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1/25-1/27 Clipper-Miller B Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF

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Final call for DC proper (though I'll still update tomorrow). Confidence - LOW

The Skinny - Light rain/snow/sleet in the morning hours, tapering as we head toward lunch. Dusting to 1". Then a "warm" lull with light intermittent precip. Snow redevelops late afternoon/early evening and we drop to freezing or below. Goes into late evening or after midnight. 1-2"

Storm Total through Noon Tuesday.

Chance of no accumulation - 25%

Chance of at least a dusting but less than 1" - 75%

At least 1" - 50%

At least 2" - 35%

At least 3" - 20%

At least 4" - 10%

This will be interesting as you fined tuned it and can grade it out.

I think it's just too unpredictable right now. Nothing has even really happened it; call it the crawler clipper.

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fyi, GFS gave HGR .30" qpf between 7PM and 1AM

 

 

right now, they stand at .05 from 7PM-11PM and there's nothing falling

 

 

have no idea what it means, if anything, but I hope it means the models are too strong on the primary and too weak on the coastal http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHGR.html

They might be at .05 now but they wont be for long. radar is growing and growing fast. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LWX

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it's not like PA is getting crushed with snow

all but one is reporting light snow that has snow

PENNSYLVANIA OBSERVATIONS for Sun Jan 25 at 11:00 PM EST                   T  TD  RH    WIND   GUST ALSTG  SLP   VIS  CLOUDS  WX   PR6 PR24 SC   Station         F   F   % deg    kts kts in Hg   mb    mi 100ftCOV      in   in  inALLENTOWN-BETH    30  16  55  30 at   9     29.97 1015.1  10  48  OVC                    ...KABE ALTOONA/BLAIR     31  30  96  40 at   7     29.80 1010.6 1.8   7  OVC S-                 ...KAOO BRADFORD          15   5  64  60 at   6     29.83 1013.1  10  50  OVC                    ...KBFD BUTLER            27  25  93  40 at  10     29.80        2.5  19  OVC                    ...KBTP DU BOIS           24  21  88  60 at   8     29.79 1011.1 0.8  19   X  S-                 ...KDUJ ERIE              17   6  61  50 at  17     29.94 1014.9  10 100  OVC                    ...KERI FRANKLIN          21  14  73  30 at   7     29.84          3  30  OVC                    ...KFKL HARRISBURG        34  31  88  80 at   9     29.90 1012.9 1.5   6  OVC S-                 ...KCXY JOHNSTOWN         30  28  92  80 at   5     29.73 1009.0 1.0   5  OVC S-                 ...KJST LANCASTER         33  29  84  70 at  12     29.90 1012.9   3  12  OVC S-                 ...KLNS LATROBE           32  32 100 360 at   3     29.78        0.8   1  OVC S-                 ...KLBE MIDDLETOWN        33  31  92  80 at   6     29.89 1012.7 1.8   8  OVC S-                 ...KMDT MT POCONO         20   7  57  10 at   6     29.87 1014.2  10  60  OVC                    ...KMPO MUIR AAF          30  28  91  50 at   6     29.92 1013.9   4  23  OVC S-                 ...KMUI PHILADELPHIA N    36  19  50  60 at  11     29.97 1015.0  10  33  OVC                    ...KPNE PHILADELPHIA      35  28  75  70 at   7     29.96 1014.5  10  19  OVC S-                 ...KPHL PITTSBURGH        30  27  88  20 at   5     29.75 1009.1 0.8   4  OVC S-                 ...KAGC PITTSBURGH        30  29  96  40 at   6     29.77 1010.0 0.5   8  OVC S                  ...KPIT READING           31  24  76  50 at   6     29.94 1014.6   8  26  OVC S-                 ...KRDG STATE COLLEGE     26  24  89  40 at  12     29.87        1.8   9  OVC S-                 ...KUNV WASHINGTON        32  30  93  50 at   4     29.77        2.5   5  OVC                    ...KAFJ WILKES-BARRE      21   6  52  10 at   7     29.97 1015.7  10  60  OVC                    ...KAVP WILLIAMSPORT      24  16  71  40 at   6     29.98 1015.7   3  34  OVC S-                 ...KIPT 
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fyi, GFS gave HGR .30" qpf between 7PM and 1AM

 

 

right now, they stand at .05 from 7PM-11PM and there's nothing falling

 

 

have no idea what it means, if anything, but I hope it means the models are too strong on the primary and too weak on the coastal http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHGR.html

 

According to Accuweather text I should be waking up to 3 inches and snow falling at 12z tomorrow. It had .24 falling between 0z and 6z and has another .24 falling between 6z and 12z. Not exactly solid modeling.

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According to Accuweather text I should be waking up to 3 inches and snow falling at 12z tomorrow. It had .24 falling between 0z and 6z and has another .24 falling between 6z and 12z. Not exactly solid modeling.

I'm starting to hope it all falls apart for everyone so Ma Nature can humble a few

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anyone notice how there's a lot of convergence in the Gulf/Mexico south of FL along with strong pressure drops?

 

you can get both links from this kink which is the convergence

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=qc&inv=0&t=cur

 

Yeah nice view of that here.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-animated.gif

 

 

You would think this is the start of the coastal???

avn-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/ft-animated.gif

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