Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Allsnow]

hr 21 steady snow to mmu.

Hr 22 steady snow back to del river

[steve5728]

Just listened to live interview with Bill Evans on 770 WABC.
He's at this point super bullish. Says 36" from city east

[Allsnow]

Hr 27 steady snow continues. Low 994

[pazzo83]

EE rule in effect.

[NJCoast]

EE rule in effect.

Enlighten a weenie lurker. What is this "EE" rule?

[rgwp96]

Nam is much further east, cuts totals significantly

i agree, the nam im looking at is awful so far. less precip for sure and east

[jm1220]

This nam run will put everyone at ease

 

 

Nam is much further east, cuts totals significantly

Please stop with posts like these. 

[SnoSki14]

This nam run will put everyone at ease

Nope

[IsentropicLift]

The NAM is a mess after the initial over running

[user13]

Nam is fine @ H5, just the evolution of the precip changed just noise

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Yea my bad, jumped the gun, trough appeared to dig better, and initial placement was good, and trough was less sharp, however it was very progressive

[wkd]

Whats with the surface low pressure jumping SE between hours 18 and 21?

[nyblizz44]

The NAM is a mess after the initial over running

define mess please is it under one QP F?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The NAM is a mess after the initial over running

 

It's pretty strange. The way it closes of the DE/NJ Coast. 

[Morris]

NAM cuts totals for everyone.

[DiehardFF]

I like the look at H5. Its closed off of the coast. If the 0z GFS trends worse, and if the EURO trends drier/east, then will start to worry.

Perhaps the 0z RGEM will go towards a EURO solution, to support.

[mikemost]

Does anyone know if the 0z NAM is accounting for the hurricane hunter recon data from this afternoon?

[WintersGrasp]

While it is the NAM, I don't think it can be completely ignored at this point, eh ? General trends have been east as well, obviously not the Euro though. Terrible run of the NAM outside of LI/SNE

[SleetStormNJ]

NAM evolution makes no sense based on the setup aloft.

[jm1220]

Whats with the surface low pressure jumping SE between hours 18 and 21?

I haven't seen the run, but it's probably convective feedback. It makes absolutely zero sense for the low to leap SE with an advancing and negatively tilting trough, so this is likely a NAM run we can toss. 

[pazzo83]

This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt...

[superjames1992]

Enlighten a weenie lurker. What is this "EE" rule?

When the NAM (formerly the ETA) and the Euro agree on a storm within 48 hours, you can "lock it up." Hence, the EE (ETA, ECMWF) Rule. Or storm the rule goes...

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

We're not gonna get 100% of the models to agree, there will be outliers so everyone should relax and take confidence that the best model out has shown 2 consecutive days unwavered, with srefs and ensemble agreement

[WeatherFox]

NAM cuts totals for everyone.

Hey, with this winter even a foot of snow will be a big deal.  Good luck to you all.  I'm in Florida and will miss it for sure.

 

[Zelocita Weather]

The jump from 18 to 21 is indeed very weird....

[SleetStormNJ]

While it is the NAM, I don't think it can be completely ignored at this point, eh ? General trends have been east as well, obviously not the Euro though. Terrible run of the NAM outside of LI/SNE

 

Unless the GFS and RGEM both show the same kind of quacky elongation of the precip shield and low depictions all over the Gulf Stream I'm going to keep riding the Euro.

 

The upper air charts scream a great setup on the NAM, but the surface looks atrocious.

[jm1220]

Looking at the NAM run now, it develops tons of convection offshore, which pulls the storm east. It's very likely bogus, and an error the NAM frequently suffers from. The 500mb low cuts off south of NYC, so there should be plenty of precip wrapping around. 

[WintersGrasp]

Wow.....Not for us, but parts of MA get close to 4 feet of snow, WOW

[jm1220]

The jump from 18 to 21 is indeed very weird....

It's because of convection it's trying to blow up, which isn't reality 95% of the time. I'd toss this run for sure. 

[USCG RS]

Looking at the NAM run now, it develops tons of convection offshore, which pulls the storm east. It's very likely bogus, and an error the NAM frequently suffers from. The 500mb low cuts off south of NYC, so there should be plenty of precip wrapping around.

Yes this is typical convective feedback issues for the NAM. It looks beautiful at h5 and again h3 with the jet streaks are just mouth watering. The convection feedback at the surface pulls it east and elongates it.