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NYCSNOWMAN2020

Clipper potential Tue Jan 6

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Eh, I would like 1-2'' especially with those temperatures. 

Temperatures in the mid twenties to start.

Perhaps up to 3" on E. LI.

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Models overkill potent clippers over the Apps and Poconos beyond 72 hours...this has always been my experience...no doubt there does tend to be some shadow effect but its often confined to WRN parts of the area...when these clippers take the optimal track for this area, areas from about Essex and Union county east often seem to end up better in the end than we think in the 3-4 day range...the Atlantic moisture likely has something to do with it but I also think models expand the shadow effect too far east.

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I'd be happy with an inch here but expect less, probably a coating. These weak clippers that get destroyed by the mountains are usually disappointing. Eastern New England will probably do better because of longitude. Then we have a nearly bare ground Arctic shot right after, and then a return to a roaring +NAO and Pacific jet-Texas is looking better and better. Feb will have to make a huge recovery for a decent winter here given how the long range looks on the Euro and GFS.

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Guest Pamela

Models overkill potent clippers over the Apps and Poconos beyond 72 hours...this has always been my experience...no doubt there does tend to be some shadow effect but its often confined to WRN parts of the area...when these clippers take the optimal track for this area, areas from about Essex and Union county east often seem to end up better in the end than we think in the 3-4 day range...the Atlantic moisture likely has something to do with it but I also think models expand the shadow effect too far east.

 

I devoted a segment of a short paper I penned some time ago to the points you are addressing here...I remember finishing up with the conclusion  "the Alberta Clipper is frequently a very reliable snowmaker for the Long Island and southern New England areas during the dead of winter."

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Guest Pamela

Though I'm not terribly fond of the NAM beyond say 12 hours or so...it is printing out a bit of snow Tuesday with the clipper...

post-747-0-29844500-1420342266_thumb.gif

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Though I'm not terribly fond of the NAM beyond say 12 hours or so...it is printing out a bit of snow Tuesday with the clipper...

My Penn State prof's taught me to beware of the model of the day too.  Though, it is a clipper and they can drop and inch or two, sometimes..

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GFS is 1-2" for most of the area. Parallel GFS a maybe 1". NAM 2-3". I'd go with a coating to 2 inches. I saw someone mention that earlier, and I agree.....unless the clipper shows strong signs of redevelopment offshore in a favored area, these usually get ripped to shreds and leave us with light snow for 5 hours or so. The models tend to pick up on the weakening of the snow area as we get closer to the event. They're cutting back every couple runs.

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Safe bet is a coating most areas, hope for 1", jump for joy if it's 2". Sometimes clippers are killed off too quickly by models, but often in these strong NW flow regimes with no time for amplification the clippers are good for only a coating east of the mountains, maybe 1 or 2". Jan 2003 and even last year had these weak sauce clippers.

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Guest Pamela

January 2004 did have some very potent clippers, IIRC...one of the best all around winter months this area has seen in decades...though falling short of the incomparable January from 2011. 

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January 2004 did have some very potent clippers, IIRC...one of the best all around winter months this area has seen in decades...though falling short of the incomparable January from 2011.

2004 was a different animal. The mid Jan clipper with 7" of snow and 7 degree temps was one of my favorites.

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January 2004 did have some very potent clippers, IIRC...one of the best all around winter months this area has seen in decades...though falling short of the incomparable January from 2011. 

 

 I lived in Syracuse in January 2004. It may as well have been Siberia with the insane amount of snow and brutally cold temperatures that month. 

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Guest Pamela

2004 was a different animal. The mid Jan clipper with 7" of snow and 7 degree temps was one of my favorites.

 

January 2003...the one you cite in the original post...was notable for an abundance of light snows...2/10ths of an inch here...3/10ths of an inch there...I measured 7.0 inches that month...with the largest event being 1.5 inches on the 5th...and another 1.5 inches on the 26th - 27th. 

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Jan 2005, the mega clipper 15" - 20".

It redeveloped offshore so it's a different animal, there have been many of those but in terms of a clipper without redevelopment, you rarely see then product more than 2-4 inches once they cross the Appalachians.

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Guest Pamela

It redeveloped offshore so it's a different animal, there have been many of those but in terms of a clipper without redevelopment, you rarely see then product more than 2-4 inches once they cross the Appalachians.

 

Image and write-up per the kind permission of of board member NorthShoreWx...

 

http://northshorewx.com/blizzard20050123.asp

post-747-0-33292000-1420347617_thumb.gif

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Jan 2005, the mega clipper 15" - 20".

It was a tremendous S/W and had a good connection with southern moisture for overrunning, but it took away just as easily as it gave. In PA at the time, it went from heavy snow to overcast in a few minutes and gave us less than half of what we were expected to have.

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At home Jan 2005 was a huge event, about a foot and a half I think and lots of wind-our flagpole came down and my parents showed me 3 foot snow drifts on our street.

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Here is the UKMET...as a whole most models now agree on the track being fairly good for this area, the NAM was north but everything else is to the south for the most part

 

ukmetPR00.11.gif?t=1420347788

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December 29th 1993 had a decent clipper that put down 4"...That winter had four clippers with anywhere from 1-5" across the area...as of now I'd take any one of those storms Tuesday...

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Guest Pamela

This clipper looks like it's dehydrated

 

The Canadian doesn't appear to have much more than flurries...another model I'm not enamored with outside 24...but, when you get right down to it...how far off can one be with a simple clipper inside 72?

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