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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

1/26 00Z Summary

 

NYC : QPF (snowfall)

 

SREF: 1.10 - 1.40  (>18")

NAM:  0.85 - 1.15  (>12")

REM: 0.81 - 1.05  (>11")

SACRUS - love these summaries.  Thinking it might be cool to show both the 12Z and 00Z runs side by side so that people can look for trends in precip at NYC as a bit of a surrogate for the storm.  Whaddya think?

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

I think its getting to the point that even if the recent model runs are too far east, a slight westward correction would still result in lower snowfall forecasts for most of the region, somewhere around a foot.

It seems like we're headed for an 8-12" snowstorm around the NNJ/NYC areas,,,more on long island and much more in SNE. This would normally be AWESOME.....If we didn't have a blizzard warning out for us with 24-36" of snow forecasted for our areas. We might get 1/3 of that

 

EDIT....GFS looks more like 5-8", not 8-12"

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

It seems like we're headed for an 8-12" snowstorm around the NNJ/NYC areas,,,more on long island and much more in SNE. This would normally be AWESOME.....If we didn't have a blizzard warning out for us with 24-36" of snow forecasted for our areas. We might get 1/3 of that

Upton probably went too far by forecasting 24"+ given the model disagreement. I could see it for Suffolk County but elsewhere 18-24" and 12-18" west of NYC is safer for now. 

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
Posted

I think its getting to the point that even if the recent model runs are too far east, a slight westward correction would still result in lower snowfall forecasts for most of the region, somewhere around a foot.

You are totally guessing here. Nothing has changed but a few model runs waffling. Steady as she goes. If you think the real good mets just read QPF print outs on every run and change forecasts, well they wouldn't have jobs. Conceptually, everything is still in place. The GFS has been a piece of crap model lately. The Euro has been about as steady as could possibly be 3 runs in a row. There's no reason to change course at this point until we see what the King does.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Upton probably went too far by forecasting 24"+ given the model disagreement. I could see it for Suffolk County but elsewhere 18-24" and 12-18" west of NYC is safer for now. 

As I was posting yesterday, I had this lingering bad feeling about the whole thing lol.....Quite honestly like I said.....For 2 reasons.....1)We were on the SW edge of the really heavy stuff with so many more model runs to go......2)The Euro was the only one to ever really consistently show EPIC snowfall totals, rather than major/significant snows.....I think its quite obvious that the Euro will make a substantial shift east tonight....oh well....let's just all try to enjoy our significant snow event

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

You are totally guessing here. Nothing has changed but a few model runs waffling. Steady as she goes. If you think the real good mets just read QPF print outs on every run and change forecasts, well they wouldn't have jobs. Conceptually, everything is still in place. The GFS has been a piece of crap model lately. The Euro has been about as steady as could possibly be 3 runs in a row. There's no reason to change course at this point until we see what the King does.

I don't have any dog in this fight, but when you are just about 24 hours from the main event and you see all these trends, it has to get your attention. By the way, none of the RGEM ensemble members have, with the exception of maybe one member, a tremendous amount of QPF for KNYC.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Much more optimistic for your chances -- clipper not ahead of schedule, feature is developing in advance as leading wave, probably a sign that explosive cyclogenesis will occur as soon as upper level low reaches coast Monday afternoon. Would toss NAM and accept GFS may be just slightly off in timing and phase. RGEM is consistent with 18" and expect a really strong Euro.

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Jefflaw77

Jefflaw77

Posted
Posted

who here think the euro will take a miller B that it's trended west for 4 straight run 12 hours before event and move it over 100 miles east?!?!?!?!? Not me.... Cum'on guys

There is always a first.

 

The EURO was dead wrong 48-72 hours out for this past storm.. It was too wound up.. the storm ended up being much more progressive.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

TV Mets coming on for the 11:00 news have a big decision to make.

Without the benefit of the 00Z Euro do they continue to go full bore or

start to hedge and pull back, at least slightly?

 

I think they should at least inject some uncertainty into the forecast for the 18"+ 

amounts from the city west.

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

From Met Anthony Massiello via twitter:

"The double-low structure would occur, per upper structures, on tonight's GFS/NAM but they jump east to best lift/convection."

"the mid level jump etc. to forcing makes me think of qg height tendency stuff. GFS/NAM go right to it, unlike EC." (EC as in ECMWF)

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Much more optimistic for your chances -- clipper not ahead of schedule, feature is developing in advance as leading wave, probably a sign that explosive cyclogenesis will occur as soon as upper level low reaches coast Monday afternoon. Would toss NAM and accept GFS may be just slightly off in timing and phase. RGEM is consistent with 18" and expect a really strong Euro.

 

Love the good news.....But, why would basically all of the models suddenly trend east ? I know many people will say "they just all suck !!".....But thats not a real answer, obviously. If not for a true east trend, then for what reason?

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The GFS heads almost due east from hours 18-24 despite the trough negatively tilting. I find that hard to believe. I'm not denying that the trends so far haven't been disheartening, but these models sometimes go too far in dragging the storm east in response to fast development over the Gulf Stream. I also just don't see the Euro being so wrong and so close in when it's been very steady the last 3 runs.

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