TwcMan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Its also a good idea IMO to look at the total recorded history at NYC before coming to conclusions http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Judging by that..if we can get a 3rdr 50+ inch snowfall season this decade(10-20) in NYC..looks like it would be the first time it's happened on record. 09-10 would be considered last decade (00-09) according to that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 December 2002 after that storm on the 5th we torch after correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 yes. the xmas storm worked with a crappy airmass which kept totals down in the immediate metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Then we wait a little bit longer, relax it's only nov 19th. Last week of December and January should be rocking debbie downers galore in here! Patience is needed here, El Nino winters are marathon not a sprint. We start slow but save it for the end (january/ february). that said id love a Xmas 02' storm with that prolific bankend snow again, most intense rates ive experienced ever since 96' IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Its also a good idea IMO to look at the total recorded history at NYC before coming to conclusions http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html 1932 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1931-32 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 T 0 0 5.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Idk if it's anticipation or what but this month has felt like forever to get through compared to October. It doesn't help looking at those crazy thundersnow videos of the LES event as well as the hype surrounding this season. Im sure Jan/Feb will be great but I still want to make sure we're on the right track even on Nov. 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I'm not even sure what the issue is—I already have about 7% of my seasonal average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 yes. the xmas storm worked with a crappy airmass which kept totals down in the immediate metro 2004 weak niño mild December with a late storm that brushed the coast I believe. Then the first week of January we torched and the rest was history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 2004 weak niño mild December with a late storm that brushed the coast I believe. Then the first week of January we torched and the rest was history People also forget that after Christmas 2002 we got very little snow until early February. January was plenty cold with a lot of minor snow shower type events but nothing more than an inch or two. The expectations that a snowy winter means every month from Dec-March is great is setting people up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Funny how cheap midnight highs killed the cold snap a bit. Monday night prevented NYC from a bigger departure and last night prevented them from a daily low max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 People also forget that after Christmas 2002 we got very little snow until early February. January was plenty cold with a lot of minor snow shower type events but nothing more than an inch or two. The expectations that a snowy winter means every month from Dec-March is great is setting people up for disappointment. Yes! The only wire to wire winter had to be 95-96 and even then we had a thaw for a bit after the blizzard. Last year was close but the snowless end of feb and miss chances in March killed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 1932 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1931-32 0 0 0 0 2.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 T 0 0 5.3 We still haven't been able to rival that January warmth. Must have been a real shock to have the coldest month on record two years later in February 1934. 43.2.....1932 41.4.....1990,1950 40.9......1913,2006 40.3......1933 40.2......1937 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Yes! The only wire to wire winter had to be 95-96 and even then we had a thaw for a bit after the blizzard. Last year was close but the snowless end of feb and miss chances in March killed that December was snowless as well. Last winter was essentially from Jan 1-Feb 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The Euro looks dangerous for next week. Doesn't quite pull it off, but it caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 December was snowless as well. Last winter was essentially from Jan 1-Feb 15th.We had two plowable events at my location last December. 3 inch storm to start December and a 4 inch storm that changed to ice around the 18th. Also we had snow showers on Xmass eveNYC had 8.6 last December. Above avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The Euro looks dangerous for next week. Doesn't quite pull it off, but it caught my attention. That is quite a trough, your right it is close and the models have been pretty consistent with this time period thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And now the Euro has a big interior snow event for the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z euro drops the hammer next weekend with cold for the country.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro is a warning criteria snowfall away from the urban areas on the 29th. Still a few inches for the immediate coast. This is what I was talking about when I said yesterday that one might sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro is quite different than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The Euro looks dangerous for next week. Doesn't quite pull it off, but it caught my attention. Horrible set-up and with a even worse air-mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Horrible set-up and with a even worse air-mass Would you care to explain why it's such a horrible setup, or did you just copy and past what you read in the New England forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro is a warning criteria snowfall away from the urban areas on the 29th. Still a few inches for the immediate coast. This is what I was talking about when I said yesterday that one might sneak up on us. Huh ? We said the weekend after thanksgiving would be cold - your post said no You posted both this weekend and next weekend would be warm .We argued COLD I caught the edit . See below Snow88, on 19 Nov 2014 - 1:24 PM, said: Wait, are you talking about this upcoming weekend or the weekend after Thanksgiving. I thought you were talking about next weekend. Looks like low 60s for early next week before it gets cold again. IsentropicLift, on 20 Nov 2014 - 1:53 PM, said: I'm talking about both. The system cutting all the way to the UP of Michigan changes everything, waiting to see what happens. Now you want to take credit for making a call ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Huh ? We said the weekend after thanksgiving would be cold - your post said no You posted both this weekend and next weekend would be warm .We argued COLD I caught the edit . See below Snow88, on 19 Nov 2014 - 1:24 PM, said: IsentropicLift, on 20 Nov 2014 - 1:53 PM, said: I'm talking about both. The system cutting all the way to the UP of Michigan changes everything, waiting to see what happens. Now you want to take credit for making a call ? I suspect that something is going to sneak up on us inside of 5 days during the next month or so. Without any blocking it's going to be a thread the needle type event that's not terribly obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And today's 12z Euro run is wildly different than yesterday. That comment about a warm weekend was based off prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 So you gave yourself a 30 day window . That`s bal%$^& . Point is yesterday we argued the GFS was cold for next weekend and the Euro may be wrong and you took the GGEM as an ally Your comment was off the Euro OP at 12z . I know what you based it off . Just don`t claim victory when you argued the contrary just 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 So you gave yourself a 30 day window . That`s bal%$^& . Point is yesterday we argued the GFS was cold for next weekend and the Euro may be wrong and you took the GGEM as an ally Your comment was off the Euro OP at 12z . I know what you based it off . Just don`t claim victory when you argued the contrary just 24 hours ago. Who's claming victory? Next week could very well end up as a massive cutter and we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 How accurate is the Euro past day 5, I've read before how the accuracy between the gfs and Euro is about the same after a certain time. If that's the case then we can't always go with what the Euro says as it's been known to swing wildly just as much as the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The game changer for the Euro today is hitting the 144 hr vort harder which drags the baroclinic zone further SE. The 12z run yesterday didn't have this feature so strong. If the 144 hr low verifies, then the day 8-9 storm won't be able to cut to the Lakes and warm things up here. So more runs of the Euro showing this means that the warm up Sun-Tues is one and done. This will increase the magnitude of the November cold departure. yesterday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 And today's 12z Euro run is wildly different than yesterday. That comment about a warm weekend was based off prior runs. Until the pattern locks in, expect a lot of wild swings with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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