stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 6z GFS, taken it's usual routine into account, is a hit. Yes, it's offshore now, but most of us should know how this song and dance goes, especially as we get close in.....if there's still a storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I like the way the GFS looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Miller B, climo, sun angle, cherry blossom dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro ens backed off last night. Too far east and a little later. IMO- the op lies during arctic boundary passage or 2 days after. Progressive flow is near impossible to pinpoint which sw (if any) is in position to pop something. We've been lucky with the last 2 arctic fronts. Got hit both times. Do we go 3 for three? The ironic thing is again it looks like we have a better chance at our latitude than up north. Euro is pretty beastly @ h5 with the pv. Especially for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anyway, can we get this thread back on topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anyway, can we get this thread back on topic? Oh...yeah, that's right. So, warmer then more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Canadian continues to have a different look than the GFS or Euro. The GFS and Euro bring the high pressure system over the upper midwest east, with a northern stream low behind it. The Canadian is much slower to move the high east and brings a system around to the south of it. The end result is very different by hour 168: http://meteocentre.com/models/compar_models.php?map=na〈=en&run=00&stn=PNM&&range=glb&hh=168 I take it this would be the difference between a Miller A and Miller B? The Canadian solution looks like it would be better for snow. It's the outlier compared to the other globals, but Canadian ensembles just picked up a lot more support for this solution. There are now a few big hits in there that were not in yesterday's 12z run, and nearly 50% of the members show some snow for us around March 26th. 00z Canadian ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Cae,unfortunately no model is going to get it right. Little things mean a lot. I'm barely looking at much other than pv placement. Just identifying the window. This is another setup that could provide several storms (not necessarily for the same place). We've seen energy run the boundary twice in a row now. So the front edge of the boundary is op #1. Then we've seen energy amplify and push up as the pv retreats (2/13). The various solutions we are seeing right now show some really wide goalposts. Once we get towards the weekend we can start figuring which is more likely. Right now any model or ensemble spray is probably equally right and wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Cae,unfortunately no model is going to get it right. Little things mean a lot. I'm barely looking at much other than pv placement. Just identifying the window. This is another setup that could provide several storms (not necessarily for the same place). We've seen energy run the boundary twice in a row now. So the front edge of the boundary is op #1. Then we've seen energy amplify and push up as the pv retreats (2/13). The various solutions we are seeing right now show some really wide goalposts. Once we get towards the weekend we can start figuring which is more likely. Right now any model or ensemble spray is probably equally right and wrong. I agree nobody's going to get it right, especially at this range. But I like to take a look at all the models, and I hadn't seen anyone post the latest Canadian run. Definitely a different look than the Euro and GFS runs that people have been talking about, and a pretty good signal on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Gfs? Looks interesting March 25th into 26th... comes at night... but not much else looks intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 There you go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Basically back-to-back Miller-Bs. First one is OTS off the SE coast. 2nd has a nice vort pass for DC-Baltimore through VA. Probably would be good for a couple-few inches of powder verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Basically back-to-back Miller-Bs. First one is OTS off the SE coast. 2nd has a nice vort pass for DC-Baltimore through VA. Probably would be good for a couple-few inches of powder verbatim. Storm-after-the-storm. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Basically back-to-back Miller-Bs. First one is OTS off the SE coast. 2nd has a nice vort pass for DC-Baltimore through VA. Probably would be good for a couple-few inches of powder verbatim. Yeah, then super long range looks like we warm up some... I wouldn't mind one more lil storm to end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yeah, then super long range looks like we warm up some... I wouldn't mind one more lil storm to end winter I'm hesitant to buy into the warmup. I'll be happy if it happens but we're flipping back to a -epo. If past history this season is any indicator, the breakdown on the west coast ridge is probably being rushed. And if it does break down it will probably be short lived. So a nice 4-5 day stretch before another decent cold shot. Probably in early April. All speculative of course but we've seen this transition a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'm hesitant to buy into the warmup. I'll be happy if it happens but we're flipping back to a -epo. If past history this season is any indicator, the breakdown on the west coast ridge is probably being rushed. And if it does break down it will probably be short lived. So a nice 4-5 day stretch before another decent cold shot. Probably in early April. All speculative of course but we've seen this transition a lot this winter. Agree. No reason to go against persistence in the long-range until it's obvious the winter pattern is done. When that happens, we're probably going to flip to an endless Bermuda High/SE Ridge, but not sign of that anytime soon. But the last 10-12 months, the cold air has been winning more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Basically back-to-back Miller-Bs. First one is OTS off the SE coast. 2nd has a nice vort pass for DC-Baltimore through VA. Probably would be good for a couple-few inches of powder verbatim. It's dreamland, but that vort on the 12z GFS at F186 or so is tasty! Convective enhancement for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's dreamland, that that vort on the 12z GFS at F186 or so is tasty! Convective enhancement for sure! closed 522DM h5 ftw... it does look very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd always be cautious in DC in a Miller B type storm like the GFS shows...However, it does stay fairly positively tilted which is good. I imagine if post 192 didn't truncate the QPF amounts would have been a doozy, there were some epic VVs over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lot of agreement on the storm on the GFS ensembles. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd always be cautious in DC in a Miller B type storm like the GFS shows...However, it does stay fairly positively tilted which is good. I imagine if post 192 didn't truncate the QPF amounts would have been a doozy, there were some epic VVs over the area. Thanks man, if you hadn't told us this, we'd be 100% hyped for a Miller B. They're usually epic down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Especially Miller Bs for our area in late March. Money. in. the. Bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd always be cautious in DC in a Miller B type storm like the GFS shows...However, it does stay fairly positively tilted which is good. I imagine if post 192 didn't truncate the QPF amounts would have been a doozy, there were some epic VVs over the area. good point -- miller b's in DC in march: great setup or greatest setup in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thanks man, if you hadn't told us this, we'd be 100% hyped for a Miller B. They're usually epic down here. Haha, well, obviously....I sometimes notice in the LR the GFS is usually too cold ahead of the storm during a Miller B. For example, on the GFS the 700mb low is really close to you guys, and that usually does the warmup trick, but the GFS tends to ignore that in regards to temps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS is kinda wacky. The spacing is too tight and the solution seem unlikely. Nice to see a couple sw's and ok height patterns. Would like to see the second vort dig deeper and just have a clipper on steroids pass through southern va. We're going to see every possible solution come up over the next 4-5 days. I'm just going to hug the snowiest and move on. Worked last time. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS would give DC about 20mm qpf of snow verbatim, according to meteocentre. GFS and GGEM are converging, but GGEM has the first low to our south and the second to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 There is really no foreseeable end to this pattern in the long range through at least 240. Over the longer haul we could really be in for an active severe weather season. That would be epic. Still would argue that we need an evening or overnight snowfall with it getting into late March to really see widespread snow, but DCA has had a decent winter compared to the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS is kinda wacky. The spacing is too tight and the solution seem unlikely. Nice to see a couple sw's and ok height patterns. Would like to see the second vort dig deeper and just have a clipper on steroids pass through southern va. We're going to see every possible solution come up over the next 4-5 days. I'm just going to hug the snowiest and move on. Worked last time. LOL 204hr vort is pretty dynamic with coastal development at the end. Upper low of that magnitude would be super cold at least aloft. Not saying it can't happen but it looks somewhat anamolous. As said a southern track not as progressive would be great for us, so long as cold air source remains in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That would be epic. Still would argue that we need an evening or overnight snowfall with it getting into late March to really see widespread snow, but DCA has had a decent winter compared to the last two. Absolutely need the overnight snow, CAD setup and rates...considering how absolutely whacky this winter has been I wouldn't be surprised to see another shot. Definitely signals for something next week as pointed out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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