powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I was not denying that those years didn't have cutters...I was referring to the fact every time they see one they refer back to a year that worked out perfectly for them...to me that's poor science to cherry pick I think most folks are smart enough not to assume it would work out EXACTLY like that. It's about the overall flavor of the pattern. We know the type of systems that came out of that winter, maybe the gradient is further north near CAR or further south near HFD. But it's the general pattern and features that are important (cold Canada and SE ridge), not the deterministic outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm kind of shocked at some of the meltdowns. I thought we did a good job conveying the uncertainty. It seems like people are holding onto hope when models are favorable 7+ days out, but that is a recipe for bitter disappointment. As tough as it is, don't even entertain anything until 120 hrs out and even then...just sort of take it fwiw. You'll probably save your own life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think most folks are smart enough not to assume it would work out EXACTLY like that. It's about the overall flavor of the pattern. We know the type of systems that came out of that winter, maybe the gradient is further north near CAR or further south near HFD. But it's the general pattern and features that are important (cold Canada and SE ridge), not the deterministic outcomes. It was also used to be analogous; something where the setup showed similar features to that season. It DOES NOT mean the outcome is the same. That may also be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It was also used to be analogous; something where the setup showed similar features to that season. It DOES NOT mean the outcome is the same. That may also be an issue. I mean, is it just us making this up or is there a reason that patterns in the objective analogs like '07-'08 and Jan '94 were showing up? It's amazing how many times on here we've stressed that don't take snowfall verbatim from analogs but yet people start accusing you of cherry picking and busting on some pattern forecast because you didn't get a crap ton of snow. Snowfall is such a highly variant sensible weather. You can get a storm in a pattern almost identical to, say, 12/16/07, yet one little nuance is off and we get 3" followed by more rain instead 8 inches on the front end...even with a very similar pattern. Maybe it is central VT/NH that gets what we got in that and we are more like NYC or SW CT in that event...those small types of differences on a geographical scale are not forecastable at 2 weeks out or even 6 days out. It almost makes talking about analog patterns undesirable because despite all the warnings, people still take them out of context or use them for the wrong variable. It goes back to what I've said a bunch of times, many on here don't actually care about anything other than snowfall on their front lawns so anything else just goes in one ear and out the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The thing is, the melts are based on nothing. From the folks who refuse to acknowledge we've had a pattern change. Comparison to 80s winters....based on? What about the numerous ratters in the 90s? Or the 2000s? BOS has had 5 winters under 20 inches since 1990, 3 of them since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 When does seasonal snow totaling begin at NWS? Is it July 1st --> June 31 of the next year? Or is it just DJF...which seems stupid and not likely. I'm pretty sure we've had just a trace for December up my way. Suppose it traces out, January, February and March, but then reduxes 1984 April, twice, and we get the May bomb of 1977. Do we get an average snow season out of that?? That would be weird - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I mean, is it just us making this up or is there a reason that patterns in the objective analogs like '07-'08 and Jan '94 were showing up? It's amazing how many times on here we've stressed that don't take snowfall verbatim from analogs but yet people start accusing you of cherry picking and busting on some pattern forecast because you didn't get a crap ton of snow. Snowfall is such a highly variant sensible weather. You can get a storm in a pattern almost identical to, say, 12/16/07, yet one little nuance is off and we get 3" followed by more rain instead 8 inches on the front end...even with a very similar pattern. Maybe it is central VT/NH that gets what we got in that and we are more like NYC or SW CT in that event...those small types of differences on a geographical scale are not forecastable at 2 weeks out or even 6 days out. It almost makes talking about analog patterns undesirable because despite all the warnings, people still take them out of context or use them for the wrong variable. It goes back to what I've said a bunch of times, many on here don't actually care about anything other than snowfall on their front lawns so anything else just goes in one ear and out the other. Agree and well said. It's frustrating when it seems like it's in one ear, out the other. I thought using these analogies helps enthusiasts out, by getting a picture in their head of the setup, since we posted about it probably 100 times. But like you said, you change something just a little bit and the outcome is way different, despite a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 When does seasonal snow totaling begin at NWS? Is it July 1st --> June 31 of the next year? Or is it just DJF...which seems stupid and not likely. I'm pretty sure we've had just a trace for December up my way. Suppose it traces out, January, February and March, but then reduxes 1984 April, twice, and we get the May bomb of 1977. Do we get an average snow season out of that?? That would be weird - It's all of winter from first to last flake independent of what month as long as it's the same cold season. So yeah 7/1-6/30 is a fine measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I was not denying that those years didn't have cutters...I was referring to the fact every time they see one they refer back to a year that worked out perfectly for them...to me that's poor science to cherry pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The thing is, the melts are based on nothing. From the folks who refuse to acknowledge we've had a pattern change. Comparison to 80s winters....based on? What about the numerous ratters in the 90s? Or the 2000s? BOS has had 5 winters under 20 inches since 1990, 3 of them since 2000. Risking being involved in a conversation that is utterly pointless and a waste of time... I disagree. The reason people are dialed in to the point of obsession is this hang up over snow falling. They've indemnified themselves to it ...like, "spiritually" for lack of better word. So much so, that if it doesn't snow it utterly controls their emotions. And THAT is the bases for their melt-downs. It is not snowing... period. Discussion ends right there. It snows, it all goes away... it doesn't snow, this sites value as a source of high brow scientific sharing and even learning and so forth, crumbles to dust. Perhaps not that extreme, but you get my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's all of winter from first to last flake independent of what month as long as it's the same cold season. So yeah 7/1-6/30 is a fine measure. Yeah the official tally is 7/1 to 6/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm kind of shocked at some of the meltdowns. I thought we did a good job conveying the uncertainty. It seems like people are holding onto hope when models are favorable 7+ days out, but that is a recipe for bitter disappointment. As tough as it is, don't even entertain anything until 120 hrs out and even then...just sort of take it fwiw. You'll probably save your own life.Even if you all did a horrible job at conveying the uncertainty people need to not let the weather dictate their emotions. They'll never learn and be the first ones to deny that they even do this, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 16.2F here One small pile left from Movember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yep, give me about 15-20 years and I'll prob be much more willing to move remote...I'll hopefully have plenty of money saved up by then. My weenie spot is somewhere in the CAD region of W ME and NE NH...that Pinkham Notch to SR to Norway, ME triangle....some of those towns are really nice and I like the more rustic nature of things there. If I got up enough courage, maybe Rangeley or Eustis. yeah that central oxford county maine area generally does the best in big storms around here...about 45 min to an hour's drive nw of where i am now. Rangely I could do, but Eustis would be a stretch as far as living. We have an 80-year old spotter call from there almost every morning...it's like a different world up there...we might as well be in different states most of the time. But man that is crazy rural. I wouldn't actually mind living up around 2,000 ft el in Pittsburg NH for a winter. I'm pretty sure we only forecast half of the snowfall they receive up there. It's amazing how other-worldly it is there. Many times it'll be in the mid 30s to low 40s here while we downslope and Pittsburg will be sitting in the single numbers and teens all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yeah that central oxford county maine area generally does the best in big storms around here...about 45 min to an hour's drive nw of where i am now. Rangely I could do, but Eustis would be a stretch as far as living. We have an 80-year old spotter call from there almost every morning...it's like a different world up there...we might as well be in different states most of the time. But man that is crazy rural. I wouldn't actually mind living up around 2,000 ft el in Pittsburg NH for a winter. I'm pretty sure we only forecast half of the snowfall they receive up there. It's amazing how other-worldly it is there. Many times it'll be in the mid 30s to low 40s here while we downslope and Pittsburg will be sitting in the single numbers and teens all day. We need to start a donation drive to get an ASOS up in Pittsburg, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Agreed,,though there comes a point in time when you have to express doubt, concern and set aside the supreme confidence in super winter coming in wearing a capelol even Jerry called you a four year old, that's pretty bad dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need to start a donation drive to get an ASOS up in Pittsburg, NH.lol, that would pretty much rock. Until then I use John's nh wx site religiously. Feel lucky to have such a robust wx site for Pittsburg.http://johnsnhweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 lol even Jerry called you a four year old, that's pretty bad dude. he wasn't referring to me. I didn't melt..but did acknowledge that there are significant concerns with your super winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I mean, is it just us making this up or is there a reason that patterns in the objective analogs like '07-'08 and Jan '94 were showing up? It's amazing how many times on here we've stressed that don't take snowfall verbatim from analogs but yet people start accusing you of cherry picking and busting on some pattern forecast because you didn't get a crap ton of snow. Snowfall is such a highly variant sensible weather. You can get a storm in a pattern almost identical to, say, 12/16/07, yet one little nuance is off and we get 3" followed by more rain instead 8 inches on the front end...even with a very similar pattern. Maybe it is central VT/NH that gets what we got in that and we are more like NYC or SW CT in that event...those small types of differences on a geographical scale are not forecastable at 2 weeks out or even 6 days out. It almost makes talking about analog patterns undesirable because despite all the warnings, people still take them out of context or use them for the wrong variable. It goes back to what I've said a bunch of times, many on here don't actually care about anything other than snowfall on their front lawns so anything else just goes in one ear and out the other. perfectly stated, what a bunch of goobers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 he wasn't referring to me. I didn't melt..but did acknowledge that there are significant concerns with your super winteryo , you forecasted more than me and yes Jerry did call you a four year old in the model thread, or was it the pattern thread or maybe the storm Jan 3 thread, one of those GD threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yo , you forecasted more than me and yes Jerry did call you a four year old in the model thread, or was it the pattern thread or maybe the storm Jan 3 thread, one of those GD threads. He wasn't talking about me...I hope Supersnow swoops in..for all our sakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 He wasn't talking about me...I hope Supersnow swoops in..for all our sakessay what Damage In Tolland Location: Tolland, CT 11 Nov 2014 BOS: 84.8 ORH: 111.4 PVD: 77.8 BDL: 87.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 He wasn't talking about me...I hope Supersnow swoops in..for all our sakes Kevin in Ma? weathafella Today, 02:47 PM Crap being put out there with tolerance by the mods. Kevin take a break...you're in 4 year old mode and your ability to fuk up every thread is getting pretty old to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hey that three separate threads stuff is working out great, you have discussion of the swfe in the pattern thread, model thread and storm thread.# fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 lol, that would pretty much rock. Until then I use John's nh wx site religiously. Feel lucky to have such a robust wx site for Pittsburg. http://johnsnhweather.com My friend, (actually Wx2fish on the board) brought that site to my attention back in 2013. He always is up there either fishing or snow mobiling and pretty much says the same as you do. It's an incredible weenie spot. We both were saying the border station up there between NH and Quebec should have a wx station. They are at like 2,400ft. He's going to try and put a stake in the ground in the ridges east of First CT lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hey that three separate threads stuff is working out great, you have discussion of the swfe in the pattern thread, model thread and storm thread.# fail I actually find it nice..the Jan 3-4 threat, you can go in there if you don't hang on the board all day and find a quick rundown of the system without scrolling through 5 pages of clutter. But if you don't like it, just hang in here like you've done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need to start a donation drive to get an ASOS up in Pittsburg, NH. Jay Peak base at 2000ft I bet would be a fascinating ASOS location. Or Mansfield at 1800ft on Big Spruce Road...I could think of a bunch of awesome spots to put ASOS where you could see SN OBS for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I actually find it nice..the Jan 3-4 threat, you can go in there if you don't hang on the board all day and find a quick rundown of the system without scrolling through 5 pages of clutter. But if you don't like it, just hang in here like you've done. why are you posting model output for a storm in a pattern thread, oddly inconsistent, lol even you got confused and had to move it, it's cool though, you learned types can raise the discourse without having to take the thirdyth of a second to scroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 why are you posting model output for a storm in a pattern thread, oddly inconsistent It wasn't supposed to be in that thread...it was moved. It looks fine now. Expecting perfection FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It wasn't supposed to be in that thread...it was moved. It looks fine now. Expecting perfection FTL. lol jk you guys are yuppity lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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