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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm

BuffaloWeather

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

Save-worthy AFD from BUF.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...INCREDIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

OFF LAKE ERIE...RAP ANALYSIS EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED A SLIGHT
BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE NEARLY STEADY STATE
RADAR RETURNS MOVING JUST A MILE OR SO TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER
ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS SOME EXPECTED VEERING WITH A SECOND SOUTHERN
BAND SNOW STARTING TO COMPETE WITH THE MAIN DOMINANT BAND. THERE
ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT MAY RESULT - THE FIRST BAND MAY FALL APART
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SECOND BAND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN
ERIE COUNTY AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...OR A SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE
PRIMARY BAND...BUT STAYING OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS AND BOSTON HILLS.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE LATTER IN MIND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...THE
SNOW CONTINUES TO PILE UP WITH EXTREME AMOUNTS SHOWING UP ALL OVER SOCIAL
MEDIA.

A NOTE TO ANY CURIOUS NORTHTOWNS FOLK - PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE SOUTH INTO THE BAND. TO BE BLUNT - IT IS NOT SAFE. A SAFETY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT OTHER
SAFETY CONCERNS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP TO STEER THIS LAKE BAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BUFFALO
METRO AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT HELPS TO CAP THE
LAKE CONVECTION. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE BAND ON ITS TREK NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AND
LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AND NORTHTOWNS TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL DETERIORATE AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WILL GENERALLY ONLY AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...ANOTHER WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE BAND IS IN
PLACE CENTERED ACROSS WATERTOWN. THIS BAND WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. WATERTOWN SHOULD SEE A BREAK OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND MAKES
THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SAME STEERING FLOW THAT
SHIFTS THE LAKE ERIE BAND BACK TO THE NORTH WILL THEN SHIFT THE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND NORTHWARD BACK ACROSS WATERTOWN AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OFF OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO
MORE MEANDERING NORTH/SOUTH OF THE LAKE BAND. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS...AROUND 50 INCHES OR SO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS...TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE STATE
BORDER. NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A FEW LOWER
20 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FOUND. THESE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOW VALUES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RUN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN VERY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
LOW TO MID 20S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ON THE WAY LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH. WEAK ASCENT WITH THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL WAVE MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE MESOSCALE AND THE LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 10K
FEET INITIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN RISE TO AROUND 15K FEET ON
THURSDAY WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ON THE COLLIER INDEX. THIS EVENT
WILL STILL BE STRONG BY MOST STANDARDS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS
EXTREME AS THIS FIRST EVENT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE
AS STRONG...AND THE AIRMASS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS MOIST THAN THE
FIRST EVENT. NONETHELESS IT STILL LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SOLID 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS OFF BOTH LAKES.

THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN THE FIRST ONE...WITH
LAKE BANDS FIRST DEVELOPING ON A SSW FLOW THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
ON THURSDAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO NIAGARA COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL
THEN QUICKLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY AND THE NORTHTOWNS TO
A POSITION IN THE HEART OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING...AND ALSO EXTENDING EAST INTO GENESEE COUNTY.
THURSDAY MORNING THE BAND MAY BECOME FAIRLY STEADY STATE FROM SOUTH
BUFFALO THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHTOWNS AND EASTERN SUBURBS...OVER
THE SAME AREAS HIT HARDEST TODAY. BY LATER IN THE DAY THERE SHOULD
BE A NOTABLE SHIFT SOUTH...AND THE BAND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO SKI
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CHAU/CATT COUNTIES AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE AIRMASS GROWS
MUCH DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP OVER THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION DURING THE
WEE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH TO THE
WATERTOWN TO FORT DRUM CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL
OSWEGO COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BAND MAY FOCUS ON OSWEGO COUNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY
AND POSSIBLY BREAKING UP INTO MULTIPLE BANDS. SOME WEAKER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FROM THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY...BUT THIS
SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY TAME WITH A SHORTER FETCH AND STEADILY
DRYING AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER. IT WILL BE QUITE
WINDY AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER BANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY AGAIN REACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MORE
INTENSE BANDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MAJOR TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND ALSO NEAR WATERTOWN WITH MAJOR
ROAD CLOSURES POSSIBLE.
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chietanen

chietanen

Posted
Posted

Lackawanna west Seneca Elma should have more than Lancaster

 

When did the heavy snow really start? I wonder if the state 24 hour record could fall. I believe it's 68", though I'm not sure if the 77" from Montague that was discarded by the NWS as the national title still stands as the state title. Anyone know?

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