PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The UK was due to have a wacky run like that, it almost always has one or two. Either way, it looks like a lot of precip falls as snow before getting too warm. Probably 75% of us would go to sleet/rain if that verified. 75 perc , no The QPF a head would be sizeable , that panel you go over , but with that center at AC if it ran to islip then ur done , but if it heads to the BM , that line comes Due East . Do you forget 2011 , Some on LI got a ft in 6 hours with a similar set up as we flipped back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll gladly take that as it seems even the worse scenario could still drop 6"+ of snow before any changeover if not a lot more due to insane dynamics before we changeover. I'll be ecstatic if the Euro shifts a bit further east. The closed 500 low means that unless this goes up the Hudson River we all should get a period of snow also as it fades NE. If we get 8" of snow on crazy dynamics and then rain/dryslot for a while, I really can't complain. That's what this looks to do unless it does something absolutely crazy no model has yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would rather take my chances with a deep wrapped up low close to the coast than a sheared or weaker low when dealing with marginal air/dynamics. So we flip to sleet for a few hours at worst. I still think even with the low making a pass close to acy we hold on to snow for the city and north central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM farther west and slightly more amplified through 48 hr. 00z Thu surface low is just off the GA Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Considering the UKIE was just offshore NC at 60 hours, it seems that it went due north from 60-72. This means that the UKIE did not have that west of a longitude until it approached our latitude -- perhaps that adds credence to the heavy front-end-dump theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM at 48hrs...looks slightly better than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Considering that inverted trough along the east coast, I would expect precipitation to be further north than the GGEM has at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAVGEM at 60hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian is the best case scenario for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian is the best case scenario for everyone here. Ah I posted the 12z before I saw ur 15z , I thought it was tucked in looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still ripping through the end of the best lift. Awesome. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014021100/I_nw_g1_EST_2014021100_065.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow , beautiful GGEM run for all. Northern NJ-NE NJ Really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian has 13 hours of moderate to heavy snow before a dry slot, followed by additional snow as the system wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM looks great, possible mixing issues for south shore of LI and ENJ but a MECS for most anyway. we're playing with fire here but that's what makes this all so exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still ripping through the end of the best lift. Awesome. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014021100/I_nw_g1_EST_2014021100_065.png looks a little too close for southern half of long island, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM, looks to be a blend of the NAM- GFS and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian is the best case scenario for everyone here. Interesting twist....as it takes the low from almost due north from OBX to southern Delmarva, then turns it ne/ene in time to keep all mostly/all snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks a little too close for southern half of long island, no? Yes...hard to stay all snow there with a big wrapped up storm like this. Always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Interesting twist....as it takes the low from almost due north from OBX to southern Delmarva, then turns it ne/ene in time to keep all mostly/all snow.... Its all about the kicker in the mid-west…ukmet waits to kick around sandy hook…ggem does it off the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which model has the best score in three days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAVGEM is an insane at h500. closes it so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the Euro trends nicely, that would make the entire 00z suite in our favor aside from the NAM. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Did anyone see the UKMET 78 hour to see where SLP wound up after it was at AC at 72 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That would be pretty cool to get an initial pounding, dry slot, and several more hours of wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian has 13 hours of moderate to heavy snow before a dry slot, followed by additional snow as the system wraps up. It pretty much crushes the entire east coast, ideal track for almost everyone up the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 It pretty much crushes the entire east coast, ideal track for almost everyone up the I-95 corridor. Yeah..and the storm is stronger this run so its picking up on stronger lift and dynamic cooling. Precip totals just eyeballing the crappy maps I have are well over 1" liquid from EWR eastward..probably a good bit more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not worth much...but the NAMGEM actually looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Even for the few areas that mix and changeover, there would be a huge front end burst that would easily drop 6"+ if not 8"+ on the Canadian. Although the track is a little far west for all snow everywhere, the lift and dynamic cooling make up for it. Remember, 1/26/11 wasn't all snow for everyone and yet the heaviest totals were in some of the areas that changed over and dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not worth much...but the NAMGEM actually looks interesting. nvg10.500.060.namer.gif nvg10.500.078.namer.gif Has quite a robust PNA spike as the storm closes off, really cool to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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