Chicago Storm Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 N IN/SW MI portion of the line still cranking from IWX. 68mph gust at SBN. KSBN 010449Z AUTO 33031G59KT 3/4SM R27L/2400VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ SCT015 BKN023 OVC029 19/18 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 31059/0443 WSHFT 0435 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB33 TSB31 P0028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Line looks like it's trying to bow out. Atmosphere still juiced here on the OH/IN border Definetly, it's pushing into an area that hasn't been touched since mid this morning. If it gets into OH, there wasnt even much of a risk for much at all today/yesterday. Even though there's no jacked up CAPE values like in IA/IL, 1500-2500j/kgs is enough to sustain a nighttime MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Couple solid 50 mph gusts here with the initial push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Couple solid 50 mph gusts here with the initial push. Still calm as can be here on the eastside. Radar seems to be perking up a bit to the west (Oxford down to Williamsport) though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still calm as can be here on the eastside. Radar seems to be perking up a bit to the west (Oxford down to Williamsport) though. That little line sweeping in from the west is interesting. Probably won't be much, but looks a little goofy on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Still calm as can be here on the eastside. Radar seems to be perking up a bit to the west (Oxford down to Williamsport) though. Should be here in a short bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That little line sweeping in from the west is interesting. Probably won't be much, but looks a little goofy on radar... Yeah. I guess we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Lots of little baby cells riding inflow up and into the main squal. Might see the line re-intensify one more time if this continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 MCS maintenance probabilities decrease dramatically east of far western Ohio, FWIW. Someone should pull the the archived values from this evening to see if there was a strong signal for the second line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Yeah. I guess we'll see... Big uptick in lightning out my window to the west in the last couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Should be here in a short bit. Looks interesting up your way. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Big uptick in lightning out my window to the west in the last couple minutes. Seeing the flashes in the distant west here now too. Sorta disappointed the first returns had nothing of the sort. My expectations are low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 New Tornado Warning popped up just west of Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Seeing the flashes in the distant west here now too. Sorta disappointed the first returns had nothing of the sort. My expectations are low though. Yeah, just now getting my first rumbles of thunder for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Nice couplet between North Manchester and South Whitley, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 New WW should be popping up out ahead of this thing for north and western OH, ern lower MI pretty soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 MCS maintenance probabilities decrease dramatically east of far western Ohio, FWIW. Someone should pull the the archived values from this evening to see if there was a strong signal for the second line. The MCS maintenance parameter did a good job of indicating that the second line wouldn't be fizzling anytime soon: It wouldn't surprise me to see that parameter increase a bit across NW Ohio as the 500mb jet streak, and hence better bulk shear, continues to head east. However, the MCS will slowly be moving into slightly weaker instability as it outruns the better pool of instability across central/southern IL/IN, and the RAP suggests the 500mb jet streak will run more SW-NE overnight, meaning it will eventually outrun decent shear, so it will probably fall apart somewhere near the I-75 corridor. We'll see. Edit: I could see this maintaining all the way across southeastern MI where there will be some better shear, but I don't expect it to do much in NW Ohio east of I-75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 This is weird... it's still like soup outside here, and the storm is literally disintegrating to my W before it gets here. I'm wondering if the second line is going to try to build north at all. Right now, it should pass several miles south of here. But it's wild how fast the first line fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Nice couplet between North Manchester and South Whitley, INimage.jpg Just think, 1:32AM eastern and they (should be) hearing sirens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 New WW should be popping up out ahead of this thing for north and western OH, ern lower MI pretty soon... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NE INDIANA...NW OH...SE LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381... VALID 010524Z - 010630Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NE IND...NW OH AND SE LOWER MI. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY TO THE EAST OF WW 381. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 40 TO 45 KT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NW OH AND SE LOWER MI. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS WRN LOWER MI THAT IS ENHANCING LIFT. IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE DETROIT WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES TO THE EAST OF WW 381. FOR THIS REASON...A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT. ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Man the line is just absolutely cranking from Kalamazoo to West of Fort Wayne. This thing should keep going for a while too. Kalamazoo gusted to 66mph KAZO 010527Z AUTO 29018G57KT 1/2SM +TSRA FG SQ BKN006 OVC048 19/18 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 27057/0518 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 TSB19 P0084 T01940178 RVRNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Tons of lightning and thunder finally and solid downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 That watch should pop up at anytime now, as the complex is bearing down on Fort Wayne. Eerie calm here in Columbus Grove, OH with tons of lightning in the distance to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Hope this thing holds together enough for a nice soaker here before it falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Temp is rising here. Air is very uncomfy and muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Warning popped up just west of Indy. That part of the line seems to be strengthening some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 WOUS64 KWNS 010541 WOU2 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC059-091-093-099-115-125-147-161-163-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR WASHTENAW WAYNE OHC003-033-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161- 171-173-175-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/ OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON HANCOCK HENRY HURON LUCAS OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA VAN WERT WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT LCZ422-423-460-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-011200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GRR's warning for Battle Creek, which I have a slight issue with... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI123 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 300 AM EDT* AT 119 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VICKSBURG... AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADO. If you are putting a tornado potential in the warning, then you should warn for a tornado in my opinion, or handle it like IWX with tornado warnings on the mesovortices with severe covering the rest of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 There's the new T-Storm Watch, stretches north to Flint, MI and east to Lorain, OH.. Up until 8am EDT with 50/30 wind probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GRR's warning for Battle Creek, which I have a slight issue with... If you are putting a tornado potential in the warning, then you should warn for a tornado in my opinion, or handle it like IWX with tornado warnings on the mesovortices with severe covering the rest of the line. Yeah, that's not a very good way of doing things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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