WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Any takers? Sold! If we don't have a White Christmas, at least we'll be tracking stuff. Canadian is a good model esp at day 10 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/540739355506012161 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm in. lol I had just gotten done reading banter thread winter driving tweet, then saw your reply and was like, "Whaaaaaaaa....?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Did someone say jellied moose nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 This is about the least amount of spread you'll see at this lead with the GEFS. Wow. Very strong support for anomalous ridging and potential -AO down the line poo 6 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro has the gulf low but 850's are terrible leading in. Cuts off h5 into a 4 contour bowling ball over tx/la border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro has the gulf low but 850's are terrible leading in. Cuts off h5 into a 4 contour bowling ball over tx/la border. Well, safe to say the signaling is pretty strong. Now, the cold has gotta show up. I'd even take marginal 32 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro has the gulf low but 850's are terrible leading in. Cuts off h5 into a 4 contour bowling ball over tx/la border. no prob....it'll make its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well, safe to say the signaling is pretty strong. Now, the cold has gotta show up. I'd even take marginal 32 at this point. Verbatim the setup is another retreating shallow cold hp. Surface is below freezing on saturday morning but 850's are +3. lol Not worth getting too detailed obviously. All models now show some sort of miller A at the same time. Temp problems are a given with the pattern leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well, safe to say the signaling is pretty strong. Now, the cold has gotta show up. I'd even take marginal 32 at this point. That's good since most of them are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 no prob....it'll make its own cold air Well, verbatim it has to because the only sub 0c 850's in the entire conus are on the nw side of the lp from MO to TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 That's good since most of them are here. No they're not. It's 34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well, verbatim it has to because the only sub 0c 850's in the entire conus are on the nw side of the lp from MO to TX. finally looking at the maps myself, there ain't a shot in he!! that we could get snow out of that IF that day 10 prog was right what I find interesting is, however, how another seemingly strong short waves comes 2 or 3 days before it and the Euro just dampens it out....don't recall any of the short waves doing that this year, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Would be nice to have one of those shortwaves pass and drag down cold air behind it to give a following shortwave a chance to do something with cold air near-by or in place. Then again, that pre-supposes there is cold air to drag down at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We're seeing the effects of the torchy part of the non torch. Blame Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Canadian is a good model esp at day 10 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/540739355506012161 We've had TS's in Dec before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We're seeing the effects of the torchy part of the non torch. Blame Canada yep, you start getting the kind of +departures depicted on this map in Canada and it does make a difference down our way (more than just our temps on dry days) by killing source region http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 12z gefs was a pretty big jump compared to the last 3+ runs. The trend has been similar but this run was a bigger move than you normally see. It's either a hiccup or catching onto something. I really like the member plots for the AO/EPO. Euro ens are done yet but I hope they at least agree with the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 NAO was also a noticeable step in the right direction. Even if everything depicted is too quick, if it verifies later on then we'll have some better chances without fighting temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 12z gefs was a pretty big jump compared to the last 3+ runs. The trend has been similar but this run was a bigger move than you normally see. It's either a hiccup or catching onto something. I really like the member plots for the AO/EPO. Euro ens are done yet but I hope they at least agree with the trend. The 12z Euro ENS again take till day 13+ to get the ridge in the west going. It's like Groundhog Day. Agree/Disagree? I would settle for getting inside 300 hours as a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 12z Euro ENS again take till day 13+ to get the ridge in the west going. It's like Groundhog Day. Agree/Disagree? I would settle for getting inside 300 hours as a victory. I see timing remaining set in time and not moving backwards. I went back though the last 4 ensemble runs. There are variances in the height patterns but everything looks on track. The western ridge starts building behind the sw entering the west coast around the 20th+/-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 If only that CMC model wasn't a horrible one, and that's saying it softly lol. But, man if that run kept going it would be a MECS/HECS storm for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro ens support the coastal idea. Mean track from the fl panhandle-sc coast-obx-se of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro ens support the coastal idea. Mean track from the fl panhandle-sc coast-obx-se of the benchmark. There are a few members in there that have big time snows. Also the control run, has a miller B and transfers a bit too late and has the LOW coming up through NJ-NY then new england. It has a nice HP in place also.Am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There are a few members in there that have big time snows. Also the control run, has a miller B and transfers a bit too late and has the LOW coming up through NJ-NY then new england. It has a nice HP in place also.Am I right? I don't look at the control run. The mean shows hp sliding east as the storm approaches. Assuming there is a storm and the high slides east, it's a bad setup for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 18z gefs is very amplified leading into Christmas. And is pretty cold too. No block but I'd take my chances with that kind of amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 00z GGEM boom day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 GGEM has a CAD sig at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 00z GGEM boom day 10This winter might still have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 euro has big storm....a nice high....but still rain. Dr no is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 euro has big storm....a nice high....but still rain. Dr no is back it does seem to be a theme so far....nice positioned lows with no real cold air...the idea of the storm making cold air might as well be Santa's work shop in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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