winterwarlock Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Gorgeous weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Really beautiful outside. Sunny and 80 degrees. Just took a look at the GFS. No heat at all. Gorgeous weather First time that I ever agreed with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Have not had a 70+ min. here since July 15th... had five of them the first half of July but none since, with the highest being 72... highest for the summer was back on June 18th with a 74 reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Possible T-storms on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 So is this big late summer heat coming or not? It seems like the forecast 90F readings have now been trimmed to low to mid 80s for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 BDCF signal showing up on some of the Operational/Ensemble guidance in the D8-10 range. Something to watch, and something that could suppress extreme heat prospects later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 BDCF signal showing up on some of the Operational/Ensemble guidance in the D8-10 range. Something to watch, and something that could suppress extreme heat prospects later next week. The blocking has been increasing on recent runs so we get troughing and onshore flow stuck underneath. Pretty much the MO of the whole summer where the heat looks good long range but modifies as we get closer. With only 4 days of 90 degree heat at Central Park, we are still behind the 7 of 2009 and 8 of 2003. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/90degdays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 So is this big late summer heat coming or not? It seems like the forecast 90F readings have now been trimmed to low to mid 80s for next week. People have been saying it all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 People have been saying it all summer Yes and it's very much similar to when models see big cold waves in winter only to have them significantly modify as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Higher pressures to our northeast are not good for heat here, but people keep falling for it. They tend to mean increased onshore flow, backdoor cold fronts, and more blocking. We're best with the highest pressures to our west and/or south, when downsloping increases via westerly flow from a very hot "source" to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Def chilly tonight. Might break into the 40's tonight. Currently 52f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 How far below average are we today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 How far below average are we today? Probably be a -7 or -8 as most places made it down to the 50s outside of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Higher pressures to our northeast are not good for heat here, but people keep falling for it. They tend to mean increased onshore flow, backdoor cold fronts, and more blocking. We're best with the highest pressures to our west and/or south, when downsloping increases via westerly flow from a very hot "source" to our west. That's always the biggest red flag for any kind of heat here-whenever there's a trough over the Maritimes and a surface high, that means onshore flow and at best normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Probably be a -7 or -8 as most places made it down to the 50s outside of the city Strongly believe this month will be below average and the entire MET summer as well pending a major heat spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Strongly believe this month will be below average and the entire MET summer as well pending a major heat spell. Where are we up to at the halfway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 65 at lunch in mid august. It feels chilly out side in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 In this pattern, you'll be lucky if you hit 90 during the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 0z GGEM backed off on the heat as well in the medium to longer range. Warmest it gets in NYC is in the short range at 81-82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 This summer is going to be a summer to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 In this pattern, you'll be lucky if you hit 90 during the rest of the month.First time in awhile I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 This summer is going to be a summer to remember. That's the deal with mother nature, you just never know what the weather will produce. Been a weather enthusiast for over 30 years now; this is the coolest summer that I could remember. Wonder what the winter has in store for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 That's the deal with mother nature, you just never know what the weather will produce. Been a weather enthusiast for over 30 years now; this is the coolest summer that I could remember. Wonder what the winter has in store for us! Probably a record warm autumn and boring, warm winter (just because when everyone starts crowing about a cold snowy winter its usually the kiss of death) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Probably a record warm autumn and boring, warm winter (just because when everyone starts crowing about a cold snowy winter its usually the kiss of death) Nah. This summer has been a very similar setup to 2003 which also had a very similar ENSO to what we are experiencing now and what is anticipated as we move into the upcoming fall/winter. If we get the NAO to cooperate a bit and the -EPO persists as it appear it will, an 03-04 type winter would not be far-fetched. 09-10 winter is not far behind the 03-04 analog but I doubt the El Nino episode forecasted for this fall/winter will be as robust as 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I noticed TEB's temperatures have been in line with my backyard the last 2 days. Hopefully that means they fixed whatever issues the temp sensor was having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 58 here this morning struggling thru low 70's currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 58 here this morning struggling thru low 70's currently. That's better than us here in the southern catskills we had a low of 45 and with clouds all morning we are only at 56 now. Ridiculous for mid august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Feels and looks like late September out there. Strato-cu covering the sky, now becoming mostly cloudy. Temp of 71F and breezy. High of only 73 so far. Very cool August day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Summer at its finest. Some random summer pix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Feels and looks like late September out there. Strato-cu covering the sky, now becoming mostly cloudy. Temp of 71F and breezy. High of only 73 so far. Very cool August day. Just returned and looked like I was away 2 months not two days. Cloudy and fall-like. Way too early. Looks like the ridging into the east starts dirty but still looks like a warm 10 days to 2 weeks overall. Some onshore flow towards the 24th but wouldn't rule out some heat thu-sat next week (8/21 - 8/23) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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