Winterhawk Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have to show some ignorance here; tried to find more info on "KU snowstorm" Phil's referring to in Forecast Discussion but didn't find a good reference. Anybody got a easy explanation for what it is? ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still learning but isn't the Euro dependable this close in? As much as I want snow unfortunately I'm with packbacker and widre with this. It just doesn't feel right. Oh well, it has been fun to track though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have to show some ignorance here; tried to find more info on "KU snowstorm" Phil's referring to in Forecast Discussion but didn't find a good reference. Anybody got a easy explanation for what it is? ty https://www.google.com/search?q=kocin+uccellini+storm&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS377US377&oq=kocin+uccellini+storm&aqs=chrome..69i57.3258j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So, Pack, are we all frozen then? Looks like it to me, verbatim. Yep, it looks like we hover around 27-28F but rise to 30F on 12z Thursday but are 850's drop and looks like we got to sleet/snow mix. The GFS looked kind of dry early on, compared to other models, verbatim it's probably 0.5-0.75" of frzn and 1-2" of snow, roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still learning but isn't the Euro dependable this close in? As much as I want snow unfortunately I'm with packbacker and widre with this. It just doesn't feel right. Oh well, it has been fun to track though! Euro has higher skill. All models have certain biases that forecasters have to take into account when making a forecast. But generally, the Euro is superior. Most of the precip will probably be frozen for us. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymcilwoods Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I live in Durham and know that all storms are either too east or too west. It's always entertaining watching these things build up only to never materialize. Two or three a year it seems with the exact same results each time. If and when it ever does snow people really will be caught off guard here given just how rarely these situations seem to play out as expected days going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 https://www.google.com/search?q=kocin+uccellini+storm&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS377US377&oq=kocin+uccellini+storm&aqs=chrome..69i57.3258j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 Was hoping that was it; thank you Sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still learning but isn't the Euro dependable this close in? As much as I want snow unfortunately I'm with packbacker and widre with this. It just doesn't feel right. Oh well, it has been fun to track though! Yep. But so are the other models, once they are within 24-36 hours they are all fairly close and we are getting to that point. And right now the SLP is only off on the models by 25 miles are so, Euro still west, GFS still east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK looks the same, to me at least, we have a good SLP track now, now it all depends on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RDU snow shield in full effect, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If this turns into an all rain thing here after things were looking like a high impact winter storm, I might just have to quit following these winter storm threats. Too much time and energy wasted when you don't get anything good in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If this turns into an all rain thing here after things were looking like a high impact winter storm, I might just have to quit following these winter storm threats. Too much time and energy wasted when you don't get anything good in return. RGEM says we flip to rain, very Euro like, it does show 2-3" of snow, 0.5" of sleet, 0.5" of frzn and than 0.5" of rain. It would be one of those where we wake up Thursday morning and we would never know we had a winter storm, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It does my heart good to see Phil going all in with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro's done gone richard sherman on the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wife said it's coming down good at the house. Should have worked from home today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not surprising, PGV will get more snow from todays event than RDU will tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's hoping the 12z EURO holds with the colder trend and holding mixing issues at bay near CLT. I don't want to be ungrateful for a nice 4-5 inch event, but MAN, I don't want to underperform on such a great setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wife said it's coming down good at the house. Should have worked from home today. FMP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RDU snow shield in full effect, LOLflurries and occasional light snow west of aprx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honeygrl Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Athens, Ga here, close to the Madison County line. It's been mostly snow here since I got up at 6am. Alternates between ginormous fluffy flakes and sleet. Roads are still good but it's accumulating on the grass and steps and cars. Not even a half inch of it so far but I'm just happy it hasn't turned to rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM says we flip to rain, very Euro like, it does show 2-3" of snow, 0.5" of sleet, 0.5" of frzn and than 0.5" of rain. It would be one of those where we wake up Thursday morning and we would never know we had a winter storm, LOL. Seriously, after all this hype and now we're at the day of the event and it looks more and more like nothing for us, except on the GFS. This would be 3 years of this mess. Always seems to be someway for us to end up not getting anything or for it to be way overhyped. Just sick of it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK goes all blizzard on the MA and NE…Crazy deep, can't imagine what the Euro is going to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think once you analyze the obs verbatim, you'll see the ECMWF was on crack verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If this turns into an all rain thing here after things were looking like a high impact winter storm, I might just have to quit following these winter storm threats. Too much time and energy wasted when you don't get anything good in return.please, oh god, please rain in wake forest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, after all this hype and now we're at the day of the event and it looks more and more like nothing for us, except on the GFS. This would be 3 years of this mess. Always seems to be someway for us to end up not getting anything or for it to be way overhyped. Just sick of it now. Now there's the Brick we know! Welcome back, my man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has a chance to be a 100 year storm for me, but not in the traditional way. In just a 24 hour period I have a good shot at exceeding the total average snowfall of Waycross for 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, after all this hype and now we're at the day of the event and it looks more and more like nothing for us, except on the GFS. This would be 3 years of this mess. Always seems to be someway for us to end up not getting anything or for it to be way overhyped. Just sick of it now. Welcome to the dark side, we have been waiting for you. Get used to it, it's the new climo for our area, CLT to GSO and points west will easily get a foot, some 18", MA will get 18-24", NE will get 18-24", historic event, just not for us. But it will be good to watch our friends west of here get clobbered. Can't wait to update the snow totals thread, we will be at 50% of clime and everyone else will be 150-200%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If this turns into an all rain thing here after things were looking like a high impact winter storm, I might just have to quit following these winter storm threats. Too much time and energy wasted when you don't get anything good in return. The models are great to look at but at this point we really need to focus on what the mterologist are saying. I've said this before, I've gained a lot of respect for RAH and how they have handeled that last few events. They have more knowledge on how the CAD will affect our weather than I think the models can depict. The CAD can cause strange trends from models; whereas the 850s (and even the storm centers) can trend a little west while surface temps trend east. THE GENERAL SETUP FOR THIS STORM WILL CONSIST A STRONG HIGH SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...WITH CLASSIC CAD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS COLD AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pack, looks like a solid deform band moving through our area on the Ukie. Nice! Verbatim, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ugh, snow to our south. I've been a student at state for 7 months now and my pessimism has gone through the roof. I see where other posters around here get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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