ag3 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Any mixing for NE Jersey this run? Very little if any, during the dry slot. Same as NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 700mb and 850mb lows track SE enough for NYC NW to get heavier snow on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It was good to know it didn't go further west and we're starting to get a good idea on the actual track though additional fine tuning will still need to occur tomorrow and probably into early Wednesday. I don't think it'll go any further west given the kicker and where it tracks prior to it arriving to our locales. I think most models take it near OBX, which is huge for us. Hopefully there are slight ticks east tomorrow so we can all be happy. A blend of the Euro/GGEM/GFS looks appropriate at this time to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow totals aren't important but they are at least 6" for everyone and that's being conservative. Time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 982 MB just off the coast of S DE ..SNOW MAP Eastern PA Southeast PA NW NJ Central NJ MD N VA N DE & NYC & LI & SNE all are 12 + inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to my wb maps. The 850s only go above zero on LI between hrs 66 and 72 then crash again. Most up the precip looks to fall frozen before any change over. Surface temps in the low 30s rising to the mid 30s verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still looking at wed morning start time at around 2-6 am or is it trending later now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Starting to look like KNYC goes over 50" for the season on Thursday. aren't we at 42"? I don't see breaking the 5 0 a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to my wb maps. The 850s only goes above zero on LI between hrs 66 and 72 then crash again. Most up the precip looks to fall frozen before any change over. Surface temps in the low 30s rising to the mid 30s verbatim. Yep, everybody does very well this run. Even places that mix or changeover for a period of time. I'd hate to be out in Central PA though. Some models have zilch and now the euro comes in and gives them a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 700mb and 850mb lows track SE enough for NYC NW to get heavier snow on the Euro. Looking at the mid level lows on the GFS earlier, the 850mb low was in a great spot. 75 miles give or take NW of the 850mb low should be golden for some of the heaviest stuff, which is why at this range I still can't buy the SFC depictions somewhat. I'd rather look at 500mb/700/850 and take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still looking at wed morning start time at around 2-6 am or is it trending later now? Not Wed morning, very late wednesday night/early thursday morning. Roughly 48 hours from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 will this be a blizzard warning criteria type of storm for nyc metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 will this be a blizzard warning criteria type of storm for nyc metro? Not really. The pressure gradient isn't intense enough for a legitimate Blizzard. It'll be a very close call for the areas close to the center of the SLP with the least mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 will this be a blizzard warning criteria type of storm for nyc metro? I don't see such a situation occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, DC gets crushed with near 2 feet of snow based off the snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, DC gets crushed with near 2 feet of snow based off the snowmaps. I'd love to see them get it, been awhile there for them. (As long as we get ours too that is LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 78 984 off Cape Cod... CCB draining back down over NNJ... thermal profiles have absolutely crashed This was a great Euro run... for one simple fact- it went no further west Yes, great point! I don't foresee anymore major shifts west. (Well who knows) Was it just me or was the euro a tad faster this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, DC gets crushed with near 2 feet of snow based off the snowmaps. Yea I was just over on their boards. Good for them honestly, most excitement there for prob around 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, DC gets crushed with near 2 feet of snow based off the snowmaps. Yeah its interesting they do so well down in DC/VA. Not that we don't do well too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, great point! I don't foresee anymore major shifts west. (Well who knows) Was it just me or was the euro a tad faster this run? I wasn't around earlier today for the 12z runs so I'm not exactly sure, maybe someone else could answer that. But as to the west trend, I'm hoping at this point that that would be the furthest west we will go with this, like I was discussing earlier I just can't see it coming MUCH further west with that kicker at this point (of course wobbles either way are inherent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wasn't around earlier today for the 12z runs so I'm not exactly sure, maybe someone else could answer that. But as to the west trend, I'm hoping at this point that that would be the furthest west we will go with this, like I was discussing earlier I just can't see it coming MUCH further west with that kicker at this point (of course wobbles either way are inherent). The "kicker" idea can be tricky though, occasionally the models have mistaken those Lakes Features as kickers and in reality they dig and actually pull the storm more west like the january 2000 event did...I don't think that will happen here as of now though as that system looks too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah its interesting they do so well down in DC/VA. Not that we don't do well too I want everyone to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The "kicker" idea can be tricky though, occasionally the models have mistaken those Lakes Features as kickers and in reality they dig and actually pull the storm more west like the january 2000 event did...I don't think that will happen here as of now though as that system looks too progressive Agreed, I think if it were to dig like you said it could buckle the flow out ahead of it and cause this to come further inland, especially the quicker the southern trough turns negative. This is something we should certainly keep an eye on because northern stream s/w's have been tricky in the modeling all winter long to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 im colorblind I can't read these maps how much for long island? sorry to ask Ignore the poorly drawn map: 2/11/1983 was a 20 inch storm for N. Jersey, NYC and L.I....blizzard warnings were issued that Friday afternoon and produced some of the most intense snowfall rates ever seen in these parts. Air temps were a good deal different than they will be during this storm though; generally hovering around 20 F for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ignore the poorly drawn map: 2/11/1983 was a 20 inch storm for N. Jersey, NYC and L.I....blizzard warnings were issued that Friday afternoon and produced some of the most intense snowfall rates ever seen in these parts. Air temps were a good deal different than they will be during this storm though; generally hovering around 20 F for the duration. Snow came in like a wall immedt 2in hr in early afternoon, within 30 minutes school shut down. It was a Friday afternoon. remember it like it was yesterday. Magnificent storm. by around the 11p newscast I believe CPK was already over a foot and still accumilating ( I remember mr G's face sadly ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sref are wetter than 21z...1" line into Nassau - The slp is little stronger and a tick west but the spread is heavy to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anybody have a high res 00Z Euro total accum snow and/or (hopefully and) QPF map for the northeast? I saw one earlier today for the 12Z and it was excellent, but it came from someone in the mid atlantic blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD150 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014VALID FEB 11/0000 UTC THRU FEB 14/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLYAFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEANOR A BLEND OF 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF POSITIONCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING ANRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARDDISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TODAYTHAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT THEY HAVE MADE AWHOLESALE SHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WESTSIDE OF THE LATEST LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...INITIALIZED12Z/10...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUST EAST OF THE ECMWFMEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS PRECLUDES USE OFTHE 00Z CMC WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS.THE 00Z UKMET IS LIKELY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH HOW FARSOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENDS UP WEST OFITS 12Z RUN WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST. THE00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK EAST SLIGHTLY FROM ITS 12ZRUN...20-40 MILES...ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT IS NEARLYIDENTICAL TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 00ZECMWF IS STILL A BIT WEST OF THE 12Z EC MEAN NEAR NEW ENGLAND.GIVEN THESE ADJUSTMENTS...STILL FEEL THE 00Z GFS IS A TAD TOO FAREAST...AND TOO WEAK...PERHAPS RELATED TO POSSIBLE CONVECTIVEFEEDBACK ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THEPREVIOUS PREFERENCE CONTINUES...BUT TO INCLUDE THE LATEST 00ZMODEL SUITE...THE POSITION OF THE BLENDED 00Z ECMWF/GFS APPEARSMOST USABLE...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE 00Z ECMWF http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd OPC look in 48hrs 980mb Atlantic City wow just wow http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml notice the clusters are on the east side of this track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A little more digging through 24 on the nam. Southern stream is slightly more energetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A little more digging through 24 on the nam. Southern stream is slightly more energetic Agreed, looks like it wants to develop a bit west of its 0z location downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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