IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's actually nearly a tripple phaser because a piece of the PV phases in with the backside energy near Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Isentropiclift, you see what I mean now? Since there was less separation the trough stays more progressive. Yes, to be clear I was being critical of words such as "could be" & "we'll see". It makes people think you're guessing. Overall, good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's actually nearly a tripple phaser because a piece of the PV phases in with the backside energy near Minnesota. Without blocking theres nothing to slow down the vort, so if it phases it does it way too late. Last nights euro and todays PGFS was slower with this energy allowing time for a better phase. Still time to go but the pattern def isnt that condusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And now the energy dropping in the backside is going to generate a second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Without blocking theres nothing to slow down the vort, so if it phases it does it way too late. Last nights euro and todays PGFS was slower with this energy allowing time for a better phase. Still time to go but the pattern def isnt that condusive. The Euro is known for hanging back energy in the southwest. I was quite surprised to see it east of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Precip shield looks like a compromise between the parallel and OP GFS. Further to the west than the drier op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Snow breaking out in NC/VA hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Closes off at H5 hr 162 East of the VA Capes and bombs away from there, but it just brushes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol at the EURO day 7 wtf?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol at the EURO day 7 wtf?! A little more tucked in than the parallel GFS, but has the 2 wave solution also. We will probably need to see how the early week GL cutter leaves the baroclinic zone along the EC first. Multiple vorts are a big challenge even at closer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol at the EURO day 7 wtf?! PV energy phasing in with the leftover shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 PV energy phasing in with the leftover shortwave. I know, just funny...i think Id prefer if the first vort scoots through fast and givea more room for 2nd low, more cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 A little more tucked in than the parallel GFS, but has the 2 wave solution also. We will probably need to see how the early week GL cutter leaves the baroclinic zone along the EC first. Multiple vorts are a big challenge even at closer ranges. back to back snowstorms? Doubt it but that would be the best November in decades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF went stronger with the trailing shortwave. That kicked the leading shortwave out. Therefore you have two lows form with just a glancing blow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 back to back snowstorms? Doubt it but that would be the best November in decades! Nobody said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 back to back snowstorms? Doubt it but that would be the best November in decades! Going to change many times since there are so many players on the board to even guess at ptypes or track yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF went stronger with the trailing shortwave. That kicked the leading shortwave out. Therefore you have two lows form with just a glancing blow for us. A lead shortwave shearing out any development? Where have i seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Two close calls. Fun to track the next several days. BONUS to even be tracking the possibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Two close calls. Fun to track the next several days. BONUS to even be tracking the possibility... Agreed. Be nice to track something before we moderate temporarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 20 MB drop inside 24 hours . Could use the Pacific to slow just a bit to pull that ridge line back so this can turn. The shunt East comes from the Pacific . No blocking to speak of so I`m not sure I would buy the exit stage right look . I am more inclined when I see that kind of deepening to think its a smidge more NE than E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Models are having a tough time which vort to key on. Follow the Euro and GFS ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF went stronger with the trailing shortwave. That kicked the leading shortwave out. Therefore you have two lows form with just a glancing blow for us. It was just faster with the lead shortwave, which allowed the backside energy more room to amplify. We either need that lead energy to get out of the way or slow down enough so that it can completely phase. The Euro op was an in between solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Going to change many times since there are so many players on the board to even guess at ptypes or track yet. Yeah I don't know where one would get a idea like that from today's 12z runs. IMHO is one or the other and not both . The second vort would be better for the coast as it has a better air mass to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Funny that if one of these do occur that it's very similar to 2002 where we were able to sneak in an event prior to a mild spell but this time it'll be about a week earlier. I wouldn't bet on it though it's probably just some model noise but fun to track regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Well this place is gonna be fun tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here is the second system with the closed 500mb low. Just a bit too far South. I'm intrigued enough to stay up for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The ridge positioning both to the east and north of these incoming shortwaves argues to me that this storm has a higher than normal likelihood of coming up the coast. While we still need the pieces to fall in to place and the energy to interact correctly, the mid level height alignment is not one that will be overly open to allowing the system to escape east. What could happen, instead, is that the lead shortwave will dampen out and elongate from southwest to northeast along the periphery of the West Atlantic ridge. If this happens, there will be no storm from that initial disturbance. But the forecast models, today, have gotten much more impressive with both the ridge on the west coast (its alignment and its intensity) and the trailing shortwave which shoots through the Plains. This is the energy that eventually buckles the flow enough and forces the PVA/surface low development near OBX. That being said, it is important to note that there are actually three different players on the field as advertised by the forecast models currently. We have the lead wave mentioned above, the trailing wave coming through the Plains, and then a disturbance in the Great Lakes which is actually attached to a northern stream upper level low. Today's 12z models began to key in on the fact that this piece of energy will be more energetic as a whole, and will dip southward as a result of the ridging to the west and buckling flow to its northwest. That piece of energy dropping southward and getting involved changes the whole upper level orientation. This is why the 12z Euro can amplify the Plains disturbance even though it misses the phase with the first disturbance -- the flow buckles so much as a result of the Great Lakes energy that it allows the two to phase. I highlighted this below -- look at the wave spacing between the two as the Great Lakes energy drops southward. All of these pieces of energy and their interactions are going to be essential to figuring out exactly how this entire thing will shake down. The good news, going in, is that the cold front crossing just prior to the event gives us a supportive airmass and leaves the baroclinic zone in a favorable spot. We don't have a ton of blocking but, as it stands now, we do have just a slow enough flow for this all to develop. So it's possible. But for now, it's a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It was just faster with the lead shortwave, which allowed the backside energy more room to amplify. We either need that lead energy to get out of the way or slow down enough so that it can completely phase. The Euro op was an in between solution. It's a little bit of both. The timing and spacing differences between each shortwave, are really small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Stay awake for 00z? Lets not forget about the red headed step child suite, 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Great summary Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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