems so obvious now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Each run trickles farther and farther east. How many times have we seen this play out? It's a SWFE that ends as 32-33 and drizzle then quick freeze up..Nothing melts..we add weight and density to the pack and track the one after it I actually think you are right, haha...this one isn't cutting. The long wave pattern has been too stable. This cold has some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I actually think you are right, haha...this one isn't cutting. The long wave pattern has been too stable. This cold has some staying power. The cold and the snowpack say no warm cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I just did a quick number crunch based on GEFS output for my area. I ADDED ten degrees due to outputs over snow cover being crazy. GEFS says I average 12 degrees for the rest of Feb. That would be astonishingly 20 degrees below normal, saying I would finish -15 for the month. The combo of record snow and record cold is totally unprecedented. Look at how much BHO blew away their Jan Feb record BHO Snowiest January-February, inches (1886-2015): 1) 114.2 in 2015 (through Feb 15 at 1:00 PM EST) 2) 77.9 in 1948 3) 70.2 in 2005 4) 68.7 in 1904 5) 67.5 in 1920 6) 66.9 in 1994 114 in two months. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mets agree Eric Fisher @ericfisher 12m12 minutes ago @BruceDePrest Just seems really unlikely given all the cold/snowpack and current pattern. 0 replies0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More Joe DelliCarpini @JoeDawg42 3m3 minutes ago @ericfisher @BruceDePrest Agree. Remember, this past storm was originally tracking west of us on both Euro and GFS (day 5 fcst) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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