Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[phil882]

How are the short range models looking? Like the HRRR etc?

 

Not quite in the time range yet, but its showing a nice band of precip over PA, similar to the global and mesoscale guidance. 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt

 

 

P.S.... I'm probably going to shift my grid soon in anticipation for the upcoming event. Should I move it over KJFK? Also will be adding some new products hopefully (e.g. frontogenesis) if I can get this working tonight!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The SREFs are pretty close to reality. Having over 24" of snow for NYC seems a bit absurd. So 18-24" of snow is looking likely. 

[gravitylover]

Thanks for the disco billgwx.  It's been a while, since Ekster left I think, that we've had significant input from anyone at Upton on the board.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That easterly jet is why I'm convinced a number of people will see more than 30". That's going to set up some incredible snow banding where it'll snow 4"+ per hour easy. That's a direct fetch from the Atlantic being lifted by the explosive cyclogenesis.

That's exactly what this storm will be remembered for. Similar to February 13 but further west. I really believe someone in this sub forum cracks 40". If that's in the city!!!!!!!!!!

[forkyfork]

Yes. The one inch line is just east of Phl this run..it tighten up a bit

i expect a boxing day like gradient on the west side. tighter than what models show

[lman]

Define "analysis" 

 

Btw, if one wants to see for their own eyes, the SREF's are available here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

 

And the plumes here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=40.567809858963095&mLON=-73.70683348999023&mTYP=roadmap

 

You can change the plume to your location by clicking on the map. You also have to change to the most recent run at the top of the screen. 21z is just coming out.

For PNE the mean is 1.19 total QPF, PHL is .97 QPF mean.

[gravitylover]

I've been talking about it all day, and JB as well as JC and a few others believe many will see 20:1/30:1 ratios overnight Monday into Tuesday.. Even someone at 1.0qpf could end up at 18-20"

billgwx explained the reasoning, strong winds tend to break the crystals up into smaller pieces thereby reducing the ratios.

[+SNfreak21]

The SREFs are pretty close to reality. Having over 24" of snow for NYC seems a bit absurd. So 18-24" of snow is looking likely. 

Deformation bands with heavy rates could easily push totals over 24"

[Allsnow]

i expect a boxing day like gradient on the west side. tighter than what models show

Agree...I also saw december 2000 thrown around nw jersey is going to be a hard forcast.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The SREFs are pretty close to reality. Having over 24" of snow for NYC seems a bit absurd. So 18-24" of snow is looking likely.

All depends where the deform band sets up. No reason that isn't in the city. If so it's 30"+ there if not you're right

[jm1220]

I've been talking about it all day, and JB as well as JC and a few others believe many will see 20:1/30:1 ratios overnight Monday into Tuesday.. Even someone at 1.0qpf could end up at 18-20"

Ratios will likely be higher inland where the winds will be lighter. The wind cuts down on ratios-it should be 12:1 or so near the coast. The 20 and 30:1 stuff is really only for LES. 

[Superstorm93]

Deformation bands with heavy rates could easily push totals over 24"

 

And ten miles west you could have half that. Like forky said, there should be a cutoff that resembles the BDB. Where it sets up is key, and right now things are far from a lock. 

[BoulderWX]

20.5" for LGA on plumes, down from 22" - whats an inch or two among friends..

[SleetStormNJ]

It looks like it might have moved about 25 miles east with the cutoff in NJ

 

SREF plumes have 17.8 in mean for EWR.  Slight cutback from the barn-burner mean earlier this morning.  But it's all relative at this point honestly.

 

We just need that moisture feed off the Atlantic and the gradient to do it's dirty work by us.

[jm1220]

Agree...I also saw december 2000 thrown around nw jersey is going to be a hard forcast.

These kind of storms which blow up offshore always have very tight gradients. What goes up must come down west of the snow shield. 

[SACRUS]

1/26 00Z Summary

 

NYC : QPF (snowfall)

 

SREF: 1.10 - 1.40  (>18")

[David-LI]

is the NAM taking longer than usual to start?

[SnowGoose69]

is the NAM taking longer than usual to start?

 

It seemed about 5 minutes late, it just started.

[SleetStormNJ]

Ratios will likely be higher inland where the winds will be lighter. The wind cuts down on ratios-it should be 12:1 or so near the coast. The 20 and 30:1 stuff is really only for LES. 

 

There's really going to be two tough zones.  There's going to be a sharp cutoff west somewhere.  My guess is probably Ern. PA where you see precipitous dropoffs from even high ratios saving you.

 

But somebody in parts of LI and even up into CT and MA, there will be some subsidence specials where you get half of what you were expecting or what somebody in the next couple towns over gets with a killer band and probably and somebody else on Tuesday morning with pretty crummy snow growth and light snow for a few hours.  

[Absolute Humidity]

BLM plumes dropped 2" from last run, this is all model noise SREFs appear locked and loaded

[Bobby]

As stated you likely won't see ratios over the city and Island over 12:1. And let's be honest if the winds forecasted prove out its going to be very difficult to find a spot to accurately measure the snowfall. I'm supposed to fly into LGA Tuesday at noon which is likely not happening lol. And I also feel as some others do that 24" May likey be a top measurement out on the island in the usual areas.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

As stated you likely won't see ratios over the city and Island over 12:1. And let's be honest if the winds forecasted prove out its going to be very difficult to find a spot to accurately measure the snowfall. I'm supposed to fly into LGA Tuesday at noon which is likely not happening lol. And I also feel as some others do that 24" May likey be a top measurement out on the island in the usual areas.

Even with 850s that cold?

[Absolute Humidity]

But only one SREF has me at my high end of offical forecast , on member 35.5" three more are above 30" not bad

[Bobby]

Yes as Bill said you need to look at winds aloft at 850, not just the temps. I am curious to see where the western cutoff falls as I think just east of there could see some impressive totals as ratios should be highest and winds lower.

[Rtd208]

If you overanalyze every model run and live and die by every model run you will drive yourself crazy. I am liking the 18-24" numbers with some areas recieving up to 30". More then 30" is certainly not out of the realm of possibilty either.

[Allsnow]

Nam out to hr 16 light snow in area

[IsentropicLift]

00z NAM gets snow in here in about 6 hours.

[jm1220]

Even with 850s that cold?

Ratios would work out more if the wind was lighter. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The NAM looks to be going for a better approach. The Moderate Snow is already pushing towards Coastal NJ @HR 17.

[MikeS]

00z NAM gets snow in here in about 6 hours.

Tomorrow is going to be a commuting nightmare.