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Carvers Gap

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As we all know...forecasting is very, very tough. However, I cannot remember a winter where there were so many bullish, snow filled predictions that have (so far...and I know it's far from over) crashed and burned. Forecasting is like winning the lottery; when success hinges on A, B, C, D, E & F being exactly right, it get's way too difficult to hit them all. Granted someone has to win...and we may before this season's over!

 

But I'm not going to quit my job just because I have ticket to the next Pick Six.  :snowing:

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Quickly has become my LEAST favorite winter ever.

 

Yeah, it has been pretty lame so far. Cold and dry or wet and warm. Take your pick.

 

What makes it worse is that there hasn't even been any big fantasy events showing on the models for the valley. We can't even get fantasy snow!

 

I wonder if we will manage to hit our average snowfall this year. That is all I want at this point.

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Yeah, it has been pretty lame so far. Cold and dry or wet and warm. Take your pick.

 

What makes it worse is that there hasn't even been any big fantasy events showing on the models for the valley. We can't even get fantasy snow!

 

I wonder if we will manage to hit our average snowfall this year. That is all I want at this point.

Yep, it's frustrating b/c we haven't really had a torch, and we can't even get the modeling to show us a good pattern.  Well, except for the GFS 300+ in the last week.  I am still holding out hope, not jumping a cliff like many.  Many Nino's are back loaded, so time will tell where we go from here.  Like you, I just want a couple of good snows and I am happy for another year.

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The euro control snow map won't ever come close to looking this good for the entire state of TN again....... I bet. We just jackpotted on it, haha.

 

With visual goodness, 12z Euro Ensemble Mean Snow:

dewqHTe.png

 

Control:

rNdYVzt.png

 

Units don't even matter, the point is the Euro (and GFS) are sniffing something out during this time period.  That is exciting.

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THE TREND TOWARD A COLDER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TODAY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A FAIRLY 

LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT IS WORTH DISCUSSING AT SOME LENGTH. THE 

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC RUN BOTH FAVOR A SHORTER

TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WAVELENGTH FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, 

WHICH PLACES LARGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL 

CONUS, WHICH IN TURN SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK NEAR THE EASTERN 

SEABOARD. THE GFS SOLUTIONS, BY CONTRAST, HAVE THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED 

FARTHER EAST NEARER THE GREAT LAKES, INDICATIVE OF A DRIER PATTERN ACROSS THE 

EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK. TELECONNECTING UPON THE 

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE IN ALL THE MODEL 

SOLUTIONS YIELDS A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF, WHILE A TELECONNECTION 

UPON THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ANALOGS, 

HOWEVER, TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD, AS DOES THE CANADIAN 

ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS 

IN TODAY'S FORECAST. UPON INSPECTION OF ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THE GFS 

SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER, THOUGH IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 

RUNS.

GFS has been consistent, i must say.Here's a quote from today's CPC

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It's even worse than I thought after looking at the picture again.  The 18 wheeler only has 14 wheels.  Losing 10 of them has to be catastrophic!  lol

 

The "improved" GFS only has 14 wheels as a result of the sequester.  Due to additional budget cuts, 4 of those aren't even allowed to touch the ground.  Getting flats on all 10 remaining tires results in something so disastrous and dire that... only the 12z maps can describe it.

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GFS showed the best fantasy storm of the season towards the end of the month.Negative tilted trough going through the Valley,goes into the NE for a 50/50 ,970mb pumping cold air down S,end of the run the thickness was down to 507 with the 850's down to -19.2C  and still dropping,using the BNA text.850'S AT 0 all the way past Tampa.Just for fantasy purposes only.

 

But we are fixing to head into favorable time for the MJO,As shown here the MJO is fixing to go into p8 though the signals are weak

 

 

 

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