Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 LAF is the new Mt. Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LAF is the new Mt. Geos. Mt. Geos has been dead for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LAF is the new Mt. Geos. We should do that for every winter. Someone gets a Mt. Geos traveling trophy or something. But hey, luck has been on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM should be another good run for here with the Monday system. Slightly colder/south through 66hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mt. Geos has been dead for weeks now.Really is.ORD and LAF are or will be ahead by tomorrow. Heck, even I might have more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 semi jackpot on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM almost looks like all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM almost looks like all snow here. Wouldn't be surprised to flirt with some mix there but yeah I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to flirt with some mix there but yeah I'll take it. Sorta hard to believe it and would be quite a turn of events. Would like to get some other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sorta hard to believe it and would be quite a turn of events. Would like to get some other model support. Definitely want to see some more support. Running it through BUFKIT there is an hour or two of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 semi jackpot on the 18z nam Wow, literally. Can only go downhill from there I'm afraid, but nice trends for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 any precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well just had a fun drive home from work. Roads even State Route 35 are snow covered and could barely see anything in front of me but made it home safe. Knew this thing must have stayed farther north when i saw at around 12:30 that the row of counties just south of me upgraded to a warning. Maybe an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM almost looks like all snow here. It's overdue for a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Lol, yeah quite a few places beating me now! Weekend wave And then Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well LOT going 2-4" tomorrow, sorry but I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Go figure the Monday wave will now miss south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z GFS really weak with wave 1. Little juicer south with wave 2. Marginal temps from IL/WI stateline southwards. Slop fest to rain on Monday, especially over SW WI over to NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 15z SREF plumes mean is 4-5" for most locations in northern IL north of 80 by Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well LOT going 2-4" tomorrow, sorry but I don't see that.Yea...More like a DAB to about 1"-ish.Put me down for a DAB at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well LOT going 2-4" tomorrow, sorry but I don't see that. reasoning behind it NEXT WELL-DEFINED CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST AT THE NOSE OF A WELL-DEFINED PV ANOMALY. THIS HAS SIMILAR ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE CHARACTERISTICS TO TODAYS CLIPPER TO OUR SOUTH...AS WELL AS MANY OF ITS PREDECESSORS THIS WINTER THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED GUIDANCE. WHILE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO HIGHER WITH QPF/SNOWFALL. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM...AND VORT ADVECTION AND TRANSIENT BUT STRONG OMEGA WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE THE KEY PLAYERS. THE INHERENT AIR MASS IS DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/F-GEN WING DEVELOPS EAST WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A HEALTHY AREA OF SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL ADVANCING INTO THE CWA BY LATE DAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THIS GIVEN HOW THESE WINGS OFTEN WORK. WITH THE CLIPPER CENTER PASSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVE...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIME FOR WHEN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE CWA. DO NOT SEE THINGS AS IDEAL AS WHAT HAPPENED IN CENTRAL IL TODAY...FOR INSTANCE LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND NOT AS GOOD SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE...HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A 2-4 INCH TYPE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN IL. WINDS LOOK TO BE 10 MPH OR LESS...KEEPING BLOWING SNOW TO A MINIMUM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Measured 1.8" here at my place. Pushes me over 60" for the season! Only saw one car spun out on the drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is on its own wrt the handling of Monday's system, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is on its own wrt the handling of Monday's system, Hopefully they meet in the middle, would look better for the southern half of Wisconsin. As of now, the NAM, GEM and Euro actually have the heaviest snow potential (though the marginal temps as well) just south of us, and the GFS N and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 reasoning behind it NEXT WELL-DEFINED CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST AT THE NOSE OF A WELL-DEFINED PV ANOMALY. THIS HAS SIMILAR ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE CHARACTERISTICS TO TODAYS CLIPPER TO OUR SOUTH...AS WELL AS MANY OF ITS PREDECESSORS THIS WINTER THAT HAVE OUTPERFORMED GUIDANCE. WHILE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO HIGHER WITH QPF/SNOWFALL. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM...AND VORT ADVECTION AND TRANSIENT BUT STRONG OMEGA WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE THE KEY PLAYERS. Can't play that card every time. Odds are it fails this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i'm way out of the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i'm way out of the loop You moved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 i'm way out of the loop <2" tomorrow and then cement potential on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hopefully they meet in the middle, would look better for the southern half of Wisconsin. As of now, the NAM, GEM and Euro actually have the heaviest snow potential (though the marginal temps as well) just south of us, and the GFS N and NW. Honestly, I hope a southern solution wins out since it would be a lot more interesting. Euro ensemble mean looks like it has the slp on the southern tip of Lake Michigan which is usually a favorable position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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