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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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Definitely been an amazing day.  Who would have thought that rather meager line of elevated convection that lumbered through Iowa most of the afternoon would take off and become the dominant event after the first complex overturned the BL like it did?  This 2nd line moved into what looked like a much less favorable environment and just flat out dominated.

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Definitely been an amazing day.  Who would have thought that rather meager line of elevated convection that lumbered through Iowa most of the afternoon would take off and become the dominant event after the first complex overturned the BL like it did?  This 2nd line moved into what looked like a much less favorable environment and just flat out dominated.

 

Oh the joys of MCS forecasting.

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Definitely been an amazing day.  Who would have thought that rather meager line of elevated convection that lumbered through Iowa most of the afternoon would take off and become the dominant event after the first complex overturned the BL like it did?  This 2nd line moved into what looked like a much less favorable environment and just flat out dominated.

Who knows, maybe the thing that was needed to really get things going was a slight overturning/mixing of the atmosphere... Regardless, this has morphed into a pretty significant wind and flooding event over IA, IL, and eastern IN (and maybe more areas before sunrise at this rate)...

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Almost unbelievably, IWX just issued their first tornado warning of 2014
 

 

 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1104 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
  STARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1103 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KOUTS...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND 100 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
           LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LA CROSSE AROUND 1110 PM CDT.
  NORTH JUDSON AROUND 1115 PM CDT.
  KNOX AROUND 1125 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SAN PIERRE...LOMAX...ENGLISH
LAKE...BREMS...TOTO...BASS LAKE...WINONA...OBER AND OAK GROVE.

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I don't know if I ever said anything on here about it, but I definitely didn't expect it to take off like it did. At least not along and north of I-80.

I wasn't trying to be snooty about anything... like I said... caught me by surprise too.
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They were but many were thinking the second line couldn't sustain itself... including myself to some extent

 

To be fair, the possibility of the 2nd line blowing up the way it has was questionable at best, given how much the initial line had already worked over the atmosphere. How it typically works if things go the other way as far as the evolution of the 2nd line).

But of course this has been an unusual system.

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To be fair, the possibility of the 2nd line blowing up the way it has was questionable at best, given how much the initial line had already worked over the atmosphere. How it typically works if things go the other way as far as the evolution of the 2nd line).

But of course this has been an unusual system.

And again it's a nice lesson that the atmosphere can still do unexpected things... one we can all learn from, including myself.
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Oh I know, I was just mentioning I definitely didn't see what happened coming.  :guitar:

To be honest, at 8pm this evening, I was expecting I'd be asleep by now instead of watching a bowing MCS storm across Ern IN. Been a lot of crazy and unexpected things this year, and probably more to come at this rate...

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I think we just had a positive cg hit just a short way down the street. Big bright white/purple flash and then half a second later I felt the shockwave. Holy crap.

I continue to be amazed by all of the lightning in either the stratiform (tonight) or anvil (last night).

Sent from my iPhone

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Peru Indiana, 77 with dew point of 77, here at midnight (Eastern). This 100% humid air is just waiting to get fed into the storm.

 

GUS is the high dew champ of Indiana. Questionable maybe, at times.

 

79º/75º at LAF at midnight...but the line looks to be ho hum when it gets here. Further north, a little different.

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IWX is not wasting any time issuing tor warnings now that the line in their CWA, nos. 2 and 3 are up on the bow.

EDIT: I hope Tony didn't sustain any structural damage.

Took a quick look outside. No structural damage I could see. Having cell service issues right now though.

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Look at the little cell clusters forming out ahead of the line around the Plymouth/Rochester areas. Will those have any effect (good or bad) on this or will they get swallowed? Asking out of both curiousity and the fact it's been forever since one of these rolled across this area

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Look at the little cell clusters forming out ahead of the line around the Plymouth/Rochester areas. Will those have any effect (good or bad) on this or will they get swallowed? Asking out of both curiousity and the fact it's been forever since one of these rolled across this area

 

I'd monitor the cells firing up ahead of the line for signs of low-level circulations. They're in a favorable environment just ahead of the derecho with strong inflow. These 'mini-supercells' can often spin up quickly. 

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Looking at radar trends, and the SPC meso page, with good diflucence (sp) at 300mb to 500mb and still some impressive sb cape at this hour we may be looking at a long tracked derecho event, if things can sustain themselves I think northern Ohio could be under the gun.

 

Edit: I should probably include central OH as well.

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