Model discussion thread

[dryslot]

Now we play the game of...it's been trending a little colder, so once it starts it'll keep trending colder and suppressed? Or, is this that mid-range shift where it does something for a couple days, then at day 3, it reverses and goes back the other way?

Like ORH said, going to go crazy trying to over analyze it. We just need some weather to watch.

 

We know what happens at times with confluence to our north, It usually makes folks a lot happier to the south, But right now, Its just a guessing game but is something at least to follow until we get closer in, The cold air mass is a huge plus at any rate right now, I went past Lake Auburn this am and there is no ice to be had at all.............lol

[J Paul Gordon]

How realistic is the probability the formation of a secondary low off Delmarva that would keep most of SNE frozen? And what is that probability given the data we have now?

[Zeus]

How realistic is the probability the formation of a secondary low off Delmarva that would keep most of SNE frozen? And what is that probability given the data we have now?

 

That would depend largely on what factors you weight more heavily when assessing a "probability," for which there is no exact formula.

 

We have yet to see strong support for scenarios that both bring SNE decent precip AND keep it frozen. Though that's not out of the realm of possibilities I think that a more robust SWFE ft. inevitable changeover or a screeching miss to our south have been the more common depictions in recent guidance.

 

This is one of those situations in which proverbial "threading the needle" would be necessary, and while the scenario you're positing is between the goalposts, I lean more toward the median than the mean as far as outcomes are concerned at this timeframe.

 

Simply put, from the guidance I've seen, not too bloody likely.

[J Paul Gordon]

That would depend largely on what factors you weight more heavily when assessing a "probability," for which there is no exact formula.

 

We have yet to see strong support for scenarios that both bring SNE decent precip AND keep it frozen. Though that's not out of the realm of possibilities I think that a more robust SWFE ft. inevitable changeover or a screeching miss to our south have been the more common depictions in recent guidance.

 

This is one of those situations in which proverbial "threading the needle" would be necessary, and while the scenario you're positing is between the goalposts, I lean more toward the median than the mean as far as outcomes are concerned at this timeframe.

 

Simply put, from the guidance I've seen, not too bloody likely.

So I thought. 

[weathafella]

So I thought.

It's a week out....and all solutions have equal weight given the variance in guidance. Euro is nearly a whiff out to sea.

[CT Valley Snowman]

I would say frozen for the entire duration of the storm probably 30/70 against for your location. Having a period of frozen precipitation probably 70/30 for but man that is a loaded question at this long of a time frame with so many variables at play. in reality each individual scenario would have to be considered a long shot at this point because of so many variables

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is partly sunny north of pike with flurries sourh. That's the more likely outcome with the setup. Let hope the north trend commences

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is basically a whiff. So what we have established is anything from a whiff to a cutter us possible at this point.

[weathafella]

Euro is partly sunny north of pike with flurries sourh. That's the more likely outcome with the setup. Let hope the north trend commences

Why is this more likely?

[powderfreak]

Euro is basically a whiff. So what we have established is anything from a whiff to a cutter is possible at this point.

 

Pretty much. 

[ORH_wxman]

Why is this more likely?

 

It isn't really. He just doesn't want a cutter, so he says it is less likely.

 

 

I'd say it's pretty much a coin flip right now on a more west system vs a whiff...and there's various probabilities of scenarios in between those two of occuring.

[dryslot]

Not that it matters this far out, But it was light snows for SNE/NNE on the 12z Euro on the 4th

[powderfreak]

Euro is partly sunny north of pike with flurries sourh. That's the more likely outcome with the setup. Let hope the north trend commences

 

Not sure there is any "likely" outcome with this...you sound like you are merely pulling stuff out of your backside.

 

I think SWFE seems most likely as a blend of the available model guidance.  You said the EURO was full of it when it was showing a cutter, but now its suppressed its the most likely outcome?  That's like wishcasting 101, at least try and disguise it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why is this more likely?

The northern branch is the heavy. The SE ridge may help us, but don't hang a weenie on that

[danstorm]

...you sound like you are merely pulling stuff out of your backside.

 

 

Shocking!

[dryslot]

12z Euro is keying more on a northern stream wave around the 7th like it did on the 0z run with more of a clipper/redeveloper

 

  963mb over DE Maine

[CoastalWx]

How did the GEFS look in the longer range, Will?

[ORH_wxman]

How did the GEFS look in the longer range, Will?

 

 

Pretty similar to what it has been...EPO ridge relaxes a bit but is still there...and PNA trends more positive near the end...verbatim it looks really good by 384h, lol. Canada stays plenty cold and most of the northern tier as well.

 

There's a brief period where it looks like we could fight some SE ridge as the PNA goes negative around 1/10-12 before it builds positive...that could potentially be a window for either messy storminess or a brief warmup that would get all the wrist-slitters worked up in hyperbolic rhetoric.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't have a problem with this Euro run at all...  

 

"... Without an assist by phasing, this system will be damping out as it comes ... possibly disappearing altogether as a correction ... ..."

 

I wrote that, then this Euro shakes the statement's hand.   

 

If this system turns into an utter non-event ... it goes back over week of warning that it might.  The "correction vector" has been and remains pointed toward less construction in these highly compressed, super fast flow regimes.

 

I won't go on record as saying the Euro run is correct, just yet, but I can see lots of valid logic here/there that supports sheared damping scenario.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow that would be a dramatic and [probably] damaging NW wind event if that extended Euro took place.  Very dramatic indeed.. 

 

As is ... I don't think it is likely that disturbance, which is pretty well identifiable in the other guidance (though in all they vary on amplitude) would get under our latitude.  The heights in the SE are just too "uberous"; that thing would come down and skip right off it like a rock across a pond. 

 

The key there is the "As is ..." : the surrounding features and generalized synopsis is not likely to be exactly like the Euro has it, it goes without saying.  But since the SE ridge is strongly anchored by the persistent western ridge being too far west ... until that changes, off all inhibitors that particular detriment does presently have the highest probability of being there when the time comes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd take a whiff over a cutter.

Fine by me.

[CoastalWx]

Thanks, Will. The end of the run is what I cared most about. Sounds good.

[SnowGoose69]

My guess is it'll be between the GFS and euro, the GFS is better with northern stream energy but it also tends to want to phase every damn thing when you have something coming out of the southern stream and a northern piece is nearby.

[J Paul Gordon]

Is the GFS Para going to be the replacement for the GFS? 

[dryslot]

Yes, Whether it be good or bad

[Damage In Tolland]

Well if Tip's forecast is correct and iron clad that this thing is sheared, suppressed and a whiff..there are going to be some basket cases on the board. Some of us will enjoy the cold , but those that don't like cold and dry will be in for a ln haul. Thankfully, I believe we'll see a solid compromise and gets  nice event for at least CNE and SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

My guess is it'll be between the GFS and euro, the GFS is better with northern stream energy but it also tends to want to phase every damn thing when you have something coming out of the southern stream and a northern piece is nearby.

 

At the end of the race something in between usually does cross that finish-line - tru dhat

[Typhoon Tip]

Well if Tip's forecast is correct and iron clad that this thing is sheared, suppressed and a whiff..there are going to be some basket cases on the board. Some of us will enjoy the cold , but those that don't like cold and dry will be in for a ln haul. Thankfully, I believe we'll see a solid compromise and gets  nice event for at least CNE and SNE

 

You've got to be doing this on purpose, because it is impossible to be that stupid and still know how to formulate a sentence/language...

 

"I won't go on record as saying the Euro run is correct..."   does not equate to forecast 

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't have a problem with this Euro run at all...  

 

"... Without an assist by phasing, this system will be damping out as it comes ... possibly disappearing altogether as a correction ... ..."

 

I wrote that, then this Euro shakes the statement's hand.   

 

If this system turns into an utter non-event ... it goes back over week of warning that it might.  The "correction vector" has been and remains pointed toward less construction in these highly compressed, super fast flow regimes.

 

I won't go on record as saying the Euro run is correct, just yet, but I can see lots of valid logic here/there that supports sheared damping scenario.  

If that's not what you lean twds..then say I could see this going either way.

[ORH_wxman]

If that's not what you lean twds..then say I could see this going either way.

 

"Leaning towards" some solution at 6 days out is not the same as issuing an "iron clad" forecast.

 

You've been on the boards long enough to stop pretending you don't know the difference. You want a deterministic forecast at 6 days out, but I'm sorry, you aren't getting one from most people at this range. You get probabilistic forecasts with terms like "leaning towards" or "possible" and usually a lot of caveats.