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Carvers Gap

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Only takes one big system to change the perspect of this winter. But you really have to be shaking your head at this point. Hoping something verifies for a few inches here and there is really disappointing. I would've thought we'd have seen something a little more substantial at this point for 2015, especially in the upper valley.

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Whats really strange to me is that CSV's max and mean is lower than both BNA and TYS, and TYS max and mean are both higher than BNA.   I would think BNA would have the highest since the system is losing QPF in most models as it moves east.  The QPF means BNA .11, CSV .08, TYS .12.  I know we are only talking about a few hundredths of an inch in variance, but still  seems odd to me.

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Also just noticed the last few forecast discussions for Nashville NWS have been done by Morristown for some reason.  Wonder why MRX is doing their discussions...

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2015

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Also just noticed the last few forecast discussions for Nashville NWS have been done by Morristown for some reason.  Wonder why MRX is doing their discussions...

Read on the other Tennessee forum that OHX is having a computer upgrade today.

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Gahh!  What happened to my birthday snow for tomorrow???  I thought I was at least going to see some flakes for once, but now MRX has 0% precipitation for either tonight OR tomorrow.  I guess I need to go out and buy a snow globe or something.  :lmao:;)

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The optimist in me can't give up in early February.  I think we see at least one storm in the state when the trough finally pulls back a bit.  After that we can always hope for a closed low to do it's thing somewhere in the SE.

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Gahh!  What happened to my birthday snow for tomorrow???  I thought I was at least going to see some flakes for once, but now MRX has 0% precipitation for either tonight OR tomorrow.  I guess I need to go out and buy a snow globe or something.  :lmao:;)

lol, no doubt.  Seems we can't even buy flurries all the sudden.

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Its so incredible to see all that moisture to the south, it even worked further northward than I think was expected for the most part, but its oh so close and yet so far...

 

I want to be optimistic about those popup showers in AR, I guess prefrontal moisture maybe getting caught up, but its hard to be.  At least MRX thinks up to a 1/2 inch...  So maybe a dusting...  I think i'm ready for spring.

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It sure is a boring pattern that is depicted on the models.  I suppose on the plus side, the GFS looks fairly cold.  Like Bob says, we need our cold air in place first and foremost.  But, aside from the end of the run truncation craziness, there doesn't seem to be much moisture to go with it.  I still think there is a reasonable chance for something frozen in February, hell I'd take a good old fashion ice storm at this point.  I hate to be "that guy", but I'd prefer it be warm rather than this up and down near miss mess.  Watching the tomato seedlings under the grow light has me itching to get some stuff in the ground.  Hopefully the teleconnections don't decide to flip in March/April and delay it.

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El Niño is going to fry(as in late freeze) everything this spring. Niño springs are hated by gardeners in these parts. Does appear Niño is here. Niño climo will win the day IMO and it will snow. Beware March....and I think Feb spawns one monster.

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Yeah Carvers I am actually kinda worried about late season severe cold too. I have a feeling we will see a snow or two, but it will be late for sure. I could see a 3-4inch in mid to late Feb. And a whopper in March. I'm not even ruling out an April destroyer lol. There is an aweful lot of cold air lurking in Canada and the 18z GFS shows just how it could come down. I could be wrong, but I imagine we will see just how tough a late season winter can be. Overall, this winter has been cold to me and wet. It's just the timing has been off for

Snow. We haven't really torched at all

This winter. Sure we've seen some 50 degree days and a 60 or two, but really, we've had a lot of 30s and 40s and even some sub freezing days. If 18z is right, we will have a lot more 30 and lower days and many teen and lower nights.

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18z is bone jarring cold. Looks like the winter is about to remember November. Brutal cold for Feb.

I agree man I think we are going to hit our stride in the coming weeks. I do agree about late season cold. I think here especially in March and April we will see some late season snow especially in the mountains.

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I never quit on winter here before Mid April. I commonly get 3-6 inches in March and every 3-4 years a good 2-4 inch snow happens in April. Of course that's less likely for lower elevations/south of 40 in the Valley. 

 

Once February 15th passes though, I get out of the mode where I expect sustained cold that will allow snow to stay on the ground for days on end will occur. Though even that is possible. At some point in our lives, the winter of 1960 will repeat, as will a major 15-20 inch snow for all of us. Those actually happen every 5-10 years before this latest streak of bad winters.

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It's amazing to me that the Euro ensembles are virtually snowless through the period across the valley, in February.  It's been like that for several days in a row.  You'd think there would be some hint, some possibility shown.  Of course that doesn't mean there isn't hope, but geez it looks dire.

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