IWXwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't show that map to PatrickSumner. He'll be weenieing out. It will be interesting to see many runs this shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Multiple choice time. The odds on this or something like it verifying are: a) 0% b )1% c) 2% d) 5% e) Other Going to have some fun with this and say e) Other ... NAO is Positive ... PNA is negative to neutral ... if those remain as forecasted ... a Great Lakes track would not be surprising. AO tanking is the '???' player but the AO tanking forecasts have struggled significantly this winter so it will remain the ???. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Would really have the threads burning up if this would verify. Yes, 24" of snow in northwest Ohio!!!!, with snow on the Front Range too. I will contact my family members immediately and call for 24" in northwest Ohio. Oh wait. I will not call for that. Now, back on topic of reality, looking at some of the ECMWF/GFS runs recently, Feb. 3rd is almost about a lock to be 10 to 30 degrees F below normal for the GL/OV. The ECMWF even has 850mb temps of 20C below average, that is equal to 36F below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Chinook. I agree just a clown map. Temp for me around the 3rd shows high of 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Indices show a quick drop in the NAO/AO indexes then recovery. Might be a sign of a cyclone? for Angry...you've been uncharacteristically pessimistic-light with this one. We may have to dub this the Angry Storm if it stays in the models the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gfs holding steady as a rock with a nice juicy clipper Thursday. Lets see how the models mangle this one up as we get closer lol. Could work for or against us, im just sure it will be mangled. Gfs has been way too consistent for something not to change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like the 00z GGEM is going to cook up another big storm for early Feb at hour 144. edit: yup. huge hit everywhere by 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GHD v2? Absolute monster of a storm there, the totals are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GHD v2? I don't think Hoosier wants to go through another GHD storm, at least not how it ended up for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GHD v2? Absolute monster of a storm there, the totals are insane. The track is reminiscent. Wonder who would melt down first...me, Tim, or Kokomowx. Edit: looks like a band of like 2.5" qpf as snow...what a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If there is one thing the GEM is at least consistent, probably incorrect but at least consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think Hoosier wants to go through another GHD storm, at least not how it ended up for LAF. I'd move heaven and earth to road trip north. No way I'd go through a repeat here if I can help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For anyone who wants to save it...note this is a 10:1 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I've been watching this period for a few days now and even told Joe yesterday if things played out perfectly something big could happen. I believe the GEM was the first one to show GHD as far north as it actually verified way back when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 One thing to note, with this system out east over the next few days it will force a pattern change with it being as strong as it is forecast, whether or not it is a positive for the region remains to be seen. Anything to change things up though is a positive at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Can't help but laugh at the comparison and the fact that it would be on the anniversary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 dead sexy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z Euro probably won't get it done. That closed/cutoff low is poking around by Baja at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 poor quality run though. time lagging, confused sampling between 120-168. Something is not clicking on that. doesn't look good for feb, though EPO reversal, bleh. Figures. The Euro delivers a respectable clipper on Groundhogs Day. All that southern energy is left sitting over the peninsula where Taco Bell gets their Baja chalupa ingredients from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So the Euro cuts off and lags the energy back in the Southwest, gee we haven't seen that before a billion times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So the Euro cuts off and lags the energy back in the Southwest, gee we haven't seen that before a billion times. Yeah, I wouldn't get hung up on how it handles a cutoff low a week in advance. It is interesting to note how important that energy is for developing sustained cold though. Without that energy phasing with the northern stream, the pattern is modeled to be much more progressive and warmer for the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, I wouldn't get hung up on how it handles a cutoff low a week in advance. It is interesting to note how important that energy is for developing sustained cold though. Without that energy phasing with the northern stream, the pattern is modeled to be much more progressive and warmer for the Great Lakes. Yeah, I am not hung up, my post was tongue in cheek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I really don't want to play eject the cutoff but we may have to. Sigh. Models have been hinting at next weekend for a while now as Thundersnow said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, I am not hung up, my post was tongue in cheek. I know. I am still exhausted from tracking the cutoff low disaster from a month ago. I am ignoring this until a week passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Canadian has (intentionally) poor resolution at low latitudes. It is probably the worst model in the world to use for forecasting lows that cutoff over the Baja peninsula. Every model, even the JMA, hangs the energy back. The only model I can think of that might be worse at handling cutoff lows is the post-192 hour truncated GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Canadian has (intentionally) poor resolution at low latitudes. It is probably the worst model in the world to use for forecasting lows that cutoff over the Baja peninsula. Every model, even the JMA, hangs the energy back. The only model I can think of that might be worse at handling cutoff lows is the post-192 hour truncated GFS. The Canadian looks a lot different than the ECMWF/GFS in the Pacific as well. That seems rather important if you're looking at the potential for sustained cold weather as I believe you were alluding to a few posts back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know. I am still exhausted from tracking the cutoff low disaster from a month ago. I am ignoring this until a week passes. At this point in time verification sits at 1.99%..... One eye open, the other playing back the bulk of the winter tracking misfortunes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At this point in time verification sits at 0.001%..... One eye open, the other playing back the bulk of the winter tracking misfortunes of the season. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 on the plus side, after a brief and likely overdone cold shot, the euro looks mild into the extended come on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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