rickrd Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you wanna use the NOGAPS rule it would argue alot more for the 06Z GFS solution than the 12Z...the 12Z NavGEM is basically a bit north of the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I feel like Long Island will be 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is way south. The 0.75"+ contour went from just south of Albany at 06z to HPN at 12z. You can't make this up. They actually appear slightly north of the Op though...the 06z was very possibly a burp...cannot say for certain though as there are conflicting signals for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is a little disconcerting though that the GFS had been rock steady for like a dozen runs.... until today 12z. I see your concern but its not like it threw out a completely different solution - it depicted a less expansive precip shield and yes did shift about 50-75 miles south - but it can just as likely shift back north a tick or south a tick on the next run -- the GFS has been remarkably consistent, we're just gonna notice the cutoffs a lot more as we get closer to the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That the RGEM, not the GGEM thats been good, the GGEM has been good some storms, bad on others okay. thank you. that very thought occurred me after i made the post. thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not going to be a direct translation of this low from CA to NY, but it's a piece of the puzzle and it sure looks nice at the moment. Edit: "nice" in the sense that it's visually appealing on the sunrise visible satellite images. The TC junkie in me says it's a convection-starved naked llc that needs to be shunned. Haha was thinking the same thing. Looks like a decaying Hurricane that is now a "tropical storm" once is gets into the colder waters of the Pacific. The NHC would probably keep it at a 45 mph TS even though we know it's a void of convection swirl of cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Haha was thinking the same thing. Looks like a decaying Hurricane that is now a "tropical storm" once is gets into the colder waters of the Pacific. The NHC would probably keep it at a 45 mph TS even though we know it's a void of convection swirl of cirrus We all better give that swirl a hug as it's responsible for what we'll see on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If not already mentioned, the GFSx went from 12-14" to just 6"in NYC between the 0Z and the 12Z run just released. The difference is all in the Tues. amt., which dropped to 0" from 8"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We all better give that swirl a hug as it's responsible for what we'll see on Monday. It's a joke as we are comparing it to a tropical cyclone dying in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS is wetter than 12z GFS. .75-1.00" from about HPN southward,The 6z GEFS was wetter. But also warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM Bufkit: Warm layer from 720 mb-900 mb that gradually gets eaten away by Monday morning. However almost all of the precipitation is freezing rain (.47) and sleet (.56). PHL From a NWS employee in Mt. Holly office. Does the GFS show the same thing anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS is wetter than 12z GFS. .75-1.00 from about HPN southward. The 6z GEFS was wetter. But also warmer.This is extremely good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS is wetter than 12z GFS. .75-1.00 from about HPN southward. The 6z GEFS was wetter. But also warmer. What you didn't mention was how far south the mean shifted the 0.75"+ contour. Only about 150 miles or so, ya know, nothing major or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It is really the very far northern areas , i guess up by rt 84 will have a sharp cutoff. The rest of the city and south still will have a healthy 8-12 inch plus snowfall including Central and north jersey. The GFS has been very consistent for about 14 runs now of around .8-1.00 liquid equiv and cold profiles as well from Phl to RT 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The panic in here over one GFS run is comical. The GGEM ( most south model just jumped a good but north ) should've helped calm some of you down. The EURO is literally going to hold weenies dreams in the balance to say the absolute least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From a NWS employee in Mt. Holly office. Does the GFS show the same thing anyone? They should seriously consider just making the NAM and all versions of it no longer than 48 hrs. It truly is a terrible, terrible model (even when it shows 30"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The panic in here over one GFS run is comical. The GGEM ( most south model just jumped a good but north ) should've helped calm some of you down. The EURO is literally going to hold weenies dreams in the balance to say the absolute leastI just disagree. We are within 72 hours or less. 50-150 mile shifts are extremely disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 What you didn't mention was how far south the mean shifted the 0.75"+ contour. Only about 150 miles or so, ya know, nothing major or anything. Yanksfan you should know better compare all three runs of the 00z-06z-12z and you can see they had some good fluctuation and 12z being the most drastic which is why im not really putting much stock into it until i see the 12z EURO and its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS snow maps have 12"+ from Sussex to just North of AC. Pure NJ/NYC special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS snow maps have 12"+ from Sussex to just North of AC. Pure NJ/NYC special... LI gets in on that 12"+ as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What you didn't mention was how far south the mean shifted the 0.75"+ contour. Only about 150 miles or so, ya know, nothing major or anything. Because 6z GEFS had thermal gradient farther north. NYC/NNJ would of seen alot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They should seriously consider just making the NAM and all versions of it no longer than 48 hrs. It truly is a terrible, terrible model (even when it shows 30"+) Especially when it shows 30"+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Haha was thinking the same thing. Looks like a decaying Hurricane that is now a "tropical storm" once is gets into the colder waters of the Pacific. The NHC would probably keep it at a 45 mph TS even though we know it's a void of convection swirl of cirrus ...HAVE MAINTAINED INTENSITY FOR ONE MORE CYCLE IN CASE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OCCURS... On-topic, I don't know if you folks have seen it, but Phil from CapeCodWeather posted a nice technical discussion on his blog. It's written from a SNE perspective obviously, but the synoptics apply regionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS snow maps have 12"+ from Sussex to just North of AC. Pure NJ/NYC special... Exactly. I still would not want to be south of philly for fear of mixing or north of the nj/NY border for fear of suppression. LI/NYC and nj from I80 south to I-195 seem to have the most wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yanksfan you should know better compare all three runs of the 00z-06z-12z and you can see they had some good fluctuation and 12z being the most drastic which is why im not really putting much stock into it until i see the 12z EURO and its ensembles 150 mile shift south on one run of an ensemble mean inside of 84 hour shouldn't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I just disagree. We are within 72 hours or less. 50-150 mile shifts are extremely disconcerting. I am going to say this one last time and then focus on my other forum where there is far less banter that is not backed up via meteorological knowledge: The piece. Of energy. In question. Has not yet reached the West Coast of the United States. THEREFORE, sampling of this energy cannot fully take place within the models until tonight's 00z. A shift within one GFS run truly cannot displace everyone's belief in the storm nor discount the previous runs. PLEASE keep posts within the realm of meteorologically, backed-up ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Because 6z GEFS had thermal gradient farther north. NYC/NNJ would of seen alot of sleet. Not sure why you're looking at GEFS ensemble members for temperature profiles. Use the mean for a general idea of where the heaviest QPF axis is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd be more worried if the Euro looked like the GGEM than a shift north or south. GGEM is horrid for all, 2-4 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure why you're looking at GEFS ensemble members for temperature profiles. Use the mean for a general idea of where the heaviest QPF axis is. I'm looking at the mean. The heaviest precip is going to be along and north thermal gradient. Where it's colder and drier will also be offset by higher snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS is wetter than 12z GFS. .75-1.00" from about HPN southward,The 6z GEFS was wetter. But also warmer. Be careful. In a tight qpf gradient storm, which is possible, an ensemble mean isn't the best thing to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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