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NYCSNOWMAN2020

Clipper potential Tue Jan 6

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The Canadian doesn't appear to have much more than flurries...another model I'm not enamored with outside 24...but, when you get right down to it...how far off can one be with a simple clipper inside 72?

Can't seem to buy a snowflake this winter.

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It was a tremendous S/W and had a good connection with southern moisture for overrunning, but it took away just as easily as it gave. In PA at the time, it went from heavy snow to overcast in a few minutes and gave us less than half of what we were expected to have.

Yeah that was unfortunate for central PA getting sucker holed by the developing coastal.

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The Canadian doesn't appear to have much more than flurries...another model I'm not enamored with outside 24...but, when you get right down to it...how far off can one be with a simple clipper inside 72?

 

if i had a dime for every clipper where 1-2" were predicted, and only a dusting occurred, i'd have a lot of dimes.

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Guest Pamela

if i had a dime for every clipper where 1-2" were predicted, and only a dusting occurred, i'd have a lot of dimes.

 

"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore."

___Yogi Berra

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Yeah that was unfortunate for central PA getting sucker holed by the developing coastal.

The initial mid level lows trended north at the last minute and developed a massive dry slot that didn't fill in until the coastal really got going. That's another feature of clippers-they often trend north at the end. I remember the Jan 2004 clipper was supposed to nail Philly for a while but they ended up getting next to nothing (edit-maybe 1-2").

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 Euro has another clipper for Friday

Can't seem to buy a snowflake this winter.

Uh? It's going to snow on Tuesday.

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Euro has another clipper for Friday

Uh? It's going to snow on Tuesday.

I'm in denial. Used to do this before a big test. You know . . . psych myself out.

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Uh? It's going to snow on Tuesday.

We'll see. I'll believe it when I see the radar that day. C-1" does look like the best bet right now.

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Let's not get our hopes up to high.  The current PoP for the Tuesday clipper is 50%.  As the adage goes sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you.  Who and where will be in the bulls eye for this minor event is yet to be seen.  Anyway, we can hope for the best 1-2" for some of the New York Tri-State area.

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We'll see. I'll believe it when I see the radar that day. C-1" does look like the best bet right now.

That's if it gets eaten up but with the really cold temps, I can see 1-3 inches.

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The initial mid level lows trended north at the last minute and developed a massive dry slot that didn't fill in until the coastal really got going. That's another feature of clippers-they often trend north at the end. I remember the Jan 2004 clipper was supposed to nail Philly for a while but they ended up getting next to nothing (edit-maybe 1-2").

Yup, philly had 1.8" but their ratios also sucked for that event like 12:1 where as just 25, 30 miles north ratios were 20 - 25:1.

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one of the many classic Yogiisms

What about the hot and humid August day that  Mayor Wagner and his wife were seated in the box seats and Yogi came over.   The Mayor's wife remarked "Yogi,  'you look so cool despite the temperature' !   To which Yogi replied, 'you don't look so hot yourself'!

 

Down to business.   Latest SREF Plume says 2" on Tues.

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Well, for Tuesday's event, the NWS doesn't even mention an amount for snow accumulation -- that's how little they expect from this clipper for my area. Oh well. There's always next season.

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Well, for Tuesday's event, the NWS doesn't even mention an amount for snow accumulation -- that's how little they expect from this clipper for my area. Oh well. There's always next season.

Who was expecting a lot from this clipper? A general coating to an inch should be expected. It will be nice seeing snow fall.

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Who was expecting a lot from this clipper? A general coating to an inch should be expected. It will be nice seeing snow fall.

Not expecting a lot, but the NWS doesn't even see this as an event. It seems like over-glorified snow showers for our area. We'll be lucky to get an inch. I guess seeing flakes would be nice. Haven't really seen those in a while.

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Guest Pamela

Some of the 12z guidance has shifted south (GFS, UKMET)...heaviest  (if you can call it that) precip over central & south Jersey and the coastal waters...tough year for snow, so far. NAM seemed to place the "heaviest" axis over the metro area...but its wild run to run shifts the last few winters make it very difficult to base a forecast on. 

If I had my druthers, they would go back to running the ETA as the leading North American mesoscale model. 

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12z Euro is 1-2 for the area

Pretty much what most of us have been speculating the past few days.   The way I look at it, is some snow is better than no snow :).  

 

Here is the NWS take as of today:

...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON

TUE. THE AIRMASS IS PLENTY COLD FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS IS A

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH NO UPSTREAM BLOCK...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT WILL DEVELOP. MORE

IMPORTANTLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE COLDEST AIR

OF THE WINTER SEASON...AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR TUE AND WED

DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS FOR THU...

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Well, for Tuesday's event, the NWS doesn't even mention an amount for snow accumulation -- that's how little they expect from this clipper for my area. Oh well. There's always next season.

Good luck- you never know, maybe you will get lucky.   And if not this week, there is still time.

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Good luck- you never know, maybe you will get lucky.   And if not this week, there is still time.

And may the odds be ever in your favor . . .

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Pretty much what most of us have been speculating the past few days.   The way I look at it, is some snow is better than no snow :).  

 

Here is the NWS take as of today:

...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON

TUE. THE AIRMASS IS PLENTY COLD FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS IS A

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH NO UPSTREAM BLOCK...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT WILL DEVELOP. MORE

IMPORTANTLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE COLDEST AIR

OF THE WINTER SEASON...AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR TUE AND WED

DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS FOR THU...

 

their actual forecast calls for "little or no accumulation."

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I think 1-3" is a good call for the area on Tuesday. Leaves open the possibility that some areas might do a little better than 2".

coating to an inch is much more likely at this piont

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Forecast is still only 50% chance of snow. I'm assuming that'll be updated to likely this afternoon as model consensus would indicate we at least see something accumulate

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That's what I said!

They won't typically put accumulations into the forecast until two periods before. They mention in the FD, which points to signs of 1-2". Signs point to that but no need to pinpoint amounts until it's more immanent.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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their actual forecast calls for "little or no accumulation."

Still a couple of days out so they alert us in the AFD and hold off with any menton of accumulaton in the the forecast until their confidence and the PoP increases..

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Some of the 12z guidance has shifted south (GFS, UKMET)...heaviest  (if you can call it that) precip over central & south Jersey and the coastal waters...tough year for snow, so far. NAM seemed to place the "heaviest" axis over the metro area...but its wild run to run shifts the last few winters make it very difficult to base a forecast on. 

If I had my druthers, they would go back to running the ETA as the leading North American mesoscale model. 

 

I've liked the track over C-SNJ for a few days now, the pattern really supported something in that area...I think we may see a bump back north, its fairly common with clippers to see models overadjust south sometimes around this range and they end up tracking a bit north of that.

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