wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Honestly, I hope a southern solution wins out since it would be a lot more interesting. Euro ensemble mean looks like it has the slp on the southern tip of Lake Michigan which is usually a favorable position for us. I'll go with that for sure, with snow on the ground at least there's almost zero potential for rain, and if the low passes south of Chicago, should be mostly snow at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You moved? I work in the Loop, live on the north side. <2" tomorrow and then cement potential on Monday. cool...was expecting DAB tomorrow and rain Monday so I guess things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 with snow on the ground at least there's almost zero potential for rain. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Saw about 4 flakes early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now I got 1-2" in for tomorrow night. Snow and sleet for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like a quick half inch to inch of powder tomorrow, and then a mix bag of freezing rain/sleet Monday. Maybe another dusting to inch at tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 i'm way out of the loop You moved? LAF just took a commanding lead in snowfall over FWA and MBY today. Swing and a miss here. Valentines Day fringe job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 IND and FWA are at odds with the Monday system. IND AT FIRST THIS EVENT LOOKED LIKE A MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN COMINGIN WARMER THESE PAST FEW RUNS. WENT WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FWA ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND MANY ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT A MORE PROLIFIC SOLUTION...A STRONGERSYSTEM WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED COLDER MONDAY WILL MORE SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4G/KG...BUT OF SHORT DURATION. IF THE STRONGER SOLUTION PREVAILS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING. I vote FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 IND and FWA are at odds with the Monday system. IND AT FIRST THIS EVENT LOOKED LIKE A MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WARMER THESE PAST FEW RUNS. WENT WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FWA ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND MANY ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT A MORE PROLIFIC SOLUTION...A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED COLDER MONDAY WILL MORE SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4G/KG...BUT OF SHORT DURATION. IF THE STRONGER SOLUTION PREVAILS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING. I vote FWA. Actually they both are right. IND it would be warmer with a stronger system, but in turn a stronger system will dig more and pass over or just south of IWX's CWA. Honestly though it might be a close call for IWX, especially across the southern parts of their CWA. As it stands right now I like their northern areas and across Southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LAF just took a commanding lead in snowfall over FWA and MBY today. Swing and a miss here. Wouldn't call 2.4" a commanding lead over YBY. 2.7" was my final for here today. Totally didn't expect that when I got up this morning. IND and FWA are at odds with the Monday system. IND AT FIRST THIS EVENT LOOKED LIKE A MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EVENT...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WARMER THESE PAST FEW RUNS. WENT WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FWA ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND MANY ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUPPORT A MORE PROLIFIC SOLUTION...A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED COLDER MONDAY WILL MORE SNOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4G/KG...BUT OF SHORT DURATION. IF THE STRONGER SOLUTION PREVAILS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING. I vote FWA. Ha, me too. I guess I haven't been paying as much attention to this system, but from what I've seen, I thought the trends for here were colder. Not that I buy any wintry scenario for LAF right now, but you never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 looks like parachutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs for YYZ for the D3-4 storm aren't bullish at all. Mean = 3" with no clown members either (max is about 4.5"). Way less aggressive than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 0z NAM looks like it will be a bit north/stronger of the 18z run, maybe back near the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 0z NAM still very interesting for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What a pleasant snow... Went in for Mexican dinner at 630. Come out 830 looked like another inch... close to 3 total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Weird looking snow map probably due to the iffy thermal profiles but do to the mid level height falls/dynamics/UVV's I'd lean to snow as the precip type in the marginal areas, wherever those end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs for YYZ for the D3-4 storm aren't bullish at all. Mean = 3" with no clown members either (max is about 4.5"). Way less aggressive than the EURO. 0z NAM coming in hot. Wouldn't be surprised if the updated SREF's up totals. Could be pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Weird looking snow map probably due to the iffy thermal profiles but do to the mid level height falls/dynamics/UVV's I'd lean to snow as the precip type in the marginal areas, wherever those end up. nam snow mon.gif That looks great, moisture probably a bit overdone, but I guess you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Neat set up for LAF on the 0z NAM. Surface temps stay below freezing...but 850-900 temps torch, and then crash. Kitchen sink storm. Would be kinda cool if that actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 With the first wave. Not impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 With the first wave. Not impressive. wave1_021514.png And because you have turned Tropical on us, you won't be posting maps for the Monday storm I'm sure, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And because you have turned Tropical on us, you won't be posting maps for the Monday storm I'm sure, right? I've posted some today. I just wasn't fast enough to get both maps from Skilling. Showed up to 7" in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I've posted some today. I just wasn't fast enough to get both maps from Skilling. Showed up to 7" in Wisconsin. Just giving you a hard time because of your low predictions for this storm, I say Waukegan will see 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 0z NAM coming in hot. Wouldn't be surprised if the updated SREF's up totals. Could be pretty interesting. 0z GFS coming in not. Although it's a loner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 With the first wave. Not impressive. wave1_021514.png Surprisingly bullish on second wave(storm) Monday....quote "looking more like all snow.." Again, not the first time a warm up began with a thump snow. Worse, sounded like our warm up will be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Neat set up for LAF on the 0z NAM. Surface temps stay below freezing...but 850-900 temps torch, and then crash. Kitchen sink storm. Would be kinda cool if that actually verified. Looks like some ice to snow on that run. With any luck maybe we will get a consensus on the 00z runs (yeah right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now there's no plain rain for LAF on the 00z GFS. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now there's no plain rain for LAF on the 00z GFS. Baby steps. GGEM is close...looks like it barely changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Surprisingly bullish on second wave(storm) Monday....quote "looking more like all snow.." Again, not the first time a warm up began with a thump snow. Worse, sounded like our warm up will be brief. Brief, but intense by the way he made it sound. 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Weird looking snow map probably due to the iffy thermal profiles but do to the mid level height falls/dynamics/UVV's I'd lean to snow as the precip type in the marginal areas, wherever those end up. nam snow mon.gif Agree...Looks like cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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