nzucker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 To answer your earlier question, the euro may be closer to correct, but it's tendency to bomb and curl back lows may be in play too. Someone said the new GFS is still a fish storm? The GFS has definitely been trending towards the ECM with its handling of the northern stream. The 12z was farther south than the 6z with more phasing potential, and the 18z was even further south than the 12z with the height contours and vorticity associated with the PV. Boston is a really close call with this storm. If it passes over the Benchmark, it's a monster hit because the storm is really strengthening as it hits the warm SSTs and incorporates the northern energy. However, if it passes over PVD, Boston is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I could not place the low track on the GFS right now better with my hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 OT but night and day para vs regular 6-10. Well it's supposedly better, but not sure if that means much in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The GFS has definitely been trending towards the ECM with its handling of the northern stream. The 12z was farther south than the 6z with more phasing potential, and the 18z was even further south than the 12z with the height contours and vorticity associated with the PV. Boston is a really close call with this storm. If it passes over the Benchmark, it's a monster hit because the storm is really strengthening as it hits the warm SSTs and incorporates the northern energy. However, if it passes over PVD, Boston is all rain. You have to factor the idea that even a perfect track makes big snow tough on 11/26 on the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You have to factor the idea that even a perfect track makes big snow tough on 11/26 on the cp. in case you were wondering about me, yea crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You have to factor the idea that even a perfect track makes big snow tough on 11/26 on the cp. Yep. Tough to expect much this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The GFS has definitely been trending towards the ECM with its handling of the northern stream. The 12z was farther south than the 6z with more phasing potential, and the 18z was even further south than the 12z with the height contours and vorticity associated with the PV. Boston is a really close call with this storm. If it passes over the Benchmark, it's a monster hit because the storm is really strengthening as it hits the warm SSTs and incorporates the northern energy. However, if it passes over PVD, Boston is all rain. I agree wholeheartedly agree, Nate. Boston is right on the precipice of rather large snowfall, it would appear. The city looks to be the battle line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man am i pumped for this.We surmised this was a possibility last week and sure as sam..it appears to be coming true. 6-12 OTG as we dig into pumpkin pie and stuffing...watching the Cowboys roll to 8-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 The 925 winds on the east side of this are 85 knots, 850 inflow is perfect , 925 temps and ageo is a thing of beauty. Great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You have to factor the idea that even a perfect track makes big snow tough on 11/26 on the cp. You also have to factor in dynamics if it really goes to town as it makes its closest pass.....tilt that ageostrophic hammer more northerly, and bam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I could not place the low track on the GFS right now better with my hand La la la la lock that in place Jeffaffa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I know what you meant John. You said right exit in your original post. I just clarified that you meant right entrance. OH, haha. sorry. Right, it's the entrance region folks -- that's a reversi typo. Also, wow at the 12z Euro... almost too far west and rainy of all things, but potent... Again, I think this situation bears some uniqueness for a compressed flow over all, in that there is a huge ...I mean, chart topper q-vector forcing due to that entrance/exit couple between the 300 and 500mb levels. Thunder snow not out of the question.... Getting into D4.5 now so we can start preliminary consideration for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah, I didn't think an event of any significance would transpire, but behold. This season has thrown some curveballs for sure. Hopefully it doesn't go too far east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 No cooking and no football on Thanksgiving with no power. You may be the only one sick enough on here to enjoy that. Yeah I mean ... at any time of the year... Ice storms, I'll take in photos and stories only, thanks. I don't see what the draw is there, because ..you can't enjoy a storm if you can't share and/or study the parameters with others and that takes the media of all kinds. These people that wish on those damn things shoot their own feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 La la la la lock that in place Jeffaffa For this far out it looks good steve, Snow for most, I want to get this to 0z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Just a phenomenol disco from Sipprell today.. he's kind of like a young Walt Drag SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ASHIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGSPROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODELSOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONESGUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah, I didn't think an event of any significance would transpire, but behold. This season has thrown some curveballs for sure. Hopefully it doesn't go too far east or west. We have seen this act a couple times so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man am i pumped for this.We surmised this was a possibility last week and sure as sam..it appears to be coming true. 6-12 OTG as we dig into pumpkin pie and stuffing...watching the Cowboys roll to 8-3 Jeez i know the boys' are having a banner year and all but i still cant put faith in the cowboys. Too many mediocre to sub par seasons the past several years. Eagles still win the NFC east even with the sanchize at QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Scooter.. we talking a wet paster type snow wire to wire..or can we start wet and turn powdery as CCB cranks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I could not place the low track on the GFS right now better with my hand lol that was today's 12z EURO for me. No good being jackpot at 120 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol that was today's 12z EURO for me. No good being jackpot at 120 hours out We know how that works don't we? But i was more referring to the GFS being east of the Euro being west, Split the difference and............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wish it wasn't a sh*t airmass ahead of it. That's a sweet track on the GFS otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Is TK drunk again? Next Friday? Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 1h 1 hour ago November thaw arrives in (least hard hit by cold) New England. Boston 43F now may not be 32F again until Friday next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If this happens like the GFS Kevib , I don't think it's pasty. The temps aloft aren't warm at all out that way. Maybe beginning as you wetbulb down, but this isn't a paste job as the GFS shows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I think we get the cold air in up here before showtime so that's a plus for the northern folk, Temps look to be crashing SE as the low wraps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Don't worry folks... Ur looking at 18" of blue bomb glory from the NE CT to the ORH Hills ... because I will be in Virginia Beach and won't be in this part of the country when this occurs. It's the purest most accurate science known to man ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wish it wasn't a sh*t airmass ahead of it. That's a sweet track on the GFS otherwise. Man, you are really pessimistic on this. GFS was actually qualitatively similar to 12z, just quantitatively more robust. General 6-12". Lightest near the NY state border, heaviest from Milford to Norwood. I think that snow map is bonkers, but that is what it depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Man, you are really pessimistic on this. GFS was actually qualitatively similar to 12z, just quantitatively more robust. General 6-12". Lightest near the NY state border, heaviest from Milford to Norwood. I think that snow map is bonkers, but that is what it depicts. He speaks like one used to being screwed this time of year, and climo and it being almost 5 full days out. The type of event depicted doesn't grow on trees in Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 He speaks like one used to being screwed this time of year, and climo and it being almost 5 full days out. The type of event depicted doesn't grow on trees in Novie. Yes. I was speaking locally. Ray actually is in a decent spot on the GFS for sure. GFS actually pins the CF near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yes. I was speaking locally. Ray actually is in a decent spot on the GFS for sure. GFS actually pins the CF near BOS. I keep for getting that you've moved...I'd be reserved living s of Boston,too. The GFS map seems to liberal with accumulations over se MA, but its irrelevant, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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