DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Its pretty bad that the models are doing this. The EURO was first too warm + north, now its far south. Everyone thinks a foot is coming here, preparing etc. Just two runs ago, the 6z supported this, but the 12z doesnt. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is the third event in a row upton will bust horribly on the high end of their snowfall maps as close to 24 hours away. Why do they keep on shooting so high?! Like I said yesterday when they throw out a big forecast you can almost bet it won't happen. Almost all our big storms they will last to the party on big snowfall forecastI hate to question nws, but the contrast between them and BOX on every storm has been noticeable. They were almost never in agreement on their snowfall ranges this year on the cwa transition line where I live, with upton almost always a 2" range higher than BOX. Also relevant to say that BOX nailed it this year in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All the people in the stores are going crazy over this snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All the people in the stores are going crazy over this snowfall. There in for a big surprise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well they cant be blame. Watches are up for nyc ..4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Please keep nws bashing in the banter thread. Thank you It's not bashing, it's stating the fact about this storm that they forecasted too much snow and their map still says 6" for my area when I don't expect more than flurries. What if someone that doesn't know about the weather like we do goes and looks at it like my dad who just called and said we are getting 6"! No we are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I hate to question nws, but the contrast between them and BOX on every storm has been noticeable. They were almost never in agreement on their snowfall ranges this year on the cwa transition line where I live, with upton almost always a 2" range higher than BOX. Also relevant to say that BOX nailed it this year in my hood.[/quote Agree totally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All the people in the stores are going crazy over this snowfall. Media hyped this early on as a big one and people don't check back in to notice that we're not getting a foot anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well they cant be blame. Watches are up for nyc ..4-8 inches.I don't think they do anything with the WSW for the afternoon update. We're still 24+ hours away, so they have time. The watch is up and it's a watch for a reason, and not a warning. A watch does not automatically mean a warning is coming, but they have some breathing room with the watch.Edit: sorry if that's a little illiterate ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Higher resolution or not...if DCA & Baltimore are both projected to receive 0.7 inches of precip in a given span by a specific model...it does not make sense that a QPF chart for that same model during that same period would have them in a 1.00 inch zone... Maybe they are not processing the data correctly. I know that the 2m t's are way off on the wxbell maps when there is snowcover around NYC and Nassau. I have also seen the wunderground maps have this error. It could also have something to do with the resolution change, but I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Media hyped this early on as a big one and people don't check back in to notice that we're not getting a foot anymore Exactly that's why the NWS needs to put up accurate maps, do you know how many ordinary people not like us look at them? They see 6-10" and tell everyone and run to the store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is the third event in a row upton will bust horribly on the high end of their snowfall maps as close to 24 hours away. Why do they keep on shooting so high?! Like I said yesterday when they throw out a big forecast you can almost bet it won't happen. Almost all our big storms they will last to the party on big snowfall forecast I disagree. They can still update until tomorrow morning with their forecast. Slowly back out this afternoon of the big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All the people in the stores are going crazy over this snowfall. Media has been all over this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Media has been all over this storm.Plus it's a Saturday so it's a heavy shopping day anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 15z SREF mean is well south of 9z, the .5 line just gets to NYC on this run and it was well north and west at 9z. SREFs look pretty similar to the rest of the guidance now from the maps I can see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 15z SREF mean is well south of 9z, the .5 line just gets to NYC on this run and it was well north and west at 9z. SREFs look pretty similar to the rest of the guidance now from the maps I can see so far. Still close to .7 for MC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't see Upton keeping the watch up!! They will probably take it down with the afternoon update. They will probably cut snowfall map in half also!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I disagree. They can still update until tomorrow morning with their forecast. Slowly back out this afternoon of the big numbers. If they know things have changed why should they "slowly" back out of their current big numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't see Upton keeping the watch up!! They will probably take it down with the afternoon update. They will probably cut snowfall map in half also!! Of course they will keep the watch up, and you will still see warnings go up for much of the area. Geez...the suicide weenies are everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys , I don`t get the attacks on Upton ,are these guys fortune tellers ? The models supported them for the last 5 days , all of you were in awe of the GFS printing out a foot of snow from philly to nyc all week . Do you guys forget how the GFS didn't move for a week . And up until 0z last nite the UKIE and Euro were still .07 Now all of a sudden these guys %^& . I think some of you guys need to relax , their maps were right based on the guidance . When they are certain that the .7 line doesn't move from Colts neck to NYC then they will fix . And unless any of you are 100 perc sure that this cant wiggle 30 MILES , how about you cut the guys a break . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They nevrr should have put up those big numbers....absurdity was them hugging a single 6z gfs run as a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They nevrr should have put up those big numbers....absurdity was them hugging a single 6z gfs run as a trend If by "a single 6z gfs run" you mean 5 days worth of gfs and other other model runs, then you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys , I don`t get the attacks on Upton ,are these guys fortune tellers ? The models supported them for the last 5 days , all of you were in awe of the GFS printing out a foot of snow from philly to nyc all week . Do you guys forget how the GFS didn't move for a week . And up until 0z last nite the UKIE and Euro were still .07 Now all of a sudden these guys %^& . I think some of you guys need to relax , their maps were right based on the guidance . When they are certain that the .7 line doesn't move from Colts neck to NYC then they will fix . And unless any of you are 100 perc sure that this cant wiggle 30 MILES , how about you cut the guys a break . It blows my mind that people are completely dismissing the possibility of a 20-30 mile shift. Those cut off lines are not set in stone, and they never will be regardless of how much forecasting and model guidance you follow. You will only know when the storm is right over your roof. Surprising the reactions here, given the madness that this winter has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No the trend started yesterday south...continuing with last nights euro but they dismissed all of the trends for that one 6z gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is almost comical to read all of these posts. Guys, don't jump ship yet... the important part of this storm is not even inland in California yet. One of the most accurate forecasting tools I use has trended northwest with the axis and shield of the precipitation as well as increasing precipitation amounts. I expect this trend to continue, especially once the main piece of energy responsible for creating this storm comes on land. I think what you are seeing now is an imbalance in the scales, as the models are getting fantastic information from the one piece of energy inland and are getting rather poor data from the piece still out over the ocean. The scales were of course balanced when they were BOTH out over the ocean. Just a thought. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREF's are comfortably 0.50" plus for NYC. All in all verbatim it would make a lot of us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No the trend started yesterday south...continuing with last nights euro but they dismissed all of the trends for that one 6z gfs run 6z NAM was north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is almost comical to read all of these posts. Guys, don't jump ship yet... the important part of this storm is not even inland in California yet. One of the most accurate forecasting tools I use has trended northwest with the axis and shield of the precipitation as well as increasing precipitation amounts. I expect this trend to continue, especially once the main piece of energy responsible for creating this storm comes on land. I think what you are seeing now is an imbalance in the scales, as the models are getting fantastic information from the one piece of energy inland and are getting rather poor data from the piece still out over the ocean. The scales were of course balanced when they were BOTH out over the ocean. Just a thought. Let's see what happens. What is this magical tool you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6z NAM was north too Both the 06Z NAM and 06z GFS were north for some reason, often when you see both do that its a trend but it was not in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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