CT Rain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah no one forecast this torch today. lol... I had 35 for BDL and 37 for HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well in Jan and most of Feb sun and 35-40 does nothing but now this sun kills. It's as strong as late August. Most of the area here is shade so it's fine except out front by the road.. But I'm really thinking we don't see grass until April sometime. Provided of course Scooters right and there's still a few more snowstorms in the pipeline. You could get a sunburn today if you laid out on your snow banks. No joke I said I don't think we are done...I'm not locking in several snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah it was an odd one. All week we mentioned the potential for a winter storm on Monday but I think the message may have gotten away from us a bit? I know we did stories on Friday about people sick of the snow and towns scrambling to make sure they had salt supplies (due to the shortage) - so sometimes that can make the snow "possibility" seem like a snow "certainty" to viewers. It's the constant noise of hype that is drowning out the reasonable voices. Unfortunately, it's not just the weenies. I see quite a bit of hype and terrible meteorology from TV weathercasters. Suddenly, their message that was relegated to one channel and one time slot can now be amplified across a region on twitter/facebook. I've even seen snow maps from Philadelphia TV stations (who haven't given any thought to where to draw a polygon north of central NJ - and why would they?) get used by people in CT to say holy crap we're getting 6"-10" of snow. Communication is much more difficult than it was 5-10 years ago. While social media is great for those with an interest in weather I think it does more harm than good for the general public. again how exactly does this all effect anyone? Lol it's actually just a conversation piece,in the scheme of things it's overblown as to its real impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought most were ignoring a south push in favor of cherry picked runs inside of D4. Maybe that isn't a reflection of the group at large but instead my perception. Again I think once the seed was planted of this being a big system the mentality changes from "small to big" and we start looking for reasons why it can be a big hitter again, vs if we looked at this mostly inside of 3-4 days it was mostly a more confined system with only occasional spurts of life in some runs. (I'm specifically giving props to Powderfreak, Fella and Harvey Leonard) because at various times here or on SM they mentioned and defended the idea that this was overwhelmingly trending south after those initial way north runs. A larger issue is what happened to the models again that really none were close to perfect. The GGEM is definitely becoming a more useful tool...but what has happened to the Euro and why is the GFS getting worse and worse? Harvey had a light to mod event right to BOS even on Friday. I think many did acknowledge a trend south...at least most mets anyways, but yes we did mention how these love to come north in the final 48 hours...even with a PV. In the end the PV won but I would have zero problem rolling with that opinion again because in the end I know I would be more right than wrong. Obviously individual events differ....but you get my drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well in Jan and most of Feb sun and 35-40 does nothing but now this sun kills. It's as strong as late August. Most of the area here is shade so it's fine except out front by the road.. But I'm really thinking we don't see grass until April sometimehttp://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php. Provided of course Scooters right and there's still a few more snowstorms in the pipeline. You could get a sunburn today if you laid out on your snow banks. No joke What the blue fuk? That doesn't happen until like late April! It is as strong as mid October now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 again how exactly does this all effect anyone? Lol it's actually just a conversation piece,in the scheme of things it's overblown as to its real impacts I think it makes meteorologists as a whole look like dults. When we all get lumped in together it's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought most were ignoring a south push in favor of cherry picked runs inside of D4. Maybe that isn't a reflection of the group at large but instead my perception. Again I think once the seed was planted of this being a big system the mentality changes from "small to big" and we start looking for reasons why it can be a big hitter again, vs if we looked at this mostly inside of 3-4 days it was mostly a more confined system with only occasional spurts of life in some runs. (I'm specifically giving props to Powderfreak, Fella and Harvey Leonard) because at various times here or on SM they mentioned and defended the idea that this was overwhelmingly trending south after those initial way north runs. A larger issue is what happened to the models again that really none were close to perfect. The GGEM is definitely becoming a more useful tool...but what has happened to the Euro and why is the GFS getting worse and worse? Meh. We simply got boned by a rotating vort lobe. If that PV doesn't send it our way it's a different ballgame. I think every met here said the behavior and orientation of the PV/lobes need to be watched. I will admit I gave the VT guys a hard time about punting at d5, but at no time was I confident NNE would do well. I just felt we needed to give it more time to see how it would play out. VT has punted everything this year anyways. If they end up with 1-2ft from a storm in March or April they will have punted that a few times before verification too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Being a pavement engineer, we have a joke (yes engineers do have a sense of humor) that the number of pavement engineers is amazingly the same as the number of licensed drivers. There are times when you do everything right and yet something goes wrong and unfortunately these problems are front and center for everyone driving on that road. I would imagine the same type of correlation would apply to meteorology, except now, it would be everyone who has a window is a meteorologist. What I have learned from doing this for 20 years, is you do your best to figure out what went wrong, stow it away and hopefully the next time you encounter a similar situation, you can draw upon your previous experiences and proceed with caution. Sometimes it just falls into the (blank) happens category and there is nothing that can be done to change that. Very few people have jobs where when things go sideways it is front and center. While social media amplifies things, there is nothing that will change that. The science should never be compromised to compete with social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I will admit I gave the VT guys a hard time about punting at d5, but at no time was I confident NNE would do well. I just felt we needed to give it more time to see how it would play out. VT has punted everything this year anyways. If they end up with 1-2ft from a storm in March or April they will have punted that a few times before verification too. I thought it was me and Cold Front that punted this last system south? He's in Maine . Even when that was going on a few days ago you called him Eyewall I think haha. I won't punt something that I think has a good chance of hitting. I have yet to get that warm fuzzy feeling this season during the "bigger events". You've known my style enough on the boards over the years... I tend to be conservative, but my forecasts are similar to CT_snowstorm's on the whole. I don't just debbie everything that comes through...you just get a feeling about systems and this season that feeling of "this is going to nail us" just hasn't been there. I don't think anyone can argue the majority of the systems this year hit us well, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought it was me and Cold Front that punted this last system south? He's in Maine . Even when that was going on a few days ago you called him Eyewall I think haha. I won't punt something that I think has a good chance of hitting. I have yet to get that warm fuzzy feeling this season during the "bigger events". You've known my style enough on the boards over the years... I tend to be conservative, but my forecasts are similar to CT_snowstorm's on the whole. I don't just debbie everything that comes through...you just get a feeling about systems and this season that feeling of "this is going to nail us" just hasn't been there. I don't think anyone can argue the majority of the systems this year hit us well, haha. It was, I had a bad feeling from the get go on this one, Even if we were on the northern side of the guidance, We would have seen very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Question.. Can this type of ice pack we have now sublimate or is it pretty much rock solid as is? Outside if the sun of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought it was me and Cold Front that punted this last system south? He's in Maine . Even when that was going on a few days ago you called him Eyewall I think haha. I won't punt something that I think has a good chance of hitting. I have yet to get that warm fuzzy feeling this season during the "bigger events". You've known my style enough on the boards over the years... I tend to be conservative, but my forecasts are similar to CT_snowstorm's on the whole. I don't just debbie everything that comes through...you just get a feeling about systems and this season that feeling of "this is going to nail us" just hasn't been there. I don't think anyone can argue the majority of the systems this year hit us well, haha. You did however think this was a SNE hit in some form as did every single poster from Met to Hobbyists, Freeman was the only one who thought wiff.it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I assume all the torch talk to be empty hyperbole ... seeing as the average high in much of CT for March 1st is 39 to 45 from N to S across the state. It's less than 40 everywhere, there, and not likely to go any higher given synoptics, and the fact that the apogee of the day is behind. It is/was/likely to verify, colder than normal for the date. But I don't know -- sometimes I wonder if people really believe the things they post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I assume all the torch talk to be empty hyperbole ... seeing as the average high in much of CT for March 1st is 39 to 45 from N to S across the state. It's less than 40 everywhere, there, and not likely to go any higher given synoptics, and the fact that the apogee of the day is behind. It is/was/likely to verify, colder than normal for the date. But I don't know -- sometimes I wonder if people really believe the things they post. Down to 32 and cloudy now. Only hit 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You did however think this was a SNE hit in some form as did every single poster from Met to Hobbyists, Freeman was the only one who thought wiff.it is what it is Oh I certainly thought there was no way at least you wouldn't see snow out of this, especially where you work. When I was saying suppressed it was for my neck of the woods (but that hasn't been a ballsy call this season, haha), not suppressed for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You did however think this was a SNE hit in some form as did every single poster from Met to Hobbyists, Freeman was the only one who thought wiff.it is what it is That's really not true. I'm sure there were others that felt like this was going to be squashed but don't post because they don't want to be labeled as being negative. I went back and forth with some of them, so I know there were others that post here that thought this was cooked mostly a few days ago. There will be snow in SE areas tonight, the question still is how much and how much it messes up the commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Will have to see how much snow is able to develop later into tonight/early Monday. Little trough/convergence may be able to eek out some accumulations in eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ya powderfreak will obviously be concservative but never just punt unless its really gonna be high confidence miss or high confidence below normal snowfall pattern and i take his posts as seriously as any as i think he has demonstrated he knows his stuff Birving has had several good calls this season as well, of course they Are not popular, but he has been solid for most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Will have to see how much snow is able to develop later into tonight/early Monday. Little trough/convergence may be able to eek out some accumulations in eastern MA. Ya from phil to you looks like there is chance for a little still...maybe further up (i haven't looked) . I would say it looks like more than a "lobe" from the polar vortex took this from Bos to Richmond-DC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That's really not true. I'm sure there were others that felt like this was going to be squashed but don't post because they don't want to be labeled as being negative. I went back and forth with some of them, so I know there were others that post here that thought this was cooked mostly a few days ago. There will be snow in SE areas tonight, the question still is how much and how much it messes up the commute. this makes no sense of course its true,how would I know what people did not post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 this makes no sense of course its true,how would I know what people did not post? You're acting like everyone was on board with your idea on this being a major hit. That isn't the case. When you kind of called out Harvey Leonard by posting his tweet re the south trend do you really think others were going to stand up and tell you that they too thought it was going south? Especially amateurs? Dissenting thought is gradually getting drowned out in a sea of hype and hope IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 they might not even whiten the old snow piles in nyc....ugh! i figured it miss us for sure but thought nyc south was golden...well its cloudy again...33f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Question.. Can this type of ice pack we have now sublimate or is it pretty much rock solid as is? Outside if the sun of course I think the answer is yes. Evaporation eventually wins I think but I might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think the answer is yes. Evaporation eventually wins I think but I might be wrong.Yeah I figured a few mets would know the answer but not the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought it was me and Cold Front that punted this last system south? He's in Maine . Even when that was going on a few days ago you called him Eyewall I think haha. I won't punt something that I think has a good chance of hitting. I have yet to get that warm fuzzy feeling this season during the "bigger events". You've known my style enough on the boards over the years... I tend to be conservative, but my forecasts are similar to CT_snowstorm's on the whole. I don't just debbie everything that comes through...you just get a feeling about systems and this season that feeling of "this is going to nail us" just hasn't been there. I don't think anyone can argue the majority of the systems this year hit us well, haha. No I meant Eyewall...he is punting more than the Cleveland Browns. It's all in fun though. You guys have had reason to be pessimistic, but I just hate the concept of "punting" at d5...especially with southern streamers. You guys are more or less persistence forecasting which can be pretty dangerous in our region.I think we all have hunches from time to time, but I try not to be overly influenced by them in meteorology. The science doesn't care what your gut feeling is. SNE has been snowy...CNE fairly snowy...the Great Lakes region snowy. The Montreal area got it good while you guys had ice. You've just been in a bad luck zone thus far. That has nothing to do with climo going forward though...especially with the LR looking favorable for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think the answer is yes. Evaporation eventually wins I think but I might be wrong.All snow and ice can sublimate.Take a look at the ice cubes in your freezer if they've been sitting in there long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And remember...sublimation is ice directly to a gas. It takes more energy to pull that off compared to liquid to a gas (evaporation). Because of that, sublimational cooling produces more latent cooling than evaporational. Like evaporation, it's enhanced with drier air and more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah I figured a few mets would know the answer but not the case It most certainly can sublimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It most certainly can sublimate.So we are losing snow everyday even in shade and cold with low dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So we are losing snow everyday even in shade and cold with low dews? It's probably unnoticeable on a day to day basis but technically yes. However, it's virtually meaningless in the shade. I wouldn't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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