EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup here we go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yup here we go.. Let's do this! After epic fail in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hey I want the yellows. What the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Over in the Philly thread they say the GGEM is a bit hit like last night's 0Z. Zak? Anyone else can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Over in the Philly thread they say the GGEM is a bit hit like last night's 0Z. Zak? Anyone else can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well, the game has changed quite a bit... Anyone have UK data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm not going to get sucked into this one until 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well, the game has changed quite a bit... Anyone have UK data? No, that model won't be usual till tomorrow night. precip panels only to 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 No, that model won't be usual till tomorrow night. precip panels only to 72hrs. I did see the hr72 panel in the MA thread, had a 1002 on the TN/(MS or AL can't remember which) border with a solid H5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Man... come on one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro is solid. Not if you're north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Going to be a dogfight for AVP's record low...currently 12, got to get to 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro is solid. you should be more specific. This sub forum covers from md to ny so there are some reading this that the euro is definitely not solid for. We all tend to focus on our yard but make sure the post isn't misleading to other parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 LOL guys its either going to be a massive hit or a storm for NC by tmrw anyway.Models have been too horrendous for excitement. No they haven't. They've successfully indicated that somebody in the region is getting a storm. That's all we can reasonably expect 3+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 you should be more specific. This sub forum covers from md to ny so there are some reading this that the euro is definitely not solid for. We all tend to focus on our yard but make sure the post isn't misleading to other parts of the area. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I said yesterday I expected either a full phase or a very suppressed system and guidance trended towards a more phased amped system. I still think the globals aren't fully there yet. The nam might be on to something here. 6z rgem looks amped up too. I just hope it's not a case of be careful what you wish for as the nam introduces mixing all the way into my area. It may be a little overdone but I do think rain is a bigger risk then suppression, especially for the southern third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 6z GFS and NAM looking good. Hopefully more model consensus today towards a more phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I said yesterday I expected either a full phase or a very suppressed system and guidance trended towards a more phased amped system. I still think the globals aren't fully there yet. The nam might be on to something here. 6z rgem looks amped up too. I just hope it's not a case of be careful what you wish for as the nam introduces mixing all the way into my area. It may be a little overdone but I do think rain is a bigger risk then suppression, especially for the southern third. This is what I am thinking as well... I want to see what temperatures are on Sunday before the cloud cover moves in. This time of year we don't see temperatures fall as easily with cloud cover moving in after some daytime heating. If we get sunshine early on Sunday before the clouds roll in and temps climb into 30s/40s we may stay close to those numbers heading into overnight hours and then p-type issues come into play. At this range, the models often assume temperatures will fall no matter what during overnight hours and are not always right. NAM does this often with cloud cover moving in and ends up busting low. Now there doesn't appear to be the level of warm air advection as we are seeing this morning, but even 0z NAM had last night's temperatures fall enough despite the increasing clouds and southerly flow developing that 12z temps are between 5-10 degrees off (warmer than modeled) for several locations in central and eastern PA. Also, in mid March you have to be careful looking at 850mb temps and trying to predict surface temperatures. We can see 850mb temps in the -4 to -8 C range and have surface temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. On the other hand, new snow cover to our north may help to pull a little bit colder air south to help produce a late season snowstorm, but I do think as of this morning that temperatures will be closer to borderline than models currently are indicating and will be critical to keep an eye on. Unlike what we were discussing last week for this week, I don't see anything yet that would make this event look unlikely, but does not look like a lock by any means either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Great write up djr! Also, we need a nice rate and amped solution, light to mod precip. has trouble getting it done this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Great write up djr! Also, we need a nice rate and amped solution, light to mod precip. has trouble getting it done this time of the year. If you have 850 mb temperatures below zero (and no warm layer aloft), solid cloud cover and decent CAD, you can get light snowfall to accumulate. There's really no reason why it wouldn't; the atmosphere would be very stable (therefore difficult to mix) and there would be limited solar radiation. Of course, even in January, light snowfall will not accumulate as quickly or efficiently as moderate or heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When was the last time we had a significant mid-March snowstorm in the LSV? The last one I remember was 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I said yesterday I expected either a full phase or a very suppressed system and guidance trended towards a more phased amped system. I still think the globals aren't fully there yet. The nam might be on to something here. 6z rgem looks amped up too. I just hope it's not a case of be careful what you wish for as the nam introduces mixing all the way into my area. It may be a little overdone but I do think rain is a bigger risk then suppression, especially for the southern third. This can't possibly be right, I was told yesterday that this was a southen PA special. At any rate, much uncertainty remains, and I have my bar set at zero and will hope to get lucky. I completely agree with you about this not being suppressed by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When was the last time we had a significant mid-March snowstorm in the LSV? The last one I remember was 2007. March 16th, got 10" in about 5 hours. Heavy snow from 8am to noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When was the last time we had a significant mid-March snowstorm in the LSV? The last one I remember was 2007. March 16th, got 10" in about 5 hours. Heavy snow from 8am to noon. i really enjoyed the snowfall that day.It was a Friday, It flat out dumped. I recorded 9.5".. if i remember, Saturday warmed up and a lot of that snow melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 i really enjoyed the snowfall that day.It was a Friday, It flat out dumped. I recorded 9.5".. if i remember, Saturday warmed up and a lot of that snow melted. It also accumulated on all surfaces. I was in York city that day in meetings and we headed back to Lancaster at noon. Rt. #30 was ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm not buying this until all the models have it. ECM shearing it out still keeps me weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This can't possibly be right, I was told yesterday that this was a southen PA special. At any rate, much uncertainty remains, and I have my bar set at zero and will hope to get lucky. I completely agree with you about this not being suppressed by the way. I doubt any expert said it was a southern pa special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I know of an HR director that today emailed out the Canadian map S&S posted warning of Monday delays. Kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I doubt any expert said it was a southern pa special. This would be correct. Anxiously awaiting the sun here. Temps are still mired in the mid 30s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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