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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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we were so gung ho about getting an el nino this winter

well we got one, and the pac jet is back

forecasting in DCA is simple: high temperature about 46, low about 30

rain every few days or so, rinse and repeat I've been livin' here for over 40 years now, seen this before

what a CRAPTASTIC PATTERN, what a WRETCHED place to live.

Don't worry my friend, I see plenty of jebwalks in the future.

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I think the low to the OV is off the table. if there's a clustering of GFS members, IMO, it would be for a weaker, more southerly off the coast type of deal. The best solution being the Euro gives me some confidence, but the fact that no other model has a storm that strong in that position definitely makes me wonder if the Euro just might be due to undergo some significant changes. Long way to go with this one.

I think we really all knew better....

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Decided to check the individual 21z SREF members via wxbell and unfortunately even in Southern MD about 10-11 members produce precip, however the mean is skewed by ARW members. These members have a tendency to over-amplify as we have learned in the past, so the rest of the members are only returning a mean of .065 for St. Marys county through 87 hours. Yes, a better look on the mean than 15z, but nothing new I would suspect. 

 

Really just bored and practicing for later weeks when it will be rockin.

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