A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 bring it on and then flash freeze.. folks will be ice skating down the roads to work having a hard time remembering the last time we had a flash freeze with the kind of standing water likely to be in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 having a hard time remembering the last time we had a flash freeze with the kind of standing water likely to be in play Had one here on February 1, after 1.07" of rain. Wasn't very fun really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 1.25 qpf on the gfs for ord. temps go from 44 to 24 in 9 hours. Doesn't get above freezing until like 5 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Had one here on February 1, after 1.07" of rain. Wasn't very fun really. gonna have to make sure i don't have one of those parking spots where water piles 3/4 of the way up the tire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 having a hard time remembering the last time we had a flash freeze with the kind of standing water likely to be in play Not quite flash freeze but 12-12-10 here went from hours of heavy rain to heavy snow and dropped into the teens by that night. The freeways were absolute skating rinks even 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 gonna have to make sure i don't have one of those parking spots where water piles 3/4 of the way up the tire Good idea. Don't want to have to chip your car/tires out of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 988mb low on the EURO near Fond du Lac at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 maybe some of the flood waters will drain into the cavernous potholes that are opening up everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seems like it's been forever since we had liquid precip. Actually kind of miss it in some weird way. Hard to believe this is coming with the way it looks out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 But December 27, 2008 saw temps soar into the 60s...that is an example of a torch.We were having such a winter wonderland prior to that too. Wave after wave. Then one came in as snow, turned to pingers, freezing rain, and then...rain. and was all downhill from there. Still bitter about that one since it was perfect Christmas weather up until literally midnight, Christmas Eve morning... Not quite flash freeze but 12-12-10 here went from hours of heavy rain to heavy snow and dropped into the teens by that night. The freeways were absolute skating rinks even 2 days later.Yeah, that was BAD. I got my truck stuck out in front of Ford Field in all the ice while I was on my way to get tickets to the "Minnesota Snowbowl" after their dome collapsed and they decided to play the game in Detroit. The way the snow was plastered to everything days later was really awesome looking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 maybe some of the flood waters will drain into the cavernous potholes that are opening up everywhere. It is getting pretty bad. On 39 coming out of Rockford, you may as well drive through the median. Its smoother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 EURO puts down quite a bit of rain to in the general areas as the GFS, GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Took a CoCoRaHS-style core sample this morning. 2.58" at Valpo before any new snow today. Supposedly 3.85" in Hanna, SW of LaPorte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Took a CoCoRaHS-style core sample this morning. 2.58" at Valpo before any new snow today. Supposedly 3.85" in Hanna, SW of LaPorte. Two words: ice jams! The rivers will be overwhelmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Took a CoCoRaHS-style core sample this morning. 2.58" at Valpo before any new snow today. Supposedly 3.85" in Hanna, SW of LaPorte.I have taken numerous core samples and they range from 2.8-3.8" here (even when you measure the same depth). D TX said ware in snowpack in SE MI is 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Two words: ice jams! The rivers will be overwhelmed. This is not good at all. One thing that may limit things somewhat over northern IL southern WI and southern lower MI is that if the GFS is close (hopefully) with 2m temps, they only top out in the 40s. Farther south though, where well into the 50s is likely, snowmelt will be further accelerated. So while flooding will be a big problem north with the forecast rain amounts, places farther south and east that may end up slightly lower on the rainfall side could see similarly bad problems with the more rapid snowmelt. Also any intense convection in those areas would up the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I mentioned this in the southern ON thread ... the most costly impacts from rain and snowmelt on Thursday would likely not be river flooding but roof collapse risk for flat-roofed structures such as small apartment buildings and commercial areas, and large-scale urban ponding as water collects in parking lots and underpasses. The snow load on flat-roofed buildings is probably already quite large but add the weight of the rainfall to that and I'm sure there will be some widespread damage. People would have some time between the last of the snow on Wednesday and the onset of the rainfall to clear away some of the roof snow, as for large parking lots, like shopping malls, clearing storm drains might save some trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I've seen reports of about 3.5" liquid in snowpack here in Michiana. Going to be worrisome if we get over an inch of rain and warmer temps this Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I mentioned this in the southern ON thread ... the most costly impacts from rain and snowmelt on Thursday would likely not be river flooding but roof collapse risk for flat-roofed structures such as small apartment buildings and commercial areas, and large-scale urban ponding as water collects in parking lots and underpasses. The snow load on flat-roofed buildings is probably already quite large but add the weight of the rainfall to that and I'm sure there will be some widespread damage. People would have some time between the last of the snow on Wednesday and the onset of the rainfall to clear away some of the roof snow, as for large parking lots, like shopping malls, clearing storm drains might save some trouble. Very good point. Hopefully with the sun and wind the next two days some of that snow can be melted and sublimated away. Of course it takes longer on flat roofs. NAM has heaviest axis of rain over the IL river valley towards NW OH. If this storm bombs out like the EURO showed, it could go further west and bring even more warm air up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM has 992 mb low over Rockford at 21z Thursday. IWX mentioning concerns with flooding issues in AFD, general thunder, and SPC mention of possible svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not a good axis position to have the heaviest rain ... right into SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This may wind up being a 1913 level event here. With the amount of ice in the rivers and nearly 4" of liquid in snow on the ground holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Need a wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Need a wagons south would be the coup of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Need a wagons south No, no...we don't want or need it here either. Hoping for an underachiever for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Very good point. Hopefully with the sun and wind the next two days some of that snow can be melted and sublimated away. Of course it takes longer on flat roofs. NAM has heaviest axis of rain over the IL river valley towards NW OH. If this storm bombs out like the EURO showed, it could go further west and bring even more warm air up. I miss the old Geos Seriously though...with the water stored in our snowpack...a bit of sublimation means next to nothing. Need to avoid the heaviest rain and warmest temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 would be the coup of the season 18z GFS ensembles showing a farther SE solution compared to the 18z op gfs http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/f78.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Note....much of the rain falls while the temp rises through the 30s, so a huge majority of that rain is with temp below 40F. It then spikes up into the mid-40s in the evening before crashing overnight, per GFS, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Note....much of the rain falls while the temp rises through the 30s, so a huge majority of that rain is with temp below 40F. It then spikes up into the mid-40s in the evening before crashing overnight, per GFS, here. Wouldn't be surprised to see flash freeze warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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