Superstorm93 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 FWIW... If you take the 12z ECMWF verbatim, then seasonal snowfall records are in jeopardy in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 From the social media... Non-weenie 12z EURO snowfall totals. No mixing or other BS to deal with. Just a pure crush-job. This map INCLUDES ratios. ScreenHunter_68 Feb. 27 14.33.png WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No Shrewsbury jackpot? Is this a fake map? Haha Here's the site http://www.eurowx.com/?auth=AajpnCn4U.q-D9X6mHNI9b0Uk9W.YS4pPqZMr2dZ3gvb7M4t2ZX1VWpEhjk.T6G7hxDQ3N3q39YVn6OfvDENYUg&form_charset=UTF-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 From the social media... Non-weenie 12z EURO snowfall totals. No mixing or other BS to deal with. Just a pure crush-job. This map INCLUDES ratios. ScreenHunter_68 Feb. 27 14.33.png Bring it, b*tches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It certainly has the look of a very cold storm like that one was, that's for sure. This is kind of a straightforward threat when it comes down to it, imo. There almost definitely will be a storm crossing the country, and where this frontal boundary sets up its going to dictate where the swath of heavy snow goes. With the PV and the strength of the cold air, I was already leaning away from the warmer Euro solution.. but wasn't expecting it to shift as much as it did today. The cold air will likely win in at least most of our area as it generally has all winter long but with it being March the warm air down south should put up a fight to a point, so I don't buy complete suppression. Basically I don't think we get out of this without at least a decent event. and this is without models accounting for overrunning that we have seen over perform all winter... to me seems like an idea set up where some areas will see significant accumulations across southern pa before the mail bulk of the modeled precip arrives Okay, ECM is fair enough. Still fearful. euro ensemble is now running... curious to see if it jumps that far south too or if it ends up north of operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Who on FB posted that Euro map? Don't see it on DT's page for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Who on FB posted that Euro map? Don't see it on DT's page for example. Click the link I posted above and try the free trial. Then you'll be able to see it for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Next 36 hours are important as the pieces of the storm come on shore out west and get into the sampling network. If this threat is here after the 00z runs Saturday then I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No Shrewsbury jackpot? Is this a fake map? Haha doesnt include the virgin islands so yep its a fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Holy expletive, expletive, expletive! lol you think next run will be very very dry qpf wise right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 for those who can see it, is this still later Sunday evening through Monday? When is the heaviest precip, Monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 for those who can see it, is this still later Sunday evening through Monday? When is the heaviest precip, Monday afternoon? Late Monday morning through Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 for those who can see it, is this still later Sunday evening through Monday? When is the heaviest precip, Monday afternoon? Looks to be Monday into Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's an interesting setup despite there not being a strong surface low and a weakening 500 mb shortwave. The main lifting mechanism appears to be the upper-level jet streak circulation. This feature develops mainly due to the 500 mb confluence in QB leading to low-level cold, ageostrophic flow to the north and warm advection to the south of the frontal boundary. Coupled with the upper-level divergence in the jet's right entrance region is a large area of poleward sloping frontogenetic forcing over the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. There looks to be decent pwat anomalies over the southern plains into the deep south from Sunday afternoon to Monday. That should allow for some intense rainfall down in that region which could support more ridging downstream as a result of the bulk diabatic heating. That may bring the frontal boundary a bit farther north than modelled, though it will be opposed somewhat by the low-level ageostrophic cold drain. I haven't looked at the 12z Euro yet in detail but I assume there are some differences with the GFS regarding the PV strength and in turn the 500 mb confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Watch that south trend boys and girls..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Thanks men. So the heaviest is Monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 euro ensemble mean similar to operational... maybe keeps 0C 850mb line slightly further south early on than operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here's the site http://www.eurowx.com/?auth=AajpnCn4U.q-D9X6mHNI9b0Uk9W.YS4pPqZMr2dZ3gvb7M4t2ZX1VWpEhjk.T6G7hxDQ3N3q39YVn6OfvDENYUg&form_charset=UTF-8 I was just messing. I knew it was a real map. Interesting to see how all global guidance has gotten so bullish today. Fun weekend ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 doesnt include the virgin islands so yep its a fakeI was j/k. I don't know if you are though. My apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was just messing. I knew it was a real map. Interesting to see how all global guidance has gotten so bullish today. Fun weekend ahead Sleepless nights ahead. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Looks like 12z EURO ensembles agree with OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sleepless nights ahead. Sent from my iPhone No Kidding, this 1:30 am stuff is difficult. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is just my gut feeling given how these type of systems have tended to evolve in the past but I expect this to trend south, especially the second wave, in the next day or two, only to trend back north the last 48 hours. Seems to be how the models handle these setups for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was j/k. I don't know if you are though. My apologies yes im kidding I was referring to the popular map someone previously made in i think mspaint that was a forecast map for pa area but also had the US virgin islands on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Great news about this time of year is it's a win/win. If it stays south, we get the grass back, outdoor activities quicker. If it comes north, who doesn't love a MECS!! Not going to keep me up at night though. I 83 in the forum could have some ungodly snow totals this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 you think next run will be very very dry qpf wise right? lol Wait there is a storm? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Aleet, Aleet... It's snowing in Carlisle. This must mark the leading edge of the arctic front?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Aleet, Aleet... It's snowing in Carlisle. This must mark the leading edge of the arctic front?? Harrisburg as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Can't wait for the NAM to be in range and we get a 2" qpf run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I guess I'll start paying attention ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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