SACRUS Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Most sites -10 or more on the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Coldest July on record for Indiana and Arkansas with several states having a top 5 coldest Jan-Jul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Its Napoleon out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 49.1f last night... Currently down to 53f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Later next week, has more of a omega block look, then a classic -NAO. Major heat stays to our Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 90 degree days since 1984: Year..EWR....NYC....LGA.....JFK 84...22...10...9...13 85...11....9....8....5 86...22...11...9...8 87...37...22...19..11 88...43...32...26...14 89...27...16...17...9 90...26...12...10...6 91...41...39...26...13 92...22.....9...9......6 93...49...39...26...13 94...39...19...22...7 95...33...29...23...15 96....8.....3.....6....4 97...20...12...17...10 98...21.....8....11....5 99...33...27...26....14 00...16....7.....12.....6 01...22...15...17.....8 02...41...32....35...21 03...20....8...17.....12 04...13...2.....7.......1 05...37...23...30.....17 06...26...8....22......12 07...21..10...23.......7 08...22...12...19......9 09...14....7.....8.......6 10...54....37...48.....32 11...31...20...19.....13 12...33...19....28....16 13...25....17....21....9 14...10....4......3......1....so far *JFK currently tied for fewest 90 degree since 1984 days at 1 *LGA currently at fewest 90 degree days since 1984 with 3 days behind the 6 of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 This summer has been such a contrast from the past few years and it's awesome. Yesterday was like mid September and I'm already seeing isolated leaf change which may be from stress though our rainfall has been fairly sufficient. Usually when you step outside this time of year it's disgusting but it's the exact opposite. Since this patterns been so persistent I don't see huge changes going forward. What was supposed to be a strong late summer heat surge has been muted yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Even with a strong ridge building in, and what otherwise would have been a pretty warm pattern they'll be systems and cutoof undercutting the ridge. We'll see how many warm days we can muster and if any heat reaches the area but looking no likely through Friday (8/22) now. You just cant buy heat the last 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 But what can be denied this summer is a great stretch of weekend weather. Another nice one ahead today. Skies clearing up and sun on its way with another gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Even with a strong ridge building in, and what otherwise would have been a pretty warm pattern they'll be systems and cutoof undercutting the ridge. We'll see how many warm days we can muster and if any heat reaches the area but looking no likely through Friday (8/22) now. You just cant buy heat the last 6 weeks. Agreed. We may go the year without an official heat wave in NYC, unless a highly anomalous pattern develops in September. The last week to 10 days of August still looks to average warmer than normal due largely to increased humidity and higher nighttime lows. When we total the 3 meteorological summer months, it's going to come out very close to normal which is what both of us expected this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Agreed. We may go the year without an official heat wave in NYC, unless a highly anomalous pattern develops in September. The last week to 10 days of August still looks to average warmer than normal due largely to increased humidity and higher nighttime lows. When we total the 3 meteorological summer months, it's going to come out very close to normal which is what both of us expected this year. We'll see how warm we can get it thu (8/21) - sat (8/22) this week. And also heights look to remain high into the east with troughing into the west into early September. Perhaps its a labor day heat spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Milky skies pushing into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 We'll see how warm we can get it thu (8/21) - sat (8/22) this week. And also heights look to remain high into the east with troughing into the west into early September. Perhaps its a labor day heat spell... The 20c 850 line is still close on some GFS runs. So maybe a couple spells of 90 degrees plus? Or does it look like 80s at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 The 20c 850 line is still close on some GFS runs. So maybe a couple spells of 90 degrees plus? Or does it look like 80s at this point? We struggled all summer for 90s and it's gonna be hard after 8/20 so i would bet on mostly 80s with high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Another great beach day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 A remarkable 1.76" in 15 minutes at Islip during the peak of the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 A remarkable 1.76" in 15 minutes at Islip during the peak of the deluge. islipmin.jpg And an even inch in 8 min! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 90 degree days since 1984: Year..EWR....NYC....LGA.....JFK 84...22...10...9...13 85...11....9....8....5 86...22...11...9...8 87...37...22...19..11 88...43...32...26...14 89...27...16...17...9 90...26...12...10...6 91...41...39...26...13 92...22.....9...9......6 93...49...39...26...13 94...39...19...22...7 95...33...29...23...15 96....8.....3.....6....4 97...20...12...17...10 98...21.....8....11....5 99...33...27...26....14 00...16....7.....12.....6 01...22...15...17.....8 02...41...32....35...21 03...20....8...17.....12 04...13...2.....7.......1 05...37...23...30.....17 06...26...8....22......12 07...21..10...23.......7 08...22...12...19......9 09...14....7.....8.......6 10...54....37...48.....32 11...31...20...19.....13 12...33...19....28....16 13...25....17....21....9 14...10....4......3......1....so far *JFK currently tied for fewest 90 degree since 1984 days at 1 *LGA currently at fewest 90 degree days since 1984 with 3 days behind the 6 of 1996. Why did you pick such an arbitrary cutoff such as 1984? Or is it that you just didn't have the data prior to that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Another great beach day ..hoping it clears out in time tomorrow to salvage another sunday beach day. not sure if it will,though..surf temp. seemed a lot colder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Why did you pick such an arbitrary cutoff such as 1984? Or is it that you just didn't have the data prior to that year? Those stats were from the thread that I did a while back on 30 year summer temperature trends starting in 84. In any event, the highs this summer at the major reporting stations are well below the 100+ of recent years. 2014 summer highs so far: NYC.....91 LGA.....93 JFK......91 EWR....96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 i went out this morning and i saw lot's of yellow brown leaves son the ground..very unusual for this time of year for the leaves to start changing in nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 3rd coolest Jan-Jul at NYC since 1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Those stats were from the thread that I did a while back on 30 year summer temperature trends starting in 84. In any event, the highs this summer at the major reporting stations are well below the 100+ of recent years. 2014 summer highs so far: NYC.....91 LGA.....93 JFK......91 EWR....96 Looking at some long range models, it is a relief to say we struggle above 82 after Monday for the rest of the month. September looks like some very cool shots from Quebec, Canada and directed towards us. Atlantic Canada blocking may take hold in Sept 14 as well. Summer heat is definitely done for us (90's)!!! Closing the book soon on one heck of a pleasant summer. The -EPO looks go on forever, and should guarantee us a wicked cold winter as nothing seems to stop it. The waters south of Alaska are very warm !!!!! If we have a weak El Nino, we could lock in a full fledged blockbuster winter, like a top 5 or top 2 of all time.... I am extremely excited for high probability prospects for this with astounding teleconnectors as of late August on the global indexes and the quiet solar too.... I wonder if we have to suffer a hurricane strike or fringe next month as the Sep pattern is looking favorable for a strike if something is there to track near East coast. WAR ridge off the east coast and some maritime Canada and New Foundland blocking, with higher heights to our East and northeast could be concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Looking at some long range models, it is a relief to say we struggle above 82 after Monday for the rest of the month. September looks like some very cool shots from Quebec, Canada and directed towards us. Atlantic Canada blocking may take hold in Sept 14 as well. Summer heat is definitely done for us (90's)!!! Closing the book soon on one heck of a pleasant summer. The -EPO looks go on forever, and should guarantee us a wicked cold winter as nothing seems to stop it. The waters south of Alaska are very warm !!!!! If we have a weak El Nino, we could lock in a full fledged blockbuster winter, like a top 5 or top 2 of all time.... I am extremely excited for high probability prospects for this with astounding teleconnectors as of late August on the global indexes and the quiet solar too.... I wonder if we have to suffer a hurricane strike or fringe next month as the Sep pattern is looking favorable for a strike if something is there to track near East coast. WAR ridge off the east coast and some maritime Canada and New Foundland blocking, with higher heights to our East and northeast could be concerning. would be nice if you had some concrete evidence to back up your extreme predictions all the time - not even the most skilled MET would be able to predict a top 5 or top 2 of all time - even on DEC 1st................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 -EPO and weak nino are great starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 i went out this morning and i saw lot's of yellow brown leaves son the ground..very unusual for this time of year for the leaves to start changing in nyc.. Likely stress as the color change is much more attributed to length of daylight than temps. The strong cooldown is only 3 days and has peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The cooldown by site NYC: Aug (-1.7) 8/14: 77/62 (-6) 8/15: 73/61 (-9) 8/16: 78/63 (-4) EWR: Aug (-2.0) 8/14: 81/62 (-4) 8/15: 75/59 (-9) 8/16: 81/58 (-6) LGA: Aug (-1.8) 8/14: 79/64 (-5) 8/15: 73/63 (-9) 8/16: 79/66 (-4) JFK: Aug (-1.0) 8/14: 80/65 (-2) 8/15: 76/62 (-6) 8/16: 77/63(-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Negative departures this month are greater as you go sw from the city... running a -3 departure here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 New NAEFS overnight shows 50%> probability of below normal temps for the last of week of August: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 This weather is stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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