IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well, you did make two posts within 7 minutes of each other (both based on your interpretation of the ECMWF)...one saying "this is borderline for DC"...and a second saying "1.00+ (liquid equivalent, i.e. 10 inches of snow approx.) for DC area"... The final QPF output numbers are generous when you consider the intensity of the QPF in each of the hourly panels. DC is right on the edge of 10-12 and 8-10". The QPF max is in a narrow band right over that area and points just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Let's not all argue ! Unless something changes drastically.....we're in for 3-4" or so maybe 5 in southern sections of our area. Not a bad storm so let's enjoy it. As long as we don't expect anywhere near 8-12", it won't disappoint. Models have been trending against us several runs in a row and have reached a consensus across the board Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 borderline, DC gets almost 1.5qpf? Who told you DC almost gets 1.5+? They are barely 1"+. The 1.25"+ is to the NW of DC proper and the 0.75"+ is just southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The final QPF output numbers are generous when you consider the intensity of the QPF in each of the hourly panels. DC is right on the edge of 10-12 and 8-10". The QPF max is in a narrow band right over that area and points just to the north. The max is south of DC now ..yanks are you ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 One more major shift south and we'll see nothing and VA will get the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Who told you DC almost gets 1.5+? They are barely 1"+. The 1.25"+ is to the NW of DC proper and the 0.75"+ is just southeast. DC's QPF total is 1.6 or so. Not all snow. We have a bullseye of 2.0 just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Take 3-6 and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hopefully Patrick Rocky is paying close attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Excellent analysis, just post it in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The max is south of DC now ..yanks are you ok? The max is southwest of DC. People need to know geography. For example coastal VA is much less than western VA. Barely 0.25-0.50 for Newport News while Roanoake is over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Can this PV still relax..before the storm..and not pushed so far south..still?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The max is south of DC now ..yanks are you ok? i just ignore his posts, its easier than debating the validity (or lack there of) of his posts.. not sure why people in the nyc metro are acting so childish just because their missing out on one storm.. get over it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/1 12z Summary ( NYC - 5 boroughs / NE-NJ, CNJ) SREF: 0.70 - 0.80 / 4 - 8 inches of snow NAM: 0.60 - 0.85 / 4 - 8 inches of snow GFS: 0.40 - 0.75 / 4 - 10 inches of snow GEFS: 0.50 - 0.70 / 4 - 8 inches of snow UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 / 2 - 5 inches of snow GEM:: 0.50 - 0.70 / 4- 8 inches of snow ECM: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 5 inches of snow ECM Ensembles: 3 - 6 for NYC based off 12z mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In this situation, the strength of the polar vortex probably outweighs the unlikely climatological probability of a major March snowstorm over eastern VA and the Delmarva...but I still think the system may edge a bit north of what the 12z ECMWF shows before all is said & done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm definitely thinking Upton converts the watch to an advisory on the pm update. . I don't see nyc or long island getting enough to meet warning criteria!!!! I really hope im wrong but as of now doesn't look like I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC's QPF total is 1.6 or so. Not all snow. We have a bullseye of 2.0 just to our west. God I wish I could just post the map from SV. Through hour 84 you have to go all the way to KY for 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm honestly quite surprised...I didn't think we'd see yet another shift south. Oh well, at this point I'll take 3-6 inches and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 From day one it was all about the PV…SNE was harping on a north trend because it was a sw flow event, it the end this is similar to February 2010 with the pv position and having the final say There is science behind this, and it is not a SWFE. It was not a lock for a north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Who told you DC almost gets 1.5+? They are barely 1"+. The 1.25"+ is to the NW of DC proper and the 0.75"+ is just southeast. sorry but print out for DC is 1.5"..about a quarter of that is not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Good discussion, just post it in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In this situation, the strength of the polar vortex probably outweighs the unlikely climatological probability of a major March snowstorm over eastern VA and the Delmarva...but I still think the system may edge a bit north of what the 12z ECMWF showsh agreed, also it is March 2nd tomorrow, i think the whole March climo argument has been a bit overdone. This PV means business, that is why I haven't bought the whole north trend argument people are still bringing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 i think this goes even further south tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the storm vista maps aren't as wet as wxbell. could they be toying with precip amounts too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 3/1 12z Summary ( NYC - 5 boroughs / NE-NJ, CNJ) SREF: 0.70 - 0.80 / 4 - 8 inches of snow NAM: 0.60 - 0.85 / 4 - 8 inches of snow GFS: 0.40 - 0.75 / 4 - 10 inches of snow GEFS: 0.50 - 0.70 / 4 - 8 inches of snow UKMET: 0.25 - 0.50 / 2 - 5 inches of snow GEM:: 0.50 - 0.70 / 4- 8 inches of snow ECM: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 5 inches of snow ECM Ensembles: 3 - 6 for NYC based off 12z mean.. And for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 i think this goes even further south tonight Thats what I've been thinking too, I actually think the WAA wave initially ends up more north and stronger and the 2nd system goes further south...Mitchell Gaines just posted in the PHL forum about a possible screw zone somewhere in SE PA or CNTRL-SRN NJ where they are warm or too far south on the first wave and then miss the 2nd storm...definitely seems possible, I'd almost rather be in Staten Island right now that between TTN and PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 BTW looks like the NWS was definitely smart in playing it conservative from the start and not going with the higher 10+" amounts even when some of the models were showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 God I wish I could just post the map from SV. Through hour 84 you have to go all the way to KY for 2"+. Well basic orographic lift makes more snow (& QPF in general) in places like the Blue Ridge Mountains a virtual certainty versus the coastal plain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember march of last year....climo won even as the precip starting falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thats what I've been thinking too, I actually think the WAA wave initially ends up more north and stronger and the 2nd system goes further south...Mitchell Gaines just posted in the PHL forum about a possible screw zone somewhere in SE PA or CNTRL-SRN NJ where they are warm or too far south on the first wave and then miss the 2nd storm...definitely seems possible, I'd almost rather be in Staten Island right now that between TTN and PHL yeah ive been thinking of that since I read your post earlier...although the Euro has the WAA wave still pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And for us? That is for you. You can figure out your totals off that chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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