Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 By the way, Horst used the word "chance" yesterday for snow prospects here. This morning he replaced "chance" with "likely"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we are about to be Nam'd again. Now the hope is not too much of a bomb that brings too much warm air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we are about to be Nam'd again. Now the hope is not too much of a bomb that brings too much warm air with it. Nam'd lol. Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we are about to be Nam'd again. Now the hope is not too much of a bomb that brings too much warm air with it. Meh, its still out of range and almost certainly overdoing QPF, wouldn't put much stock in it but it did tick south a bit. Trends on the GFS will be more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nam'd lol. Yes sir. Good 12 plus on this run. We shall see once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z NAM should instill worry into the UNV-IPT crowd. PV is more suppressive and cutting off the good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Meh, its still out of range, wouldn't put much stock in it but it did tick south a bit. Trends on the GFS will be more important. agreed. this is what the model shows but what is reality who knows. Since yesterday we are seeing good trends of a more consolidated system as opposed to it being weaker strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Superstorm posted this in the NYC forum, look how wrapped up this is on the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Superstorm posted this in the NYC forum, look how wrapped up this is on the NAM: seeing that closed off and pos tilted is not something weve seen much of this year. hope it keeps the warm advection at bay. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reading the MA forum for the storm is entertaining. Everyone is fighting and bickering at each other after one run of the NAM in its long range...seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some really solid, grounded posts from Jm in the NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reading the MA forum for the storm is entertaining. Everyone is fighting and bickering at each other after one run of the NAM in its long range...seriously? That's every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks horrible...once again 12z Friday runs are proving to be a death knell. Fading fast especially north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks horrible...once again 12z Friday runs are proving to be a death knell. Fading fast especially north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks horrible...once again 12z Friday runs are proving to be a death knell. Fading fast especially north of 80. On the bright side, the weaker and farther south the closed 500 mb low goes, the warmer it gets Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well that's a bright side!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 UK is south, GGEM is south...stick a fork in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Warming up nicely imby... Could be a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM South, UKMET South, GFS South. Not good. But I am done with snow an want SPRING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM is a complete miss to the south. lol. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 UK is south, GGEM is south...stick a fork in it! Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM South, UKMET South, GFS South. Not good. But I am done with snow an want SPRING UKMET is not south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Mets, pros, whoever - when was the last time UNV had a March with 0 snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z NAM should instill worry into the UNV-IPT crowd. PV is more suppressive and cutting off the good precip. difference between the last few nam runs the sref and the 12z nam isn't the pv its the 12z nam leaves most of the h5 energy behind and has the waa wave outrun the upper support. It's overdoing that. Without a better phase the waa alone is unlikely to give us 10" like the nam shows. The previous nam and sref phase more of the h5 in and this a more amped consolidated storm. 12z nam trended towards the gfs is a split scenario. I don't see the pv as the problem if this phases and doesn't leave the h5 low behind in the south it will crush central pa no problem. Confluence from the pv doesn't become an issue until near the ny border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm sticking with my bet MDT doesn't see 2" snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 UKMET is not south.. Yes it is. Unless I'm seeing it wrong it's a complete miss from 80 north and only light precip north of the turnpike. Only the extreme southern tier of pa gets anything significant on ukmet. 70% of the posters in here would be left out. It's also way south of previous runs and trend is important. Remember most if the people in here do not live right on the md border so when you say it's not south people in central and northern pa get the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Mets, pros, whoever - when was the last time UNV had a March with 0 snow? March 2012 had just a trace I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Since past runs of the UKMET never went out far enough to show if it was a hit or not, you can't say it is south of anything. the UKMET goes out to 144 hours just not with precip, but you can definitely tell from the SLP and H5 what the model is implying..precip is one of the least accurate model projections anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the UKMET goes out to 144 hours just not with precip, but you can definitely tell from the SLP and H5 what the model is implying..precip is one of the least accurate model projections anyways. I disagree, but whatever. For people complaining they want warm and spring, not sure why they are complaining about not getting snow. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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