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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

Posted
Posted

Haha well how do you think this would compare with that ? I have NEVER seen such obscene amounts (24-36") forecast for my area, not then or any other time. 

Considering I wasn't looking at models yet in 2001, I only had the TV and Radio to go by and they were still calling for an historic storm as the snow starting falling Sunday afternoon.

Also, 2000-01 came after 4 years that TOTALED 44.5" of snow. We got 35" that winter, but that storm would have put us over 50" and would have been a big deal.

 

If the Euro bails tonight, at least it was 24 hours before the real snow was set to move in.

It will be a bitter disappointment, but wouldn't compare personally to 3/5/01.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I think media & politicians should give the mets at Upton (& generally NWS) a break. Heads would have rolled if they had forecasted conservatively and it ended up historic. 

There would've still been time tomorrow to ramp amounts up if needed. Tomorrow during the day should be fairly low impact. I've never seen a forecast above 24" from the NWS in my life probably. There must have been huge confidence to release a prediction that high. If the Euro significantly cuts back tonight, Upton and Mt. Holly are going to have to backtrack big time. 10" or a foot is still high impact but not a historic blizzard by any means. 

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FreeRain

FreeRain

Posted
Posted

If the Euro holds and turns out correct it'll live in infamy as untouchable but it makes a huge shift then that's a epic fail. Given subsidence usually present to the west of strong bands if the gfs is right we might end up with very little making this storm a contender for biggest bust in our history.

Yes, it's either a big snow for NYC or a big bust for the Euro.

 

Couldn't ask for more drama for tonights run.

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lisnow66

lisnow66

Posted
Posted

Storm really isn't moving as fast as people are saying it is... Euro will hold serve IMO 24-30" amounts will be determined where the banding sets up

Wish some of the better METS would chime in. So many are saying clipper moving too fast. Doesn't appear it really is.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Yes, it's either a big snow for NYC or a big bust for the Euro.

 

Couldn't ask for more drama for tonights run.

All of the models still give NYC a "big snow", but 10-12" and 2 feet have much different levels of impact. One is a big headache for a day but manageable, the other shuts down towns for days and closes major interstates/airports/transit. 

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BL03

BL03

Posted
Posted

Having the EURO being so consistent in the last 3 runs and being the first to see this sat am is a big deal still.  This is a very unique set-up and not something I think I've ever really seen, it really does look like feb 78.  That being said the 00z GFS looked to be to bring things slightly west in the upper air (5h) but surface isn't really matching.  It may really be a case of the models not knowing how to handle this situation... and if the euro holds AGAIN then maybe that means the euro is the only model that is able to handle it and be consistent. 

 

I need sleep.... this is draining.  lol 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

No one knows what is going to happen yet...not for at least another 48 hours...but not always the best thing to throw out 24 - 36 inch widespread amounts before the onset of one of these events...simply because it is extremely rare.  The day before the Great Blizzard of '78...the NYC forecasters predicted "a foot or more"...while the Boston NWS went with "8 to 16 inches"...Boston obviously went rather low...as Logan got about 27 inches...much of Long Island saw similar totals...how much *really* fell in NYC will remain a mystery...despite the admission of some questionable totals from LGA, JFK, & CPK into the record books. 

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

We have to assume the pro mets putting out these snow maps and bolder forecasts are putting their brains to work a bit. I don't believe they are living and dying by the euro - we can all do that. Lets give upton the benefit of the doubt for the time being and see what the Euro shows once more. 

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yhbrooklyn

yhbrooklyn

Posted
Posted

No one knows what is going to happen yet...not for at least another 48 hours...but not always the best thing to throw out 24 - 36 inch widespread amounts before the onset of one of these events...simply because it is extremely rare.  The day before the Great Blizzard of '78...the NYC forecasters predicted "a foot or more"...while the Boston NWS went with "8 to 16 inches"...Boston obviously went rather low...as Logan got about 27 inches...much of Long Island saw similar totals...how much *really* fell in NYC will remain a mystery...despite the admission of some questionable totals from LGA, JFK, & CPK into the record books. 

I'm guessing that NWS was tired of criticism that they are always playing catch up on big ticket events. You will always see the maps ramp up from 6-10 to 10-14 and then while the event is underway, jump to 12-24, etc. They saw the Euro and the tons of support it had and decided to warn the public and jump at the high totals from the get go.

It's not a terrible strategy because even if you bust "low" at 20", no one would really criticize it.

But now the Euro's support has been creeping downwards...

 

Only an hour left of agony, but even if he Euro holds serve, I don't know what it means at this point.

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