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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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Carl Lewis caught the fat kid this run...Euro is a blizzard for eastern SNE.

I don't have the background you Scott and Ryan have among others. There was something evident about this period Of time s few weeks ago that I still can't totally identify as the catalyst for me being so adamant it was coming now.

Today this upcoming system just stuck out as one that would become a monster ocean storm and perhaps the one in ten year deal for coastal sections. Too early to tell yet but I think this is the big dog.

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I feel like we've been slowly trending towards this solution for a few days. In this trending, it was going to look worse at the surface before we hit that threshold where BOOM H5 took off and we get a retrograding blizzard.

I'm still a tad skeptical with the long wavelengths, but the potential is there.

will it come back more?
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For folks who don't have access and are wondering about what we're all freaking out about, some quantifiable numbers.

.25" QPF from west of NYC up the Hudson River then over to MWN and continuing NW. 

.5" QPF from NYC to the east slope of the berks to CON to LEW and continuing NE

.75" from BDR to CEF to SENH to PWM and east

1" from HVN to TOL to extreme NE MA and east 

1.25" from BOS to PVD and east

1.5-2" for the cape. James Jackpot with 1.9" QPF all snow at high ratios.

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Its worth mentioning the shortwave responsible for the 00z Euro bomb just made landfall in British Columbia. This was likely the first run that the shortwave had proper sampling by the North American radiosonde network.

 

I say this because the run to run differences between the 12z and 00z here are well outside of the expected uncertainty provided by the 12z ECMWF EPS... the 00z deterministic run is more extreme than even the most extreme 12z EC ensemble member. 

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