Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How? Because you may get 1" instead of 2.5"? Dude..I'm not getting anything here. I'm not going to be fooled again into thinking it's going to snow here..only to watch things trend warmer each run from here on out and end up starting as an hour or 2 of sleet knocking my hair out then flipping to rain and warming into the 50's. I'm not doing that to myself again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 it's a swan dive reverse double Luigi with a twist, 8.5/10 Been laughing for a while in this thread today, I know you are too Ginxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ryan's not on here that often anymore..and when he is..he's usually doing tv hits..I agree you out of anyone focuses on all areas..but when push comes to shove..you take the Mass pike all the way to weenieville. And again..I get it. It's just an observation..because we all do it to some degree. Well if I indeed do that while living south of the pike and near the water, it may mean something..lol. That is a rough delineation many times. It's a general boundary used because it works usually either side of 10 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What do you mean? We're in solid weak territory right now...and besides, it's not what it happening right now that matters for SSTA, it's more what it was a month or 2 months ago. OBviously at the moment, we aren't acting like a Nino in North America, but it's still there and has been there. not entirely convinced on your lag ideas.The atmosphere certainly was ninoish but not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Good luck dude. Hope you're correct. I'm shaken today Over/under 70" for MBY.....everyone. Go: I say over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nothing scientific, but I doubt we see much of a -NAO this year...we've been locked into positive regime for a while and the fact that it has not even moved towards a flip is a problem. Seems that these turd winters lock in early and don't change. I'm think we torch 2nd half of January unless the EPO holds on... Kind of like saying I think it will be warm unless it's cold....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 .9 of an inch here YTD. Thinking I make 5. 10 would be a big win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Dude..I'm not getting anything here. I'm not going to be fooled again into thinking it's going to snow here..only to watch things trend warmer each run from here on out and end up starting as an hour or 2 of sleet knocking my hair out then flipping to rain and warming into the 50's. I'm not doing that to myself again Well this is what happens when you get your hopes up for 3" of crap 5+ days out. It's why I told Snowgoose this is 100% not whiffing yesterday. It's a suckbag storm to begin with. CAD or no CAD..I'm not even sure it would have helped given the BL Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Dude..I'm not getting anything here. I'm not going to be fooled again into thinking it's going to snow here..only to watch things trend warmer each run from here on out and end up starting as an hour or 2 of sleet knocking my hair out then flipping to rain and warming into the 50's. I'm not doing that to myself againtriple Lutz with a quarter turn Nelson, 6.5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Kind of like saying I think it will be warm unless it's cold....lol in a way yes, but I think it breaks pretty quick and we get firehosed with Pac air. So my money's on warm. At least I won't have to watch a snowpack get vaporized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 We melt. Not in this cold we don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We melt. Boy you can say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Been laughing for a while in this thread today, I know you are too Ginxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This is usually what happens. Instead of 3" we get 1" and the world is ending. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 triple Lutz with a quarter turn Nelson, 6.5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 classic Roger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 not entirely convinced on your lag ideas.The atmosphere certainly was ninoish but not anymore. Well you don't have to take my word for it. The idea is from literature.... http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1391 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3514.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 in a way yes, but I think it breaks pretty quick and we get firehosed with Pac air. So my money's on warm. At least I won't have to watch a snowpack get vaporized. We knew this 3 days ago, yet I was told my assessment was incorrect. Most of the progs has the Pv consolidating after the cold snap...with the epo ridge breaking down we risk losing the the cold air in Canada. If that happens time to close up shop till next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We knew this 3 days ago, yet I was told my assessment was incorrect. Most of the progs has the Pv consolidating after the cold snap...with the epo ridge breaking down we risk losing the the cold air in Canada. If that happens time to close up shop till next year. I said it a week ago and was attacked as being a weenie....guess if I had said cold and snow it would have been ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We knew this 3 days ago, yet I was told my assessment was incorrect. Most of the progs has the Pv consolidating after the cold snap...with the epo ridge breaking down we risk losing the the cold air in Canada. If that happens time to close up shop till next year. Your assessment is still incorrect...you were misinterpreting a model. That misinterpretation didn't all of the sudden change 3 days later unless the model run from that day was rerun without me noticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well this is what happens when you get your hopes up for 3" of crap 5+ days out. It's why I told Snowgoose this is 100% not whiffing yesterday. It's a suckbag storm to begin with. CAD or no CAD..I'm not even sure it would have helped given the BL Sunday. It's not so much that..it's now losing the clipper also really hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Your assessment is still incorrect...you were misinterpreting a model. That misinterpretation didn't all of the sudden change 3 days later unless the model run from that day was rerun without me noticing. Why then are posts like 07-08 and 93-94 allowed to be compared to this set-up? We have a Se ridge on roids and a storm cutting west...years like 07-08 are rare and not the rule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ginxy, you mean near term stuff? The typical ENSO forcing is dead, but it's coming back later this month. Also, the ENSO forcing started in Sept. Warmer waters, trades, TC's going to Hawaii...atmosphere was already well underway. We don't need the CPC to tell us if it's Nino...the atmosphere is capable enough to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's not so much that..it's now losing the clipper also really hurts Let's wait a few more runs before we can it. Euro hasn't exactly been stellar d5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's not so much that..it's now losing the clipper also really hurts How can you lose or gain something over a week out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why then are posts like 07-08 and 93-94 allowed to be compared to this set-up? We have a Se ridge on roids and a storm cutting west...years like 07-08 are rare and not the rule... Canada is not getting warm, and if anything...we may have more of a +PNA. As that transition occurs, you can get an inside runner which may happen after next week. If anything, a more west coast ridge may be better since you'll push the ridge further east off the SE Coast. That's way out there, but I see no reason for the December pattern that Brian is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ginxy, you mean near term stuff? The typical ENSO forcing is dead, but it's coming back later this month. Also, the ENSO forcing started in Sept. Warmer waters, trades, TC's going to Hawaii...atmosphere was already well underway. We don't need the CPC to tell us if it's Nino...the atmosphere is capable enough to do so.yea near term. Atmosphere led not lagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yea near term. Atmosphere led not lagged Ok, well there is a difference, but for now..we have a transient Nina pattern. It should go back to more Nino again..I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We knew this 3 days ago, yet I was told my assessment was incorrect. Most of the progs has the Pv consolidating after the cold snap...with the epo ridge breaking down we risk losing the the cold air in Canada. If that happens time to close up shop till next year.it was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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