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March 2nd/3rd Winter Storm Potential

joey2002

By joey2002,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Like I said Scott, lighten up,its only an opinion. High stakes event?, gezzus the discussuons you quoted were on Thursday, I never read your Google stuff, might have tonight if it mattered, this conversation is weird. You misquote me,tell me I should know what people who didn't post are thinking, apparently you do,take stuff out of context,fail to post follow ups so I have t bump my own posts.yea I loved the entire model looks at one time,posted I did.As far as Forky goes,lol,lol,seriously? You are kidding me. Have to be.Why did you come back if its so bad? You dissed the Mets,Mods,Me the forum and expect sympathy? Look it up in the dictionary it's between sh it and syphillis. Lol lighten uo

 

I don't think I'm the one that needs to lighten up based on the rest of the paragraph. 

 

Go read the first 20 pages of this thread and tell me where we should be commenting on how other subregions handle their technical threads?  Normally that's when the crap starts between regions.   Consistency would be nice in what's allowed and what's not allowed.  Why can't PF say he's mostly out of it while someone else can say it's coming north a few hundred miles which would have put PF back in the game anyway?  Are we that sensitive that one is different than the other? NoCasting vs Wishcasting?  I'm not criticizing either approach I just don't see the difference. 

 

I honestly thought maybe if I wasn't posting things would be different.  Not so much.  The people the next rung up on the naughty scale (not favoring the snowiest model that particular run) got jumped on to some degree or another whether it was fella,  freeman, picks, Ray, whoever and eventually just kind of gave up it looks like in the reread.   If what you post is unclear enough that fella gets confused after all these years what about all the other people that don't know one another so well and we wonder why things go down hill? Imagine the new people and those not in the inner circle?   Like I said the fact that those things are happening at all Steve should maybe hint at there being a problem in interpretation.   Seeing Fella unsuccessfully try to get the point across about a south trend I think hit home that KevinInMa was right a year ago...doesn't matter if it's 1 post of 100 the result will be the same.

 

Why did I come back?  Well I really did wait until the end so that I couldn't be accused of being a negative Nellie (instead a johnny come lately ;) )  I came back after all the tickling was done to make a general comment in retrospect on an event and after it was mainly isolated to an area where about 10 posters reside because it's at that point that all the rules no longer seem to matter and we can start talking about dandelions and nose hairs and about 5 people will see it anyway.     You say on one page they're all learning experiences and then take a shot at me for being the johnny come lately for making some valid points after the fact?  I don't think anything in that post was really inflammatory and it wasn't directed at anyone but were observations in general.  Do I disagree that the trend here was clear earlier...yep 100%.  But so did Harv and some others like SnowGoose.  I think the Harv tweet you picked up on was Thursday?  Who cares anyway that's a weather commentary.

 

Like I said constructive criticism...you had no problems giving it a few weeks ago.  You were wrong on this one and I think you've been over the top at times but I'm not asking for your sympathy. Not debating things endlessly when neither side is going to change their opinion freed up a ton of time.  I was conservative and wrong on this one too, everyone busted.   I was mainly saying I miss the ginxy that used to offer some pretty detailed analysis vs the I'd hit that run type of posts.  I know I'm not alone in that.    But I think the forum is changing and passing me by anyway...which is why I broke off that stuff externally, kind of no different than what CT R did.  Read it, don't read it, I don't really care TBH but I still enjoy participating in the back end I just didn't give up 4+ days of my time in the leadup trying to convince someone else of my viewpoint and enjoyed that greatly!  It's much easier on the carpal tunnel for me to say which model run I'd like to do the Macarena with vs typing up a Typhoon Tip esque post anyways so maybe I should take the hint.

 

 

31, light snow.  The plume of moisture is here and there's the faint signs of some banding beginning to form. Should favor areas to my east and north.  Light coating here now/dusting.

 

EDIT: Steve...you and Ryan went back and forth on the salt in the thread.  But it's all irrelevant.  It was a comment off the GFS at long range, a model that has been HORRIBLE the past 2 weeks since the pattern began to break and reload and a model that has been woefully overdone on endless events this year.  I mean the JMA or DGEX probably hasn't been much worse at that range :)  If they unplugged it for much of this winter we'd all have been better off beyond 2-3 days.

 

There's a reason why nobody retweets the forecasters that are most conservative most of the time (someone here, I don't remember who used a less than flattering term to describe the female forecaster from PVD but I see that got deleted).  Pessimism/keeping it real doesn't sell or energize people.  I get it, that's why I broke off the stuff for these last few/future events because I figured the caution flags would go over like a wet rag.    But I don't see the harm in the wrap up because as you say these are learning experiences.

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Bigbob

Bigbob

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Posted

Fair post...I know the weather doesn't care about hunches, lol, just like it doesn't care if you are optimistic or pessimistic, but I do tend to lean more towards my gut feeling. 

 

As far as persistence forecasting, I guess it can be dangerous but I also think it has some real merit until a proven pattern change occurs.  It seems to want to snow over the same areas when a pattern gets locked in, just like in the summer, it likes to rain over the same areas once a pattern develops.  I think of it like last summer we set a record May/June/July rainfall total...it rained like 25 days in June.  I think by that point, if a model has any sort of trigger or forcing mechanism, you go with a wet forecast.  Other years it seems you get stuck in a dry rut (dangerous droughts especially), and you start to lean more towards the dry solutions.

 

I mean you don't base a forecast entirely off of persistence, but I think there's merit there.  If models are advertising a cold shot, but for the past 2 months you've watched every modeled cold shot under-perform and every torch over-performs, you tend to forecast the warmer side of guidance.  This winter it just seemed like it didn't want to snow as much here in the mountains (relative to normal), so I started taking the under on snowfall.  Had we been getting crushed and every passing cloud seemed to over-perform, you can bet I'd be tossing out big numbers for the mountain everytime a shortwave came within 100 miles of here. 

 

I'm probably reading into patterns too much (or maybe the wrong reasons?), but  there's something to be said for persistence forecasting.  Maybe patterns are just a bunch of good and bad luck (depending on what you are looking for), but I think you can start to see a trend over time.

 

 

 

This winter it just seemed like it didn't want to snow as much here in the mountains (relative to normal), so I started taking the under on snowfall.

 

Do you think that since the lakes are mostly frozen over this year that the Green Mnts are having less snow? The last time the lakes were this frozen over, was the snowfall less than normal?

 

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