November Med/Long Range Disco

[EasternUSWX]

Well obviously I can't post the paid WXbell maps. But yes.

 

Have the same maps and still no. Might want to look closer. 0Z actually has precip over the Mid-Atlantic, 12Z did not. 

[TeleConnectSnow]

The placement of the LOW is the same exact spot, Yes, pointless precip makes it but its not generally associated with the low itself. But whatever, who cares, Im done arguing a pointless thing that most likely won't even happen.

[Amped]

Parallel GFS has 12/8/2005.  Interior NE gets slammed.

 

[TeleConnectSnow]

Amped, the next frame the low jumps back west and tucks into the coast and begins to bomb. I think it would flip to snow due to the rates and the already cold air. Some ptype maps have that scenario. 

[Amped]

Amped, the next frame the low jumps back west and tucks into the coast and begins to bomb. I think it would flip to snow due to the rates and the already cold air. Some ptype maps have that scenario. 

I think it bombs too late for us like 90% of east coast storms. NYC East might see some backlash. Front end thump here, over to Drizzle, over to windy.

[TeleConnectSnow]

I think it bombs too late for us like 90% of east coast storms. NYC East might see some backlash. Front end thump here, over to Drizzle, over to windy.

Im a bit north of you a couple counties west of philly. But who knows, just happy to have something to track once again.

[Heisy]

00z EURO 500mb loojks good for Day 7,  but without precip maps I can't really tell if frozen precip falls after cold front clears. 

[yoda]

Nice arctic cold shot Day 9 and 10 in the Upper Plains moving our way on 00z Euro tonight... -17c 850s in MN Day 10... PV over north Central Canada I believe

[Bob Chill]

Starting to see some consensus with ops and ensembles for Friday flakes. Euro ensembles made a notable shift towards laying down some precip Friday.

Unfortunately the odds are tilting towards a rainer or nothing for the threat behind it. Nothing shocking there and a long ways out.

Euro ensemble low location plots show the pattern staying active through d10-15. Preseason weenie practice will be tiring this month. 2 a days and stuff.

[aldie 22]

Can't wait until we hit 70 on Wednesday

[Bob Chill]

Today was my first day looking at any models seriously.

Friday is definitely starting to pique my interest. Doesn't look like anything major of course, but first flakes are always nice.

The threat afterward...meh.

Lol, the parallel GFS goes bananas with the "snowcover" across the northern US. Weenie run.

It's an anomalous and very fun pattern for Nov. I've been interested in it since the first signs. Accum snow will be tough. We all know it. But it's certainly not like tracking a freak timed event in the middle of a crap pattern sandwich. We've had plenty of that in djf in recent years.

Another thing that makes it a bit exciting is what it may imply for Dec. We haven't had good blocking for years. Last year was great and all but cold moved in and out within 3 days. Would be nice to have a stable cold pattern set up in winter months. Dec could be one of those based on what I'm seeing. The ao tendency to be neg could last 45 days or longer. Way too early to make that call but past history points towards the possibility coming to fruition

[AlaskaETC]

It's an anomalous and very fun pattern for Nov. I've been interested in it since the first signs. Accum snow will be tough. We all know it. But it's certainly not like tracking a freak timed event in the middle of a crap pattern sandwich. We've had plenty of that in djf in recent years.

Another thing that makes it a bit exciting is what it may imply for Dec. We haven't had good blocking for years. Last year was great and all but cold moved in and out within 3 days. Would be nice to have a stable cold pattern set up in winter months. Dec could be one of those based on what I'm seeing. The ao tendency to be neg could last 45 days or longer. Way too early to make that call but past history points towards the possibility coming to fruition

 

That's good to hear. I was worried that this pattern would be wasted early.

[Bob Chill]

That's good to hear. I was worried that this pattern would be wasted early.

 

December is still an obvious question mark but anomalous -ao decembers typically persist. This is some research I did several years ago. Shows it pretty clearly:

 

 

Obviously seasonal snowfall is a mixed bag but that is to be expected. A lot more goes into snowfall than just a -ao. A good # of the best DCA snow years are on the list though. 

 

My wag is if November ends up below -1 on the means we can probably expect some persistence going forward. 02-03 is a good example of a nov -ao keeping its act together. 

 

 

 

There are obviously no guarantees and pattern flips are always a risk but I can only see what is happening in Nov as a very positive sign. Even if things relax in early Dec, reloading everything down the line is probably more likely than losing it all together. 

[GD0815]

It's an anomalous and very fun pattern for Nov. I've been interested in it since the first signs. Accum snow will be tough. We all know it. But it's certainly not like tracking a freak timed event in the middle of a crap pattern sandwich. We've had plenty of that in djf in recent years.

Another thing that makes it a bit exciting is what it may imply for Dec. We haven't had good blocking for years. Last year was great and all but cold moved in and out within 3 days. Would be nice to have a stable cold pattern set up in winter months. Dec could be one of those based on what I'm seeing. The ao tendency to be neg could last 45 days or longer. Way too early to make that call but past history points towards the possibility coming to fruition

Good post.  Also this first cold shot looks like it has some legs it doesn't look like a 2 days and done kind of thing.  That might be a difference between this winter and last, we had some really cold days (or couple of days), but it was transient.   With a little bit more of a blocky look probable this winter, I would guess the cold periods might me of a longer duration, even if not as extreme as some of the cold last season.  In the long run, this year's setup is probably better for the changes of a big snowstorm, especially in the mid-atlantic area.

[PhineasC]

December is still an obvious question mark but anomalous -ao decembers typically persist. This is some research I did several years ago. Shows it pretty clearly:

 

Dec -AO.JPG

 

Obviously seasonal snowfall is a mixed bag but that is to be expected. A lot more goes into snowfall than just a -ao. A good # of the best DCA snow years are on the list though. 

 

My wag is if November ends up below -1 on the means we can probably expect some persistence going forward. 02-03 is a good example of a nov -ao keeping its act together. 

 

AO Graph 02-03-F.jpg

 

 

There are obviously no guarantees and pattern flips are always a risk but I can only see what is happening in Nov as a very positive sign. Even if things relax in early Dec, reloading everything down the line is probably more likely than losing it all together. 

That Feb 2010 number is crazy and says a lot about the power of a strong -AO around here.

[Heisy]

12z GFS has some nice snow showers/light snow next Friday. 1-2" for DC verbatim? I'd take it. 

[Heisy]

This is a very ominous look....

 

[Bob Chill]

12z GFS has some nice snow showers/light snow next Friday. 1-2" for DC verbatim? I'd take it. 

 

Playstation skips it east. Very similar to the euro. Can't really overthink it too much. Small/weak system affecting small piece of real estate. We won't know much until the midweek front is resolved. 

[T. August]

12z GFS has some nice snow showers/light snow next Friday. 1-2" for DC verbatim? I'd take it. 

It would be a nice first snow. 1.0" at DCA.

 

All I'm after is a trace.

[AlaskaETC]

Really, mid-air flurries would be fine. Anything else would be a bonus. I won't start weenie-ing for snow until December.

[WEATHER53]

I'll tell you what though, the cold is relentless on the GFS. 

It's beginning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bob Chill]

I'll tell you what though, the cold is relentless on the GFS. 

 

And stormy. All models and ensembles have a stormy look once the cold gets here.

[mitchnick]

all I can say is if this map is closer to reality wrt ENSO anomalies, good times will be rolling around here come JAN-MAR regardless of NOV-DEC

[WxUSAF]

And stormy. All models and ensembles have a stormy look once the cold gets here.

Op and Para both have a big Day 10-ish storm and the Euro has hinted at the same. 

[T. August]

Op and Para both have a big Day 10-ish storm and the Euro has hinted at the same. 

GFS P (GPS?) was close... just a bit too warm.

[MDstorm]

all I can say is if this map is closer to reality wrt ENSO anomalies, good times will be rolling around here come JAN-MAR regardless of NOV-DEC

Yup. SOI continues negative. Modoki high end weak/possibly low end mod Niño is before us.

[Amped]

Euro may start as snow before we get torched on the day8-9 cutter.   Solid -EPO -NAO blocks in place. I'd say it's too much blocking if anything.

[Heisy]

This is CRAZY for November...

 

 

[BTRWx]

This is CRAZY for November...

 

 

Check out the mslp map to go with it! http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20141108185643-28492-5903.gif Is that not bombing out??

[WxUSAF]

Wonder if DT's going to tell us how it's meteorologically unpossible for a storm to cut directly into that blocking pattern.  Since it's the Euro that shows it, I'm guessing not.