dendrite Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So we are losing snow everyday even in shade and cold with low dews?Yeah, but it's pretty negligible...nothing like from compaction and melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 they might not even whiten the old snow piles in nyc....ugh! i figured it miss us for sure but thought nyc south was golden...well its cloudy again...33f Somewhere in there on the pivot point someone is going to get hosed totally. BOX keeps cutting back on the map and I think they're still too high on the Cape and Islands (4-6 on ack?), but it's possible we see 1-3" into eastern MA with a little bit of enhancement later tonight into Monday. If that doesn't setup...dusting to 1 inch will be best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's probably unnoticeable on a day to day basis but technically yes. However, it's virtually meaningless in the shade. I wouldn't sweat it.No I wasn't worried or anything but I was just wondering. I know it goes away with no ice or water content but wasn't sure about glaciated snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm just happy we're getting the opportunity to talk about Connecticut's snowpack in the storm thread now that this threat has largely flopped. Latest BOX map which seems really aggressive for the Cape but here's to hoping. Dusting to an inch seems like the best case scenario around here and I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw some falling light snow. If we get lucky overnight and winds are able to come off the ocean enough PYM and the western part of the Cape may get in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm just happy we're getting the opportunity to talk about Connecticut's snowpack in the storm thread now that this threat has largely flopped. Latest BOX map which seems really aggressive for the Cape but here's to hoping. Dusting to an inch seems like the best case scenario around here and I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw some falling light snow. If we get lucky overnight and winds are able to come off the ocean enough PYM and the western part of the Cape may get in the game. Noone has any interest in a couple of flurries on the Cape. I sent you a message on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm just happy we're getting the opportunity to talk about Connecticut's snowpack in the storm thread now that this threat has largely flopped. Latest BOX map which seems really aggressive for the Cape but here's to hoping. Dusting to an inch seems like the best case scenario around here and I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw some falling light snow. If we get lucky overnight and winds are able to come off the ocean enough PYM and the western part of the Cape may get in the game. I agree with that map for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's probably unnoticeable on a day to day basis but technically yes. However, it's virtually meaningless in the shade. I wouldn't sweat it. lol. Sending reassurance regaring snow melt. 39F max today. Cloudiness all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I agree with that map for this area. There's going to be an attempt at enhancement overnight that could even get up into your area and the rest of east coastal MA. Will have to be watched. I think that has a better shot of delivering snow than anything coming in from the SW. Right now it looks to favor the eastern 2/3 of Cape Cod, I could be entirely shut out of anything aside of a passing snow shower as well as areas NW but both the Euro and GFS show a thumb of moisture sticking into eastern MA after 10pm tonight with a focus around 6z and beyond. If that fails I think this is a wipeout even here with under and inch and possibly just a feather dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hoping for some snow tonight. Light NE wind out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hoping for some snow tonight. Light NE wind out there. Nice spike in RH coming later this evening on most of the models. Wish we had winds more aligned aloft, but it should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What is the wind speed needed to get OES going, 10mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What is the wind speed needed to get OES going, 10mph? Wind speed isn't something that initiates, but you want at least 10kts to advect moisture in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 it may easily be a cape cod special so those north of PYM should not be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You're acting like everyone was on board with your idea on this being a major hit. That isn't the case. When you kind of called out Harvey Leonard by posting his tweet re the south trend do you really think others were going to stand up and tell you that they too thought it was going south? Especially amateurs? Dissenting thought is gradually getting drowned out in a sea of hype and hope IMO. don't change my words. I said everyone said some kind of hit,also said Harvey was a god,also said it could go south, So all of a sudden you magically know what other's think,people dissent all the time, you are full of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So we are losing snow everyday even in shade and cold with low dews? Everywhere is losing some snow everyday, even in shade, all winter long...from the summit of MWN to the mountains of Colorado to the Carolina's when they have snow, haha. The thing is it is such a small fraction that its really not even worth thinking about. The rate of decrease in snow will depend on the liquid content in the snow...which is why fluffy snow will evaporate faster to the naked eye (ie. you notice it more). A pack filled with sleet and ZR is going to take forever to evaporate. It takes so much energy to evaporate an inch of water-logged frozen snowpack that you really shouldn't be concerned about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 No I meant Eyewall...he is punting more than the Cleveland Browns. It's all in fun though. You guys have had reason to be pessimistic, but I just hate the concept of "punting" at d5...especially with southern streamers. You guys are more or less persistence forecasting which can be pretty dangerous in our region. I think we all have hunches from time to time, but I try not to be overly influenced by them in meteorology. The science doesn't care what your gut feeling is. SNE has been snowy...CNE fairly snowy...the Great Lakes region snowy. The Montreal area got it good while you guys had ice. You've just been in a bad luck zone thus far. That has nothing to do with climo going forward though...especially with the LR looking favorable for NNE. Fair post...I know the weather doesn't care about hunches, lol, just like it doesn't care if you are optimistic or pessimistic, but I do tend to lean more towards my gut feeling. As far as persistence forecasting, I guess it can be dangerous but I also think it has some real merit until a proven pattern change occurs. It seems to want to snow over the same areas when a pattern gets locked in, just like in the summer, it likes to rain over the same areas once a pattern develops. I think of it like last summer we set a record May/June/July rainfall total...it rained like 25 days in June. I think by that point, if a model has any sort of trigger or forcing mechanism, you go with a wet forecast. Other years it seems you get stuck in a dry rut (dangerous droughts especially), and you start to lean more towards the dry solutions. I mean you don't base a forecast entirely off of persistence, but I think there's merit there. If models are advertising a cold shot, but for the past 2 months you've watched every modeled cold shot under-perform and every torch over-performs, you tend to forecast the warmer side of guidance. This winter it just seemed like it didn't want to snow as much here in the mountains (relative to normal), so I started taking the under on snowfall. Had we been getting crushed and every passing cloud seemed to over-perform, you can bet I'd be tossing out big numbers for the mountain everytime a shortwave came within 100 miles of here. I'm probably reading into patterns too much (or maybe the wrong reasons?), but there's something to be said for persistence forecasting. Maybe patterns are just a bunch of good and bad luck (depending on what you are looking for), but I think you can start to see a trend over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Although radar currently looks impressive over Arkansas and Tennessee, the echoes hit a wall at I-70. Everything is being shunted due east and a notch south of due east as it progresses eastward. Although its obvious that NYC on north is out on this one, those even in south Jersey and the DC/BWI corridor should start to be concerned about suppression. This is certainly one of the more suppressed storms I can recall for so late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 don't change my words. I said everyone said some kind of hit,also said Harvey was a god,also said it could go south, So all of a sudden you magically know what other's think,people dissent all the time, you are full of it A week or so ago you provided some objective input on my posting, so I'll provide some with regards to yours. You've been over the top most of the winter with the Leon stuff and epicosity to the point of making some of these pages unreadable. Your winter forecast was very good, some of your individual storm interests have been awful like this one today. You held onto the salt nuclei encrusted deck chairs on the SS 94 SnowShip until it sank to the bottom,cracked in half, vanished and was rediscovered by Robert Ballard and models moved south. You've been someone I've known through the weather community for many years and someone who's input I've always valued, respected and appreciated reading but this winter has been different. Maybe my perception is changing I don't know and that's part of why I stepped back. There were more flareups on this thread than usual and I had no part in that until these last few pages and I'm at the point of concluding a wiser and more experienced friend may have made one of the best statements of the winter. Enjoy the snow overnight. Originally we all did this because we were having fun, when the fun ends I think we all start to question what it is we're dedicating so much time on. It's fukked up. You give an objective analysis and you're accused of being a snow watcher vs snow lover. Sometimes the bb just isn't worth precious time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Although radar currently looks impressive over Arkansas and Tennessee, the echoes hit a wall at I-70. Everything is being shunted due east and a notch south of due east as it progresses eastward. Although its obvious that NYC on north is out on this one, those even in south Jersey and the DC/BWI corridor should start to be concerned about suppression. This is certainly one of the more suppressed storms I can recall for so late in the season. I can't comment on down south haven't been paying attention, but barring this thing being able to generate some precip insitu overnight I think we're kind of toast up here too. There's an opportunity as we approach midnight towards eastern MA and Cape Cod but the window closes quickly. A dusting would be a win here at this point, with the hope being there's a surprise from the kink that may be enough to get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I can't comment on down south haven't been paying attention, but barring this thing being able to generate some precip insitu overnight I think we're kind of toast up here too. There's an opportunity as we approach midnight towards eastern MA and Cape Cod but the window closes quickly. A dusting would be a win here at this point, with the hope being there's a surprise from the kink that may be enough to get things going. I'm not buying the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm not buying the GFS. Oh I think it's totally bunk in how widespread it is....but the Euro had the same finger of higher moisture (look at 925mb etc later tonight). Winds didn't look favorable to me outside of the eastern 2/3 of the Cape though and I don't think the snow shield from the main storm ever makes it up here. I'm not sure I'd really have accumulations up anywhere aside of the Islands. Maybe paint the rest of the areas in that light gray of up to an inch where they have accumulations now. I read their discussion and understand the higher ratios but things look awfully suppressed to the SW don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I still do not think it was obvious whatsoever that SNE would miss on this storm before the 12z Friday morning runs. Southern stream systems coming back north is pretty typical...even when we have a PV to the north of us. The 00z Feb 28 suite bumped north (and 06z GFS even further if you want to bother with that run) after the 12z 27th suite bumped south. At this point we were roughly 84-96 hours out. Talking about how a trend occurred from 144 to 108 hours is meaningless to me in the grand scheme of forecasting this storm because those time frames are too volatile...we see storms trend in one direction all the time from D6 to D4 only to reverse the trend once the models are in their high scoring skill range. I'm not sure how anyone could be confident that it would miss at this point. No huge storm? Sure. But whiff? No way. Not confident anyway. I think at this point the general consensus feeling was that it might bump north again because that tends to be typical of southern stream systems and we have had a lot of experience with these in New England over the past several years. However, the confidence wasn't exactly high on this idea. I know some people were more pessimistic about the storm, though I never saw a great reason why at this stage. The PV was mentioned of course...but we've had that before and still trended north with these systems. The orientation of the PV was certainly key and I know I (and several others) mentioned this point. You get a potent lobe rotating around at the wrong time, then it can shove a storm into a brick wall way south of where you thought. This happened in the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm...otherwise that would have been 200 miles north much like PDII was in a similar setup. This lobe was not yet in an auspicious location on the 00z Feb 28 suite. The PV itself was further northeast than now and the lobe rotating around was further north and much slower. The newer guidance sped it up quite a bit and deepened it. This prevented any ability for the southern stream to phase with a bit of vorticity coming out of the northern plains. The irony in this whole system is that the southern stream did in fact trend stronger as I toggle the 00z Feb 28 charts and the current forecasts for tomorrow morning. Definitely a deeper/stronger southern stream than those runs last week. It is all in the how the PV orientation changed between then and now. Much much stronger lobe rotating around the south side, faster, and the PV itself a bit south to boot. Now if someone thought that the southern stream would trend stronger but the PV lobe would trend even stronger/faster and more than counter-act it, pushing this south, then I will be impressed. I'm not sure what evidence would have been available several days ago for that to make a confident prediction (I.E it was obvious we'd be out of the game), but I do tip my hat to those who were thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A week or so ago you provided some objective input on my posting, so I'll provide some with regards to yours. You've been over the top most of the winter with the Leon stuff and epicosity to the point of making some of these pages unreadable. Your winter forecast was very good, some of your individual storm interests have been awful like this one today. You held onto the salt nuclei encrusted deck chairs on the SS 94 SnowShip until it sank to the bottom,cracked in half, vanished and was rediscovered by Robert Ballard and models moved south. You've been someone I've known through the weather community for many years and someone who's input I've always valued, respected and appreciated reading but this winter has been different. Maybe my perception is changing I don't know and that's part of why I stepped back. There were more flareups on this thread than usual and I had no part in that until these last few pages and I'm at the point of concluding a wiser and more experienced friend may have made one of the best statements of the winter. Enjoy the snow overnight. Originally we all did this because we were having fun, when the fun ends I think we all start to question what it is we're dedicating so much time on. lol,cherry pick a Jerry quote from a misunderstanding, he thought my ball busting with Ray was directed at him. So I posted model output and thats wrong? Whatever bro, you left the board because other's disagree with you, strikes me as odd. I may develop your new posting style,wait until the consensus is done,come in pump your chest and say see I knew that all along. Being a hobbyist I care more about discussing outcomes and what individual models show, your aim is different. For what its worth 94 is spot on,Leon and epicosity was a joke. Loosen up your panties you come off like a bitter old man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I still do not think it was obvious whatsoever that SNE would miss on this storm before the 12z Friday morning runs. Southern stream systems coming back north is pretty typical...even when we have a PV to the north of us. The 00z Feb 28 suite bumped north (and 06z GFS even further if you want to bother with that run) after the 12z 27th suite bumped south. At this point we were roughly 84-96 hours out. Talking about how a trend occurred from 144 to 108 hours is meaningless to me in the grand scheme of forecasting this storm because those time frames are too volatile...we see storms trend in one direction all the time from D6 to D4 only to reverse the trend once the models are in their high scoring skill range. I'm not sure how anyone could be confident that it would miss at this point. No huge storm? Sure. But whiff? No way. Not confident anyway. I think at this point the general consensus feeling was that it might bump north again because that tends to be typical of southern stream systems and we have had a lot of experience with these in New England over the past several years. However, the confidence wasn't exactly high on this idea. I know some people were more pessimistic about the storm, though I never saw a great reason why at this stage. The PV was mentioned of course...but we've had that before and still trended north with these systems. The orientation of the PV was certainly key and I know I (and several others) mentioned this point. You get a potent lobe rotating around at the wrong time, then it can shove a storm into a brick wall way south of where you thought. This happened in the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm...otherwise that would have been 200 miles north much like PDII was in a similar setup. This lobe was not yet in an auspicious location on the 00z Feb 28 suite. The PV itself was further northeast than now and the lobe rotating around was further north and much slower. The newer guidance sped it up quite a bit and deepened it. This prevented any ability for the southern stream to phase with a bit of vorticity coming out of the northern plains. The irony in this whole system is that the southern stream did in fact trend stronger as I toggle the 00z Feb 28 charts and the current forecasts for tomorrow morning. Definitely a deeper/stronger southern stream than those runs last week. It is all in the how the PV orientation changed between then and now. Much much stronger lobe rotating around the south side, faster, and the PV itself a bit south to boot. Now if someone thought that the southern stream would trend stronger but the PV lobe would trend even stronger/faster and more than counter-act it, pushing this south, then I will be impressed. I'm not sure what evidence would have been available several days ago for that to make a confident prediction (I.E it was obvious we'd be out of the game), but I do tip my hat to those who were thinking that. That's pretty much it. I feel like we argued this point in some shape or form..but yet somehow it's fallen on deaf ears. I feel like people are just assuming we were wishcasting a trend north when there is actual science behind it...case in point the srn stream actually trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Oh and PV, Actually right out of the playbook. Wills post is 100% spot on, taking any run and thinking its a final solution this far out is fraught with fail. My self I will decide after Sat's noon runs if its a big deal or run of the mill. early opinion game on for a whole lot of populace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 BOX has me partly sunny for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 One of my professors cancelled class Friday for Monday due to the impending snow. FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 lol,cherry pick a Jerry quote from a misunderstanding, he thought my ball busting with Ray was directed at him. So I posted model output and thats wrong? Whatever bro, you left the board because other's disagree with you, strikes me as odd. I may develop your new posting style,wait until the consensus is done,come in pump your chest and say see I knew that all along. Being a hobbyist I care more about discussing outcomes and what individual models show, your aim is different. For what its worth 94 is spot on,Leon and epicosity was a joke. Loosen up your panties you come off like a bitter old man. Go back and reread this thread. The first page you were adamant about this storm and I get it you were excited...fast forward to people trying to mention the later models and there's comments about you hitting it or whatever...what does that actually mean in terms of what's supposed to be real analysis? Then there was a dustup with Ray when he made an innocent comment about not caring and you told him to smoke exhaust or whatever, then Jerry was confused about who you were going back and forth with and made his comment...then you were calling forky a troll because he tossed some of the nonsense back at you which was actually fair given the long lead of what you posted.....and now we're having this discussion. Ever stop to think that maybe the reason Jerry didn't understand (nor did I) that you were talking to Ray and not him is that you're confusing the heck out of people? In this one thread there's a couple of people that have been around a long time Steve that were scratching heads at various times over some things.... you were critical of me, all I'm saying is give it some thought. I think this thread was a perfect illustration of what happens when it gets too familiar in a high stakes event. People mistake or misunderstand intent and what is being directed at whom and we end up on a 10 or 15 post tangent figuring it out. Our moderators were criticizing other regions, I'm not really sure we're in the position to talk. You sent a request to be in the circle for the page where I pretty clearly spelled this stuff out during the week on how I felt. So....I realize you may not have read it but to come back and act like it's a johnny come lately thing...please. All the flags were there if you cared to read it and I wasn't going to put it here while you were in the middle of talking about salt nuclei and saturation to 200mb. I'm not even sure about the south coast and cape at this point on the snow so I clearly busted too ( I figured for sure we'd see a few inches on the Cape over to at least SE RI) and it's not about being right or wrong anyway, who cares, we at one time did this for fun. But Ray or several others can tell you I was pretty adamant about this being squashed days ago. It's different for amateurs we can wing it, I get why the pros have to be more cautious and wisely so. You gave your opinion and I am giving you mine, I think your posting style changed a lot this winter and not for the better. I miss the carefully thought out Ginxy posts that were replaced with epicosity and Leon and which model run you'd hit this year. Maybe overall the forum is changing and I'm not changing with it, either way I wish you well bud. KevininMA I think it was made a post last year about Scott and I posting less and reading more. I think I finally understood how he felt in reading this thread. More isn't always better. Anyway, unless this one magically comes to life overnight or the mini-OES deal crops up it's probably one of my last opportunities before I went into hibernation. Like I said you were pretty blunt a week or two ago, I hope you can respect the fact that I'm doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Like I said Scott, lighten up,its only an opinion. High stakes event?, gezzus the discussuons you quoted were on Thursday, I never read your Google stuff, might have tonight if it mattered, this conversation is weird. You misquote me,tell me I should know what people who didn't post are thinking, apparently you do,take stuff out of context,fail to post follow ups so I have to bump my own posts.yea I loved the entire model looks at one time,posted I did.As far as Forky goes,lol,lol,seriously? You are kidding me. Have to be.Why did you come back if its so bad? You dissed the Mets,Mods,Me the forum and expect sympathy? Look it up in the dictionary it's between sh it and syphillis. Lol lighten uo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Chuck some sea salt into that sounding for nuclei and you've got a deep, deep snow growth zone.bump for Polar Vortex, again fact check before you throw me under the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.