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NYCSNOWMAN2020

Clipper potential Tue Jan 6

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The Euro is by far the most north now of all the models, the NAM is too but thats to be expected at the end of its range, its usually N and W... the GFS and its ensembles came south...my thinking was this was a PIT-TTN or ACY type tracker which is nearly perfect for most of this area, probably want slightly south of that.  the NavGEM of all models tries to really redevelop it at the coast.

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The Euro is by far the most north now of all the models, the NAM is too but thats to be expected at the end of its range, its usually N and W... the GFS and its ensembles came south...my thinking was this was a PIT-TTN or ACY type tracker which is nearly perfect for most of this area, probably want slightly south of that.  the NavGEM of all models tries to really redevelop it at the coast.

Euro try's to transfer off NJ coast throwing moisture back would appear as well but weaker.

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This is really looking great for NYC and LI with a 3-5 inch fluff snow potential in all seriousness.  LI looks to be in the jackpot for this event. The 1/6-1/11 period looks way below freezing all days, so this snow will last for 5-7 days. 1/11-1/20 gets back to mid 30's at best for any so called moderation. Maybe ice box and KU blizzard 1/25-1/31, with big -EPO, +PNA rebuilding, and MJO going to phase 7/8.  What do you think ?  Wonder if Feb 2015 will be upper echelon epic and worth waiting for.  Think so.... I think we could get to last year's snow with major catchup 1/25-3/10 if we get into a 4-6 week KU pattern, which is possible after 1/20 or 1/25.  It would be good if clipper goes crazy and re-develops rapidly off the SNJ coastline and give LI and SNE a 6-10 inch surprise. 5-10% chance at that, but non- zero.

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excellent - also the 6Z GFS which tends to handle these clipper storms well in the northern stream right now has about 0.18 liquid which with 850's running at least - 10 that translates into 20:1 snow ratio potential with 100% sticking to the very cold surface - so 2 -4 inches of powdery snow seems like a good forecast to me with the wildcard being an increase in amounts if the storm slows down and interacts with the very warm ocean and starts bombing out - also winds will be increasing blowing the snow around....

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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excellent - also the 6Z GFS which tends to handle these clipper storms well in the northern stream right now has about 0.18 liquid which with 850's running at least - 10 that translates into 20:1 snow ratio potential with 100% sticking to the very cold surface - so 2 -4 inches of powdery snow seems like a good forecast to me with the wildcard being an increase in amounts if the storm slows down and interacts with the very warm ocean and starts bombing out - also winds will be increasing blowing the snow around....

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

FWIW, Bufkit shows 2.3"-2.7" for LGA, so 2"-4" with the current run is probably not a bad idea. If the snowfall materializes, it will be a nice way to begin the recovery from a dreadful December.

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Gfs much drier this run <.10"

The models are going to have these differences leading up to the event. All we known so far is that it's going to snow but the question is how much? We always have to worry about the mountains eating up the precip before it gets to the coast.I would be happy with a dusting lol

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I don't regret starting this thread ; yes it may only be dusting but heck its winter it is something to track I rather track any bit of snow ..rather than watch rain fall. But ya never know clippers can surprise.

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I don't regret starting this thread ; yes it may only be dusting but heck its winter it is something to track I rather track any bit of snow ..rather than watch rain fall. But ya never know clippers can surprise.

It was only one run..still time to improve (or get worse), but 3-5" is a bit bullish

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.2 @ 700 -15 @ 850 -12 . Maybe some muster 12 to 15 to 1.

I can see 3 NW and then E LI based on that euro look.

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1-3 will be nice

Typical of Alberta Clippers, fast movers and limited moisture. Good luck, Anthony!

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There needs to be more of a surface reflection and stronger energy aloft which goes underneath us for there to be a shot at more than an inch here or there. Right now it seems like the kind of clipper that gets eaten up by the mountains and can't begin to redevelop until it's gone. It'll be nice in terms of seeing snow in the air and maybe a nice coating but that's about it. 

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There needs to be more of a surface reflection and stronger energy aloft which goes underneath us for there to be a shot at more than an inch here or there. Right now it seems like the kind of clipper that gets eaten up by the mountains and can't begin to redevelop until it's gone. It'll be nice in terms of seeing snow in the air and maybe a nice coating but that's about it. 

1-3" from a clipper almost always means closer to 1 than 3 

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1-3" from a clipper almost always means closer to 1 than 3 

 

 

A coating to 2 inches is usually the best forecast for clippers around here, unless there is redevelopment. This one looks as if it will be in that coating to 2 category.

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What a difference a year makes. Last year this system would be considered like nothing; there wouldn't even be a discussion about it and now it feels like an all or nothing type deal that we are praying happens.

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