burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can anyone comment on the euro ensemble mean? How does the track compare to the operational which ticked east last night? I'm noticing that the higher resolution (rgem, nam4k, etc...) models are coming in with a more of a mixing issue in areas where the lower resolution models are showing snow. Am I correct in assuming that the higher resolution would make them better in picking up on warm layers in the column? Euro ENS looked pretty lockstep with the Euro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All of us in the northwest metro seem to be in the dividing line for everything. My gut tells me this will be mostly sleet since we never seem to get much snow from wedges. I have my chainsaw sharp, plenty of gas, and a bathtub ready to be filled with water if the freezing rain comes in. Hopefully Cheeze is right and this ends up being sledding time instead of no power time. It's 32 and snowing at a moderate clip now but mostly slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just have a minute before judging a spelling bee here (the word for today is S-L-E-E-T-EIEIO ... Dagnabit!) To my bleary eye, looking like the Euro nudged a bit colder, but similar track, NAM inched to the west and GFS to the East with their respective SLPs. One of those two will be proven wrong by HRRR & Co. Gonna be a long day. Here's hoping the folks in my NOTW see plenty of Round 1 snow ... 'cause it looks ugly hereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I need to read the GSP update discussion to check on what blend they are going with during the overnight update. On you edit below, I assume west of Shelby is all snow ? It literally only looks good for AVL west. No thanks. Edit: Look at maps on the AmWx models looks like for Shelby to CLT it's about 6-8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet. Anyone west of GSO gets around 4 inches of snow and has major mixing issues according to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM continues to absolutely hammer my area with ZR. Models are showing a nice cooling trend still. Will be a fun today and nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quick recap of the last model runs for Greensboro. 6z GFS - 12.7" all snow 6z NAM - 6.8" snow, .57" sleet, .19" freezing rain 0z Euro - 14" all snow 03 SREF - 9.87" mean snowfall (I'm sure that some of the ensemble members have mixing but can't determine using plumes) You can see what the mixing will do for your totals. Also, I believe that most of the models are coming in with around 1.25" of precip. If you stay are all snow, you could easily be looking at 10-12" based on the qpf. I'm guessing that most areas east of the mountains will at least turn to sleet for a couple of hours before turning back to snow and getting a few more inches of great deformation band snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newcomb68 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quick recap of the last model runs for Greensboro. 6z GFS - 12.7" all snow 6z NAM - 6.8" snow, .57" sleet, .19" freezing rain 0z Euro - 14" all snow 03 SREF - 9.87" mean snowfall (I'm sure that some of the ensemble members have mixing but can't determine using plumes) You can see what the mixing will do for your totals. Also, I believe that most of the models are coming in with around 1.25" of precip. If you stay are all snow, you could easily be looking at 10-12" based on the qpf. I'm guessing that most areas east of the mountains will at least turn to sleet for a couple of hours before turning back to snow and getting a few more inches of great deformation band snow at the end. I'll stick with the GFS lol 6z GFS - 12.7" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF mean is now 10". Euro looks to be 13 or 14" at CLT. I think I'll ride those two to glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Great disco overnight folks... I see wsw are going up and the euro held it course. Should be a fun day at work for everyone as you try to track:) GSP has cut into the totals around: wander why gsp thinks less snow . most models are still showing anywhere from 8-12 for wnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CAE qpf went through the roof not to mention the zl avg is now over 2.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1.59" of Freezing Rain on the Bufkit data from the 6Z nam for I-285 @ I-20 on the westside perimeter.. Oh my god. How accurate is this? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kfty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wander why gsp thinks less snow . most models are still showing anywhere from 8-12 for wnc i think they may have just adjusted it...they increased totals for the ne ga area...so far this morning is overperforming here from what i expected. hope this continues through the rest of this event, cos if it does the se is going to be getting one heck of a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 wander why gsp thinks less snow . most models are still showing anywhere from 8-12 for wnc More than likely they are seeing mixing issues. NAM and GFS both came in warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Raysweather.com just released their snowmap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Raysweather.com just released their snowmap: Looks like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokinjoe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some CAE meteorologists are still calling for a half inch of zl. Confusing as I can't find a model that is saying what they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Raysweather.com just released their snowmap: He's usually spot on with his predictions. Folks in the High Country love him because they have no other meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll gladly take the 10 inches or more he is predicting. Couldn't see earlier but that burst of snow left a nice dusting on the ground this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some CAE meteorologists are still calling for a half inch of zl. Confusing as I can't find a model that is saying what they are. Mets here calling for .25 to .5 generally with the addition of "maybe more." GFS is showing 2.44" of zr for KFLO. NAM is showing 1.09. So they're all going conservative. History suggests going conservative is not a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks for posting Calc.. As of now, ray's site is down..lol Looks like a good call. I also like how he left the door open for more than 10+. That is in line with the Euro. Raysweather.com just released their snowmap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We have moderate snow at gsp right now. Has been snowing for about 1 and half hours. A little sooner than the models thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems like the trends over the past couple of days have been to come in a little warmer aloft during the nightly model runs then push east a bit during the daytime runs. I believe that is right anyway. We are getting within the 24-36 hour window before the main show starts so it's about time to start looking and the short range models and see how they are lining up compared to what the bigger models showed at the early stages. THat should give us an idea of where the battle lines will setup tomorrow. For us in the CLT area just a slight jog east would put his in the zone that typically gets the best rates as usually you want to be just west of the sleet zone to jackpot. Either way good luck folks stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 IMBY total posts will not be tolerated today. Don't try us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This might go in the obs thread but dps are starting to fall finally.... my DP in concord has gone from 30 at 5am to 19 now, pretty nice decline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 IMBY total posts will not be tolerated today. Don't try us. Indeed It seems the 06 gfs gives CAE 2.76" of zr and the 06 nam says 1.77" of zr.......wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Indeed It seems the 06 gfs gives CAE 2.76" of zr and the 06 nam says 1.77" of zr.......wow ugh i cant imagine that much ice. i only know of a few storms that have produced that much ice (US and Canada) - i would hope that maybe if its coming down at a heavy rate that should help inhibit at least some of that from accumulating. it seems like we are getting a decent snow pack today for the wedge - at least n ga through the upstate so i would think the wedge will be a stout one. decent ne winds here already this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md0081.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0720 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...NWRNSC...SWRN NCCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 111320Z - 111815ZSUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THEEASTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 18Z WHILE GRADUALLYDIMINISHING...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONSTOWARDS 18Z.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT 13Z ACROSS MUCHOF THE SERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSSTHE N-CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWERMS VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TOSUPPORT THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION AREA. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THISAREA OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN NEAR- OR BELOW-FREEZINGWET-BULB TEMPERATURES...AND WHERE AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF 800-700 MBFRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS LED TO HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION.OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CONTINUED MIX OF FREEZINGRAIN /RATES OF 0.05 INCHES/3 HRS/ AND SLEET ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OFTHE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS NRN PORTIONS. SNOWFALLRATES OF ONE INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER MESOSCALEBANDING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA...NWRN SC AND FARSWRN NC.WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD SEE DIMINISHED PRECIP RATESAT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BUNTING.. 02/11/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not often I see CAE use this strong of wording...... .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ANDESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT SHOWINGSTRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE GFS AND NAM MODELTIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS ARE CLOSE AND SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN. DANGEROUS ICEACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HAVE TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO WPCQPF THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSFORECAST.AVERAGE MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WHICH IS ACONCERN...SO HAVE RAISED ICING FORECAST TO 0.5 TO 1.00 INCH ICINGACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THERE IS A POSSIBLY OF EVENGREATER ICE AMOUNTS IF QPF IS REALIZED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDSWEDNESDAY MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ICEACCUMULATION. THE ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON TREES...LIMBS ANDPOWER LINES COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHERGUSTS WILL LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY.THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTTHURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES UP ALONG THEMID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.USED THE LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BENOTED THAT THE CHARNICK SCHEME PRODUCED LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THEAREA ON WEDNESDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FWIW- Just watched JB's video this morning he still thinks it's off Wilmington but cuts inside Cape hatt. has Central and Western half of NC in 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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