Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[PB GFI]

Yea, but the forecast is/was for 2 to 3ft.

It happens. The offices see what everyone here sees . There is not some secret model that no one sees . When the best skill score model spits out 2.5 at 12 to 1 for 4 straight runs you take notice

 

The forecast did not bust yet . And if it " busts "  its busting to 12 to 15 OMG

[killabud]

gefs not following gfs this close in is pretty rare

[jm1220]

A lot of people might have jumped the gun too soon. It wasn't only Upton forecasting this.

If the Euro shifts east towards the other guidance soon I'd say the 2 foot plus calls are in some pretty big trouble. 12" is still a very disruptive event, but not historic or unprecedented. That's very strong language to release more than 24 hours out from a storm. 

[MJO812]

GEFS are 1 at KNYC

12+ not bad at all.

 

Come on PB, I know you want to sound like the voice of reason but right now in your backyard in monmouth county the NWS has a forecast of 24-36". If this thing goes east and we get 10 or 12" it's a big deal, a serious forecast bust. You act like we've been sitting around here the last few days talking about a run of the mill scenario.

What's wrong with a foot of snow? People are really greedy. I would love to see a historic storm but if it doesn't happen, I will not be mad at all if we still get 12-18 inches.

[MJO812]

If the Euro shifts east towards the other guidance soon I'd say the 2 foot plus calls are in some pretty big trouble. 12" is still a very disruptive event, but not historic or unprecedented. That's very strong language to release more than 24 hours out from a storm. 

All of the stores this afternoon were packed. The media might have spoke too soon about a historic blizzard. We will see.

[lisnow66]

Pb u can obv see why everyone is down with what nws put out earlier. A historical storm got everyone in a frenzy. Now that that appears off the table u have to understand the disappointment

Is it officially off the table? I think the answer won't be known until things get going later tomorrow night. Still waiting to see if the EURO backs down and if so how much. I remember the feb 83 blizzard where early morning forecasts were cut to 6-12 inches only to see nearly 20 inches actually fall. Time will tell but NOTHING is off the table at this point.

[RUMG11]

It'll be more interesting if the Euro holds true. Then what? 

 

I still gotta think that the pro mets have a little more insight and are putting their brains to work, rather then going all out on the Euro. 

[PB GFI]

And for you Long Island maniacs I gave you KNYC - Every number I put there increases  by .25 to as much as .50 -  So add that up and pls tell me that would suck because I need a good laugh

[jm1220]

gefs not following gfs this close in is pretty rare

Usually when the GEFS are more amped than the op it's a red flag that the OP was too flat and progressive. The convection might be throwing the models off. Or it could be right and it pulls the low east for too long. Who knows...

[SnoSki14]

It happens. The offices see what everyone here sees . There is not some secret model that no one sees . When the best skill score model spits out 2.5 at 12 to 1 for 4 straight runs you take notice

The forecast did not bust yet . And if it " busts " its busting to 12 to 15 OMG

You do realize you're literally only a tick east away from much lower totals and a couple ticks means advisory snows. Since when is 12-15" a lock if models keep shifting east.

[USCG RS]

12+ not bad at all.

What's wrong with a foot of snow? People are really greedy. I would love to see a historic storm but if it doesn't happen, I will not be mad at all if we still get 12-18 inches.

Tony, you know as well as I do if this truly becomes a foot.. Nyc OEM, the Mayor , the Governor , Suffolk and Nassau OEM, and Upton are all going to have to answer.

[sferic]

What happens in a 45 minutes or so if the Euro holds serve or eeks even more west?

 

Does that mean game on with the original amounts or wait for the 12z runs?

[Sn0waddict]

What happens in a 45 minutes or so if the Euro holds serve or eeks even more west?

 

Does that mean game on with the original amounts or wait for the 12z runs?

Who knows. Don't think we've ever had a situation like that before. Which is why I doubt it happens, I think the Euro goes east a bit. Not jump off the bridge east though like a lot of you seem to be thinking.

[forkyfork]

for those who get models early it would be more helpful to describe the location of benchmark amounts. for ex: the euro shows the 1" line extending from atlantic city to trenton to scranton

[RUMG11]

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF REPRESENT THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST
TO CROSS INTO SWRN CANADA TUE MORNING. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z CMC ARE
FLATTER...WHILE THE 12Z UKMET IS ON THE STRONGER/DEEPER SIDE OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.


WEAKENING CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH 12Z/28
70% 12Z ECMWF / 30% GFS BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE THROUGH 12Z/28 AT WHICH
POINT THE 12Z ECMWF HOLDS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE GFS FOCUSES MORE TOWARD THE FRONT
END OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WEST. THE
ECMWF/NAM/CMC HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF IDEA COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS CYCLES...BUT THE GFS HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM 00Z/25.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SPLIT ON THIS IDEA...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.


WEAK CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE.


CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM / 12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION BUT AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

THROUGH 12Z/27...THE 00Z NAM...00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN POSITION AND STRENGTH REGARDING THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOWS BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY TUE MORNING.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS...INITIALIZED
12Z/25...SUPPORT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF COMBO.

BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER
THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z
NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO
DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
THEREFORE REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED. BOTH THE 12Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR EITHER
UNSUPPORTED IN POSITION OR STRENGTH.

[SnowGoose69]

What happens in a 45 minutes or so if the Euro holds serve or eeks even more west?

 

Does that mean game on with the original amounts or wait for the 12z runs?

 

If it goes west I may need to quit....I don't see any way it does that, my hunch is it drops the QPF for sure, it may or may not go east, I could see it more or less holding on track and cutting QPF more in the range to 18-24 for NYC.  My concern is the UKMET is still only a 60-80 mile shift from being a 2 foot storm for NYC and the UKMET is almost always too far east on these systems.

[FreeRain]

I don't know enough about these models internal algorithms to give you a good answer...

 

It's not really a question answered by understanding model internal algorithms.

 

It's a question best answered by somebody who has observed Euro model runs for a number of years.

 

Again, the Euro called for "widespread" 30" snows, 30 hours before this event, and it was consistent about it for multiple runs. If we wind up getting 10",  my question is, when was the last time the Euro busted that badly?

 

Anybody?

[Nibor]

If it goes west I may need to quit....I don't see any way it does that, my hunch is it drops the QPF for sure, it may or may not go east, I could see it more or less holding on track and cutting QPF more in the range to 18-24 for NYC. My concern is the UKMET is still only a 60-80 mile shift from being a 2 foot storm for NYC and the UKMET is almost always too far east on these systems.

And the eastern bias of some of the models is why the nws sided with a more wester solution no?

All of this panic may be for nothing.

[PB GFI]

You do realize you're literally only a tick east away from much lower totals and a couple ticks means advisory snows. Since when is 12-15" a lock if models keep shifting east.

 Another 5 year old

( The forecast did not bust  yet )_ This is what it busts to .

A really dry model tonite

GEFS  on  Long Island  1.5 at 12 to 1 is 18 with 50 mph 

[Thundersnow12]

The 0z hi res NMM still looks pretty good for NYC 

[pazzo83]

While y'all are sweating these fluctuations, the snow has arrived on our doorstep. PHL reporting mod snow at this hour.

[Juliancolton]

Speculation regarding the Euro is getting a little out of hand I think. Trying to forecast a forecast is futile.

[RUMG11]

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16-1422249311_thumb.jpg

[sferic]

From Craig Allen

 

The Latest- ‪#‎Blizzard‬ ‪#‎NYCwx‬ ‪#‎LIwx‬ ‪#‎CTwx‬ ‪#‎NJWx‬
There has been a very noticeable shift east on all main models (euro will run shortly). This lowers the snowfall totals and would take us out of the 'epic' and 'Biblical realm that was brought on by the 12z model run frenzy. B U T, THIS IS STILL GOING TO BE BIG AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. it is now a matter of whether it's 8-16 or 16-24". Both are still possible ...and my guess without SEEING the euro is that both ranges will be achieved from west to east across the region. I almost hate to say the lower end will be farther inland to the north & west because you will be farther from the storm but history says that parts of Morris, Passaic, Sussex and Orange always defy the rules and get more than forecast. However, if we rely on model trends and snow accumulations from these night runs, the 20"+ amounts have shifted to MTP to east of HFD to BOS and wallops COD/ACK/BID.
But you'd be hard pressed to tell me with accuracy Tuesday evening as this winds down whether there is 10 or 15 or 20" on the ground because of 30-50+mph gusts and considerable blowing and drifting.
So this will still smack us around pretty bad but it may not be an epic beatdown in our immediate region.
While waiting for the ECMWF run, let's try to keep it real.

[jm1220]

I don't think that's the point.  The point is that human nature being what it is, once you hear 30+" and see it on maps, then no matter how much one wants to be objective about it, there's disappointment if it doesn't come true.

 

An analogy:  If  someone surprises you on Friday with $1,000, you're happy because it is unexpected.  But if I tell you now that I'm going to give you $3,000 on Friday and then I only actually give you $1,000, if you feel just as happy about the $1,000 at that point you are probably a better person than just about everyone on earth.

I remember NBC4 showing the 27" amounts for Central Park on TV that the crazy RPS runs released just prior to the 2/8/13 storm and laughing out loud. Sure enough, 5 minutes later it was all over Twitter, Facebook and being discussed everywhere. Keep in mind too that we were all still on a hair trigger because of what happened during Sandy. The panic and rushes on stores were far too much for what took place around NYC, and the RPS was a complete outlier!! Some people in the media have zero sense of responsibility and just care about ratings. 

[USCG RS]

Another 5 year old

( The forecast did not bust yet )_ This is what it busts to .

A really dry model tonite

GEFS on Long Island 1.5 at 12 to 1 is 18 with 50 mph

While I respect your opinion brother, can we all please stop attacking each other. We do not know what is going to happen yet. IF and yes it is still IF, this forecast busts, them we can discuss why afterwards. Let's see what the Euro shows. This is an exceedingly dynamic set up and honestly we may not have a final solution from any model yet. There was a reason the forecasting offices up and down the NE corridor issued the strong wording they did. Could they be wrong? Yes. But they may still be correct. Unfortunately, it's torture, but it's wait and see.

[rochesterdave]

At this point, i'd defer to the NWS instead of models. They typically are great. I just think they could've held off on B warnings and stuck with watches. Hope I eat me hat. I dont want to hear deblasio blame the nws for shutting down Ny unnecessarily . Plus, Cuomo called in a warning, never a good sign, he was the jerk who said the Buffalo (south towns) LES blizzard want forecast- when it was. ugh. I really hope this works out for the integrity of all of the NWS. Even with 12" and a lot of wind, NYC will be impacted. Maybe not the 24-36 Upton has dropped- incredible amts . If they pull it out and NYC ends up with 24", they win big! if less than 12" they lose credibility.

[PB GFI]

What should have BOX Upton and MT HOLLY done ? Wait for another cycle of 2.5 inches ? You had the NAM spit out 2 at KNYC at 12z and 2.5 on Long Island  The SREFS were 1.75 at KNYC and 2.5 at KISP .

The RGEM and UKIE today were both 1.6

 

All the models by 2 pm ( but the GFS ) spit out 20 -30 across the area . You guys are yelling BUST ( Nothing happened yet )  .If the Euro captures this system tonite and retrogrades it like it has for the past 36 hours , what`s your call ?

 

Do you just leave 15 mill people in the dark . It was the right call . If it does not work , its because whatever was sampled is beyond anyone`s  control .

[PB GFI]

While I respect your opinion brother, can we all please stop attacking each other. We do not know what is going to happen yet. IF and yes it is still IF, this forecast busts, them we can discuss why afterwards. Let's see what the Euro shows. This is an exceedingly dynamic set up and honestly we may not have a final solution from any model yet. There was a reason the forecasting offices up and down the NE corridor issued the strong wording they did. Could they be wrong? Yes. But they may still be correct. Unfortunately, it's torture, but it's wait and see.

You are right my man. The forecast offices had no choice . It was the right call and " still may be " .

[SnoSki14]

 Another 5 year old

( The forecast did not bust  yet )_ This is what it busts to .

A really dry model tonite

GEFS  on  Long Island  1.5 at 12 to 1 is 18 with 50 mph 

The point is that we'll have to hope what we have now still holds. What if the models keep ticking east then what?