Yorkpa25 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Placing this here so we can laugh about it later. That's absolutely terrible. How models can be light years apart this close to gametime is beyond me. WOW, even though it's the nam that horrendous. Sorry piece of guidance. Just do away with it. Good entertainment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol what a garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's absolutely terrible. How models can be light years apart this close to gametime is beyond me. WOW, even though it's the nam that horrendous. Sorry piece of guidance. Just do away with it. Good entertainment though. Lol it's NAM vs. all. 0z it'll flip completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Placing this here so we can laugh about it later. This model in the LR is laughable. The last run featured a 2 contour closed 500mb low that virtually pumped warm air so far north if made it all slop to MD line. Now it has 16 inches of snow up to Harrisburg. One things for sure is there's a really good chance for a storm. I haven't too much time to look because I just got home for spring break, but I've noticed the NAM's wild swings and that makes me edgy to trust it. Hopefully we can get some sort of consensus by tomorrow morning. I do like the region of Rt 30 south for the storm at this stage of the game. We'll see if it changes, but that has been the status quo this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Lol what a garbage model. it is pretty bad but I'm not totally sold on the suppressed idea yet. I'm leaning that way for sure now but I've seen models do this before then shift more amped at the last 48 hours. I've also seen the nam score a few coups but its so rare and the model so unpredictable it's almost useless. It has such problems with convective feedback and then goes off in the wrong direction so often and over amps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The supporting cast of baby NAMs (SREF) are just about as ridiculous as the actual NAM, although as WPC noted in their disco there had been a sizable reduction in amounts from the 09z run. GFS and Euro ensemble means generally agree well with their ops today. THE 15Z SREF HAS ALREADYMADE A MAJOR REDUCTION IN QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS INSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA FROM ITS 09Z RUN. This strikes me as familiar to the fiasco we had at the beginning of the month, with a southern stream shortwave coming out and having limited ability to phase/amplify in the face of the pressing PV. Hopefully things come back north but even if they do this looks to continue the UNV/I-80 gang being perennially being on the razor edge of the QPF gradient at best. We'll see.. we all saw how well these models did with March 1st in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0z last chance baby! GFS was interesting at least at the uppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The supporting cast of baby NAMs (SREF) are just about as ridiculous as the actual NAM, although as WPC noted in their disco there had been a sizable reduction in amounts from the 09z run. GFS and Euro ensemble means generally agree well with their ops today. This strikes me as familiar to the fiasco we had at the beginning of the month, with a southern stream shortwave coming out and having limited ability to phase/amplify in the face of the pressing PV. Hopefully things come back north but even if they do this looks to continue the UNV/I-80 gang being perennially being on the razor edge of the QPF gradient at best. We'll see.. we all saw how well these models did with March 1st in the short term. Hmm they still issued this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Last couple of storms kinda been like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Girl at the bank today was chatty and all worried about the possibility of snow. She asked me if I ever heard of S & S because they were posting lots of stuff about the storm coming ."I follow S &S, don't you?". I had been talkative until then, and just replied "yeah I'm not into them, they suck". She didn't say anything else to me. Le sigh. Anybody else excited for 0z but annoyed they are all an hour later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Girl at the bank today was chatty and all worried about the possibility of snow. She asked me if I ever heard of S & S because they were posting lots of stuff about the storm coming ."I follow S &S, don't you?". I had been talkative until then, and just replied "yeah I'm not into them, they suck". She didn't say anything else to me. Le sigh. Anybody else excited for 0z but annoyed they are all an hour later? I can't believe they have over 54,000 people following them on facebook..thats more than the actual population of York (Of course DT has over 94k followers). If they were really into severe weather they'd use some of that paypal funding they get from all those people to build a new doppler radar so we'd have better Sus Valley severe tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I can't believe they have over 54,000 people following them on facebook..thats more than the actual population of York (Of course DT has over 94k followers). If they were really into severe weather they'd use some of that paypal funding they get from all those people to build a new doppler radar so we'd have better Sus Valley severe tracking. I had someone today ask me if we were getting 12" or more cause they seen the stupid wxbell map they posted. I am so sick of those fools. We all should report their page for a scam and maybe fb will take them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I don't know where my barber heard it, but she told me we were getting 8 inches. I told her that its going south and theres no way we see that much. Where do these people hear/see these things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM tells us all what a horrible model it is, and for the last person out to switch off the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM tells us all what a horrible model it is, and for the last person out to switch off the lights. What?? It's a great model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I still wouldn't give up for southern tier folks, but north of Harrisburg, just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM @ 60 hours is a Mason Dixon line and south special. Hammers Northern VA, MD, DE, and South Jersey. North of the turnpike is shut out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 And it's still correcting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 And it's still correcting south. Could be in ballpark now. SREFS match up pretty well and not too far off from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is our average high at 50 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think over the southern tier. Also cannot wait until we wake up and it's 35 out, and eventually we're talking about Day 2 slight risks instead of day 9 possible record cold and snow on the EURO lol. Let's hope models hold onto solutions better next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Desktop_1.gif Another outstanding job by our tax$-funded models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Desktop_1.gif What trash. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'd be happy if the NAM's run was reality. 7-8 inches would be great. But this will continue to drift south. De Ja Vu from 2 weeks ago. Cut the NAM's total in half and divide by 3 and that's likely going to be the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Question for the mets...how could the models for two runs show the northern solution then lose it so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wait until tomorrow 12z runs to throw in the towel, but really think this isn't finished moving south. If it's done with the south trend southern pa will prob be okay, actual storm always seems to extend a little farther north then what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Meteorlogically why do you see this pushing further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well that was entertaining for a little. Back to regular programming. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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