Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 just to add to the medium/long range discussion..... From a weather standpoint...although not exciting....snowpack, clouds, sunny days, ice jams, fog, breezes, etc....are all in direct correlation to weather and are fair game for keeping stats and monitoring trends (either for hobby or for forecasting) From a hobbyist standpoint...a 2 inch snowpack in December does a lot more for me than a 2 inch glacier in the 1st week of Feb. Also, a snowfall does much more for me than a snowpack That being said, snowpack vs. no snowpack is relevant from a weather standpoint (example being...flooding, ground thawing, micro climate freezing rain possibilities, etc.) For most....I equate it to a trip to Vegas (if that's your thing for fun) .... Most of us would enjoy and be excited in the time leading up to the trip...most would then enjoy the time in vegas with all of it's activities....then for most, after a few days it's time to go home and dream about the next trip....while some just want to stay and play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I suppose if one of the waves this weekend or early next week bombs I could get on the western fringe in SE Ohio. Would be better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You know it's a pretty crappy weather pattern when there's a page and a half dedicated to if snow is good after it falls or not rofl. Personally I'll take any snow at any time, I live in a rural area so it just takes an inch to freshen the slightly brown old snow on the roadsides lol. I also love a nice snowpack here in Central MI, MBY is usually snow covered 80% of the time all winter thanks to the lakes providing clouds and slowing WAA from melting my snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 For all the promise this winter had and the shotgun start in November it sure has been craptacular so far. But again I am in the southern third of Illinois so it is probably more average for me than most of you guys. Let's raise a glass and hope for strong second half. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 just to add to the medium/long range discussion..... From a weather standpoint...although not exciting....snowpack, clouds, sunny days, ice jams, fog, breezes, etc....are all in direct correlation to weather and are fair game for keeping stats and monitoring trends (either for hobby or for forecasting) From a hobbyist standpoint...a 2 inch snowpack in December does a lot more for me than a 2 inch glacier in the 1st week of Feb. Also, a snowfall does much more for me than a snowpack That being said, snowpack vs. no snowpack is relevant from a weather standpoint (example being...flooding, ground thawing, micro climate freezing rain possibilities, etc.) For most....I equate it to a trip to Vegas (if that's your thing for fun) .... Most of us would enjoy and be excited in the time leading up to the trip...most would then enjoy the time in vegas with all of it's activities....then for most, after a few days it's time to go home and dream about the next trip....while some just want to stay and play I see what you're saying as far as how snowcover can be useful for climo purposes and predicting future weather (when determining how much snow has fallen, flood threats, surface temps, etc.), but weather by its strictest definition is considered a state of the atmosphere. Snow on the ground itself isn't considered a state of the atmosphere (light rain, light snow, 45 MPH winds, etc. are considered states of the atmosphere or "weather"). So that's why weather hobbyists wouldn't very interested in it beyond its aforementioned usefulness. Days and days of snowcover just sitting there without any weather events occurring does nothing for them. I just don't understand why someone would be amazed by this or consider this weird... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What if heavy rain causes a dam break? Heavy rain is a state of the atmosphere (weather), so that type of flood would be considered weather-related IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 lol @ the "what is weather" debate so deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 lol @ the "what is weather" debate so deep. next up, what is love http://youtu.be/xhrBDcQq2DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol... Well played Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I see what you're saying as far as how snowcover can be useful for climo purposes and predicting future weather (when determining how much snow has fallen, flood threats, surface temps, etc.), but weather by its strictest definition is considered a state of the atmosphere. Snow on the ground itself isn't considered a state of the atmosphere (light rain, light snow, 45 MPH winds, etc. are considered states of the atmosphere or "weather"). So that's why weather hobbyists wouldn't very interested in it beyond its aforementioned usefulness. Days and days of snowcover just sitting there without any weather events occurring does nothing for them. I just don't understand why someone would be amazed by this or consider this weird... amazed was a poor choice of wording...used once. Everything is all relative to the different strokes mantra. Outside of major storms, sometimes its the most inactive aspects of "weather" that create the biggest impact on the public. Snowcover for winter recreation....constant sunny, storm-less weather luring some people to the sw part of the country...gray, cloudy weather causing depression in some people. How can some people like a sunny every day climate like LA? Its as boring as can be. But its still weather. But im done with the what is weather thing, the dead horse has been beat enough Onto haddaway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The last legit southern stream threat was that New Years weekend storm. Right? And nothing in sight, even in fantasy land. Wow, that's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 horrible pattern for cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looking way into the future, I'm hoping we see a warm spring followed by a cool summer, like we did in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice 994mb clipper on the 12z Euro from hours 120-144. Tracks from se MN through OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice 994mb clipper on the 12z Euro from hours 120-144. Tracks from se MN through OH. yup, nice strong clipper....perfect track... ....garbage qpf I know, I know, amounts don't mean anything this far out , and ratios will save us. I'll stick to 2014-15 climo, which ensures an underperforming POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 yup, nice strong clipper....perfect track... ....garbage qpf I know, I know, amounts don't mean anything this far out , and ratios will save us. I'll stick to 2014-15 climo, which ensures an underperforming POS With a track right over Columbus it isn't really that favorable for you guys. A track like that is good for extreme southern Michigan and northern Indiana Ohio. I do agree the QPF is less than desired though. The Euro does however tend to be a bit light on the clipper QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 With a track right over Columbus it isn't really that favorable for you guys. A track like that is good for extreme southern Michigan and northern Indiana Ohio. I do agree the QPF is less than desired though. The Euro does however tend to be a bit light on the clipper QPF. only thing I know for certain is it won't look like that come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 maybe someone can start a thread...."super clipper"....or just use the existing failed one and change the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 horrible pattern for cutters Can't win. If it were a -PNA pattern, with no help from the Atlantic we'd turn wetter but torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If that huge ridge out West doesn't completely break down as it slides East. A pretty stout batch of warmth is going to slam into at least the Southern half of the sub-forum. This air mass will have built up for a week as it slides East. Soil temps under it will rise and it will come with a punch to wherever it makes it. If it's not going to snow. I want some 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If that huge ridge out West doesn't completely break down as it slides East. A pretty stout batch of warmth is going to slam into at least the Southern half of the sub-forum. This air mass will have built up for a week as it slides East. Soil temps under it will rise and it will come with a punch to wherever it makes it. If it's not going to snow. I want some 60s and 70s. what the hell? what website is that from? I want in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 what the hell? what website is that from? I want in It's a German model page. It's pretty easy to navigate but you can still translate it if you want. Not to in depth but very well laid out color wise. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html I originally found it here on the sea ice page. The creator of the page is from the Nordic countries. Likely how he was tied to the German model site. https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ I feel like it has an absolutely gorgeous and easy to decipher NH layout and color scheme. But I am probably bias since I this is all I look at for 6 months of the year. I absolutely love the global GFS graphics they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If that huge ridge out West doesn't completely break down as it slides East. A pretty stout batch of warmth is going to slam into at least the Southern half of the sub-forum. This air mass will have built up for a week as it slides East. Soil temps under it will rise and it will come with a punch to wherever it makes it. If it's not going to snow. I want some 60s and 70s. Hmm... Keep that crap away from Michigan and we are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hmm... Keep that crap away from Michigan and we are good. The trend has been to weaken the Eastern half of ridges recently as we get closer. So that bodes well for you. And you can easily be in the 20s and 30s with us in the 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The trend has been to weaken the Eastern half of ridges recently as we get closer. So that bodes well for you. And you can easily be in the 20s and 30s with us in the 60s and 70s. I have a planned trip to the upper peninsula, 38 inches of snowpack there... But anything above freezing will convert the powder to crust. If only I had a camera on me last year when I went over the handlebars after hitting a crust layer on snowpack... good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The trend has been to weaken the Eastern half of ridges recently as we get closer. So that bodes well for you. And you can easily be in the 20s and 30s with us in the 60s and 70s. Nothing better then a good thermal gradient to get a nice snow in these parts while you get Spring. Then when it crashes you go from 67 to zero in a matter of hours with nary a flake. Happens every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better then a good thermal gradient to get a nice snow in these parts while you get Spring. Then when it crashes you go from 67 to zero in a matter of hours with nary a flake. Happens every winter. Every time. I have a planned trip to the upper peninsula, 38 inches of snowpack there... But anything above freezing will convert the powder to crust. If only I had a camera on me last year when I went over the handlebars after hitting a crust layer on snowpack... good stuff. That is funny. We have something in common. Same thing happens to me on my bike when the gear sproket freezes up in lock with the rear hub essentially becoming an instant brake. Crust might as well be concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All the weather models have been so bad past 96hrs I can't believe what any of them are saying, this next week must just be incredibly hard to predict by the models or they just all suck, idk which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 500mb shortwave with the Sunday-Monday clipper looks really nice. Can't help but think it has 6"+ potential somewhere despite modest QPF on the models. The GFS and Euro ensembles look interesting for an overrunning snow/ice event in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to start February, but I'm sure it'll be suppressed along the Gulf Coast when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can't win. If it were a -PNA pattern, with no help from the Atlantic we'd turn wetter but torch. Yep. However, I have to believe that Mother Nature has something BIG in the works for us eventually in exchange for this crap (the only thing that will get me through the next couple of months)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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