Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[Powerball]

FWIW, Detroit had 16 consecutive months of at/above average temps from Spring 2011 to fall 2012 with several months having record-breaking warmth, including July 2011 and 2012.

So, needless to say, trends can die hard.

[Hoosier]

FWIW, Detroit had 16 consecutive months of at/above average temps from Spring 2011 to fall 2012.

So, needless to say, trends can die hard.

 

 

I'd be interested to know the last time there was such a streak of below average temps.

[A-L-E-K]

this kind of hyper persistent blocking and stuck patterns is the new normal

[Chicago WX]

Ok, here you go. Again, this is for Indianapolis...and purely statistical. I only used the airport records for this as well, so this is from 1943 to 2013. 

 

Top 20 coldest Jan-Feb-Mar periods...and then the following summer. The average JJA temp for IND is 73.7º (1943-2013). +1.0 or greater was shaded as a warmer than normal summer and vice versa for colder than normal summers. Everything in between I consider "normal". So I guess technically, a cooler than normal summer would be the lean, if this has any merit. 

 

[harrisale]

this kind of hyper persistent blocking and stuck patterns is the new normal

 

What does this even mean? Just sounds like you're sick of winter lol.

 

YYZ has been below normal since November, but IIRC we had an above normal Sept-Oct.

[Hoosier]

Ok, here you go. Again, this is for Indianapolis...and purely statistical. I only used the airport records for this as well, so this is from 1943 to 2013. 

 

Top 20 coldest Jan-Feb-Mar periods...and then the following summer. The average JJA temp for IND is 73.7º (1943-2013). +1.0 or greater was shaded as a warmer than normal summer and vice versa for colder than normal summers. Everything in between I consider "normal". So I guess technically, a cooler than normal summer would be the lean, if this has any merit. 

 

ind jfm to jja temps.png

 

 

Nice work.  Most of those cool summers don't seem that cool from a departure perspective (and the warm ones not that warm) but I guess we have to keep in mind that it's harder to put up mega departures in summer months.  If you like warmth, another way of spinning this is that half of the summers were near average to above average.   

[Hoosier]

What does this even mean? Sounds like you're sick of winter lol.

 

 

In the words of another poster, globular worming.  Though the science on more intense/frequent blocking seems to have some holes from what I've read.  Anyway, probably best that we don't get into that debate. 

[harrisale]

In the words of another poster, globular worming.  Though the science on more intense/frequent blocking seems to have some holes from what I've read.  Anyway, probably best that we don't get into that debate. 

 

Yeah I figured that was a GW jab. Would be interested to read some papers on the subject though if anyone has a link handy.

[Chicago WX]

Nice work.  Most of those cool summers don't seem that cool from a departure perspective (and the warm ones not that warm) but I guess we have to keep in mind that it's harder to put up mega departures in summer months.  If you like warmth, another way of spinning this is that half of the summers were near average to above average.   

 

Spun like a true summer warmwantista.

 

Anyways, the goal post rankings from that list...the 70.7º in 1958 is the 3rd coldest summer at the airport and the 75.3º in 1978 is the 14th hottest. And further, all time (1943-2013)...the coldest summer at the airport is 70.3º in 1992 and the hottest is 78.1º in 2010. 

[Jonger]

IMO we're locked in all summer

Mid 70's summer would be fine by me. As long as there is sun. Heat is only good for swimming, bad for all other activities.

[andyhb]

you mean hyper-persistant lack of blocking. that is why the pattern is so warm globally.

 

What explains the giant AK/-EPO ridge that has held firm more or less all winter?

[andyhb]

Not that impressive. Matter of fact, this wasn't even that huge of -EPO year. There have been many larger years. very similliar to 2011-12 except where the troughing was deployed. In 2011-12, it was in Asia.

 

That's...kind of a big difference!

[Stebo]

Not that impressive. Matter of fact, this wasn't even that huge of -EPO year. There have been many larger years. very similliar to 2011-12 except where the troughing was deployed. In 2011-12, it was in Asia.

 

Wtf are you talking about, we have been in a -EPO for most of the winter and at points it has been significant.

[harrisale]

Run of the mill -EPO

[blizzardof96]

What explains the giant AK/-EPO ridge that has held firm more or less all winter?

A very strong +QBO coupled with nina forcing has played a big part in this and really helped put the NE pac warm pool feedback into motion back in mid/late november. Years with similar forcing's(+QBO and cool neutral/nina) include 02-03, 85-86, 61-62, 66-67, 71-72 and 80-81. All of these years had impressive north pac blocking although positioning varies depending on ENSO/QBO strength, location and timing.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Mid 70's summer would be fine by me. As long as there is sun. Heat is only good for swimming, bad for all other activities.

This.

[Stebo]

Can all of you 70s lovers move to Northern SK or MB. The rest of us would like to enjoy the summer as much as we enjoy the winter...

[Jonger]

Can all of you 70s lovers move to Northern SK or MB. The rest of us would like to enjoy the summer as much as we enjoy the winter...

 

I would be fine if winter never got colder than 20 degrees, zero is worthless. 

 

I equally find no joy in zero.

[Stebo]

I would be fine if winter never got colder than 20 degrees, zero is worthless. 

 

I equally find no joy in zero.

Fine move to Maine then, that works too. I hear they have limited summer as well.

[BuffaloWeather]

UNLIKE YESTERDAY’S MODELS, TODAY’S MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE 500-HPA PATTERN FROM A DEEP TROUGH IN MUCH OF THE
CONUS TO A RIDGE FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SINCE THIS SHIFT IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MEAN 500-HPA
PATTERN FORECAST OVER THAT PERIOD IS FAIRLY ZONAL AS THE TWO COMPETING PATTERNS AVERAGE OUT TO LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.

[stormtrackertf]

Fine move to Maine then, that works too. I hear they have limited summer as well.

I have a friend in Maine who got ice pellets in July once.

[illinois]

UNLIKE YESTERDAY’S MODELS, TODAY’S MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE 500-HPA PATTERN FROM A DEEP TROUGH IN MUCH OF THE

CONUS TO A RIDGE FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SINCE THIS SHIFT IS FORECAST

TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MEAN 500-HPA

PATTERN FORECAST OVER THAT PERIOD IS FAIRLY ZONAL AS THE TWO COMPETING PATTERNS AVERAGE OUT TO LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.

Hope that's not from Quad City Nichols. I am still waiting on the sixties he forecast for the end of February.

[Stebo]

Hope that's not from Quad City Nichols. I am still waiting on the sixties he forecast for the end of February.

You haven't hit 60 in southeast IL?

[Harry]

 

UNLIKE YESTERDAY’S MODELS, TODAY’S MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE 500-HPA PATTERN FROM A DEEP TROUGH IN MUCH OF THE

CONUS TO A RIDGE FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SINCE THIS SHIFT IS FORECAST

TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MEAN 500-HPA

PATTERN FORECAST OVER THAT PERIOD IS FAIRLY ZONAL AS THE TWO COMPETING PATTERNS AVERAGE OUT TO LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.

 

 

 

Try giving credit of wherever you ripped that from.

[Geos]

A good read here, on how the polar vortex is on its last breathe's as the winds reverse from top to bottom.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

[BuffaloWeather]

Try giving credit of wherever you ripped that from

 

You don't know where it's from?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[Geos]

 

UNLIKE YESTERDAY’S MODELS, TODAY’S MODELS ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A

SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE 500-HPA PATTERN FROM A DEEP TROUGH IN MUCH OF THE

CONUS TO A RIDGE FORMING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SINCE THIS SHIFT IS FORECAST

TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE MEAN 500-HPA

PATTERN FORECAST OVER THAT PERIOD IS FAIRLY ZONAL AS THE TWO COMPETING PATTERNS AVERAGE OUT TO LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.

 

 

That from BUF? Nevermind - saw your post above.

 

This is from BUF.

Saw this just now.

 

 

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE

LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING ENTRENCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS

THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOST OF

THE TIME SINCE LAST FALL. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT

LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST

IT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME TO COME...WHILE THE GFS

AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS SOME BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN WITH

A MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. SUCH A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE

TROUGH HAS A TENDENCY TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK...AND IF THE

ECMWF PATTERN VERIFIES WE MAY STAY VERY COLD RIGHT THROUGH THE END

OF MARCH.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

That from BUF? Nevermind - saw your post above.

 

This is from BUF.

Saw this just now.

 

That discussion from the Buffalo NWS are from yesterday. They haven't updated it like CPC has. But yeah the next 10 days look cold, but hopefully a break to a more zonal flow after that. I'll take a cold remainder of March if we get an above average April.

[Harry]

You don't know where it's from?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

Sorry but i don't read them for such stuff and never have.. NOT knocking them either as i really don't know enough to say..

[Harry]

 

That discussion from the Buffalo NWS are from yesterday. They haven't updated it like CPC has. But yeah the next 10 days look cold, but hopefully a break to a more zonal flow after that. I'll take a cold remainder of March if we get an above average April.

 

 

If it is not gonna snow imby then the cold can get lost now as far as i am concerned. Cold and boring to rain and back to cold and more boring does zero for me. Unfortunately what i want vs what happens doesn't always work out. lol