IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you ignore the NAM temperature profiles and take the simulated radar verbatim on the 4k version of the NAM we should see a 3-5 hour period of light accumulating snows, especially NW of NYC during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 RGEM Pytype at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 RGEM Pytype at 48 hours That extrapolated would likely end up looking like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 BTW the 00z EPS Control run was 6-12" from Cape May, NJ to Middletown, NY. And for those keeping score at home, it hits the area pretty hard next Friday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 BTW the 00z EPS Control run was 6-12" from Cape May, NJ to Middletown, NY. And for those keeping score at home, it hits the area pretty hard next Friday as well. Last part of your phrase took my breath away _ never thought id say that to a guy! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GFS initialized with the southern stream storm just approaching the coastline of California so things are probably still not going to be as fully sampled as they will be by the 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Around 20 or so ECMWF ensemble members last night gave KLGA 6" or more of snow by hour 120. 9 members nailed the area next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Forget snow amounts I cant wait to see the politics between the National Weather Service, Private Mets, the NYCOE and the de blasio administration if by Sunday it looks like to 6-10 inches with cold, cold temperatures and heavy snow for Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pv looks a bit stronger to me then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS might come the ever so slightest tick north this run. The height fields a long the coast are just a tick higher as compared to the 06z run through hour 48. You can really see though how the PV begins pressing down at hour 42. People should not be worried about rain in this setup unless something changes dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Forget snow amounts I cant wait to see the politics between the National Weather Service, Private Mets, the NYCOE and the de blasio administration if by Sunday it looks like to 6-10 inches with cold, cold temperatures and heavy snow for Monday morning. My advice to any of the kiddies around here would be to do your homework for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I didn't really take the time to study the 06z GFS but the southern stream wave is looking amped up again. Good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS might come the ever so slightest tick north this run. The height fields a long the coast are just a tick higher as compared to the 06z run through hour 48. You can really see though how the PV begins pressing down at hour 42. People should not be worried about rain in this setup unless something changes dramatically. they're actually flatter @ 51. look @ the strung out energy over the upper mid west compressing the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS might come the ever so slightest tick north this run. The height fields a long the coast are just a tick higher as compared to the 06z run through hour 48. You can really see though how the PV begins pressing down at hour 42. People should not be worried about rain in this setup unless something changes dramatically. I agree, I don't think rain is a problem for anyone north of maybe ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Light snow in the area at hour 57. This run is coming in slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just went back and looked at the 06z GFS for comparison, the southern vort may be just a bit weaker this run, but it's not obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see this going any further north then 06z. Gradient is further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yep, colder and lt snow breaking out Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 they're actually flatter @ 51. look @ the strung out energy over the upper mid west compressing the flow. I was looking at the coast specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS might come the ever so slightest tick north this run. The height fields a long the coast are just a tick higher as compared to the 06z run through hour 48. You can really see though how the PV begins pressing down at hour 42. People should not be worried about rain in this setup unless something changes dramatically. I don't see the same thing. The heights will go down as the pv presses down on the flow. It looks like it will come south from 06z. It actually looks a little like the Nam which had the first warm wave and then a colder second wave of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see this going any further north then 06z. Gradient is further south Agree. This is going to come in further south than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My advice to any of the kiddies around here would be to do your homework for Monday. if schools are open monday..only half the kids will bother to show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I don't see this going any further north then 06z. Gradient is further south Good sign-hopefully the northern trend is stopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Take the GFS temperature profiles and the NAM QPF profiles and you have steady snow for most of the area by Sunday afternoon, albeit on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 63 540 line to Phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is going to be another solid and consistent run folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 63 540 line to Phl. Beat me to it. No worries of ANY mixing in the tri state at all this run. Noticably colder than 6z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah this run is going to end up a bit south of previous GFS runs with the steadiest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wow tight gradient at hour 69. This is really further south than the 6z. SNE is a whiff so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hr 69 snow from Bwi north. Def a jog south. Great to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.