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Feb 13-14 Storm Banter Thread


ORH_wxman

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I agree, that was a true bomb and nearly perfect for SNE. this pales in comparison, not even in the ballpark to compare really.

 

 

Very rare event meteorologically...with how rapidly it deepened. We see some of these storms deepen very quickly like 1/12/11 (which was sick) and 2/8/13....but as quick as those bombed out (and they did bomb quickly), they still PALED in comparison to 12/9/05 for the rate of deepening. 12/9/05 was almost like a micro-cane in winter. It dumped like 18mb in 3 hours. It was something like 1012mb south of LI and then crossed the canal around 995mb IIRC.

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warmer slower through 48.. juicy

zwyts's Photozwyts

Yesterday, 01:01 PM

warmer...deform sets up well west of DC

Ian's PhotoIan

Yesterday, 01:02 PM

low less impressive.. and kinda ugh after the front end thump

zwyts's Photozwyts

Yesterday, 01:04 PM

through 60...~1.2 for DCA..more west....warmish...deform sets up well west

 

It wasn;t as good as 00z for them but they still got shellacked decently. Some here made it sound like they got a crap event on the 12z run.

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So, sounds as though there was a bit of doubt about the GFS run, that it appeared a bit "funky"? So out of the 0z runs we have so far tonight, which has the most logical evolution for tomorrow?

 

ha!  thats the million dollar question...close your eyes, spin around, shoot some jager, and point...

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So, sounds as though there was a bit of doubt about the GFS run, that it appeared a bit "funky"? So out of the 0z runs we have so far tonight, which has the most logical evolution for tomorrow?

 

Funky is right. At 03z, the 10C line was barely off the coast of SC, yet surface temps are around 34 right on the shore now and the freezing line on the GFS is way inland. And a buoy less than 75 miles east shows a temp of 67. This gradient is what is driving mets nuts tonight.

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Harv not budging ...

Im not sold ...but he did project decent confidence

Yeah, eh idk. Maybe euro comes in like the RGEM, maybe it's in line with harv's thoughts, most likely this is a nowcast type situation for any certainty. Sort of peeved I probably won't get to measure whatever I do get tomorrow because classes will likely be held.

At this point I hope the thump can over perform just enough to create one or those nightmares where they try and send kids home early during heavy snow.

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